GOOG
Alphabet Inc.Close $384.90EOD onlyMax Pain
$390.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.95
2.8% from close
Price Gap
+5.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot
This page reflects GOOG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
GOOG Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.
Theta Verdict
Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate to Full
Primary: Sell put spreads and iron condors targeting 30-45 DTE, capitalizing on strong pinning and elevated IV.
Invalidation: Close below $280 (key support and next weekly max pain).
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +1 strong pinning; +1 normal IV; +1 spot at max pain; +0.5 bullish flow
IV Environment
IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 38.1% — Normal for GOOG. No VIX comparison provided.
Favorable?
Yes
Term structure: Humped at 5/01 (37.0%) and 5/08 (36.9%), ideal for 30-45 DTE premium sales.
💰IV ~38% provides attractive premium for selling.
📊IV term structure peaks at 29-36 DTE, perfect for theta harvesting.
Pin Risk Assessment
Spot vs MP: At max pain $292 (spot $294.46 is 0.8% above).
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$33.5M — mean-reverting)
OI concentrations: Major Put Walls: $330 (24k OI), $305 (21k OI), $320 (11k OI). Major Call Walls: $330 (18k OI), $320 (12k OI), $325 (11k OI).
Verdict: Highly Favorable — Strong pinning gamma and spot at max pain support consolidation, which benefits theta decay.
Premium Opportunities
#1
put spread
Sell $285 Put / Buy $280 Put, exp 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Strike is 3.7% below spot, outside the 8% expected move. Targets the $285 max pain for 4/10 and 4/24, a key support level. IV is richest at this expiration (37.0%). Strong pinning regime makes a sharp drop below this level unlikely.
Credit: $1.10-$1.40
Max loss: $3.60
BE: $283.60
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit entire position if GOOG closes below $282.50 (test of short strike). Do not roll.
#2
iron condor
Sell $285/$280 Put Spread & $310/$315 Call Spread, exp 2026-05-08 (36 DTE)
Defined-risk, non-directional play capitalizing on high IV (36.9%) and strong pinning. Short puts target $285 support; short calls target $310 resistance (above call OI wall). Range is within the 8.9% expected move but benefits from mean-reverting GEX.
Credit: $1.30-$1.60
Max loss: $3.40
BE: Puts: <$283.70, Calls: >$311.30
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage the losing side if tested; consider rolling untested side in for credit. Exit if price breaches either short strike.
#3
cash-secured put
Sell $280 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (43 DTE)
For sellers willing to take assignment. Strike is 5.0% below spot, aligns with the 4/02 weekly max pain, and provides high absolute premium (IV 35.6%). The strong pinning regime and bullish net premium flow (+$8.7M) make a sustained drop below this level less probable.
Credit: $6.50-$8.00
Max loss: $27200.00
BE: $273.50
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if tested, provided IV remains elevated. Aim to avoid assignment unless comfortable owning at $280.
#4
call credit spread
Sell $310 Call / Buy $315 Call, exp 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Capitalizes on the magnetic pull of the large $320 call OI wall and the expected move resistance (~$312.58). Spot is 5.3% below the short strike. IV of 32.3% is adequate, and the pinning regime favors resistance holding. Shorter DTE accelerates theta decay.
Credit: $0.85-$1.10
Max loss: $4.15
BE: $310.85
Mgmt: Close at 75% profit due to shorter DTE. Exit if GOOG closes above $308 (approaching the expected move).
Risk Alerts
!Earnings on 4/23/2026 (Est.): Within the 30-45 DTE window for recommended strategies. Close or roll out of positions before the announcement to avoid earnings volatility.
!Max Pain Trend is Falling: Aggregate max pain declines from $292 to $285 over later expirations. This could indicate a gradual downward magnetic pull over time.
!Unusual Call Activity: High volume in 4/10 $302.50 calls (8.6x OI) suggests bullish speculation in the near term. While not a direct threat, it indicates potential for upward volatility.
!Large, Distant OI Strikes: The $330 Put/Call and $305 Put have enormous OI (20k+). These could act as longer-term magnets if price makes a significant move.
!Net Premium Flow is Bullish (+$8.7M): More premium was collected on calls than puts, a contrarian bullish signal. While supportive of put selling, be aware it can precede volatility if the bet is wrong.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
How traders use them
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
What to remember
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.
If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.