thetaOwl

GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $429.57EOD only
Max Pain
$441.00
Next expiry Apr 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.19
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+11.43
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
26
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.54
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
GLD Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Short put credit spread — sell 7d ~1.0Δ put, buy 7d ~0.3–0.4Δ protection (example strikes ~430/425), max size 1–2% notional, leg hedge: buy 1x 2d ATM straddle if VIX spikes >+40% intraday; initial stop: close or roll if spot <435 or spread mark-to-market loss >30% of premium.
Invalidation: Spot decisively leaves 2d guardrails ($429–$441) or sudden VIX spike/IV repricing >+50%
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Underlying IV ~30 vs VIX ~18.9 — relative IV rich with short-dated dislocation
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Mixed term structure: very low same‑day ATM, elevated 2–9d skew (puts rich), longer dated vols ~24–26

📌Gamma pinning near max pain $438–$439
⚠️Short-dated put skew elevated (2–9d) — watch for pin risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+254.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$360.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,785 (17.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~17% below spot; max‑pain cluster $435–$439; call wall $475+

Verdict: Moderate pin risk — dealer GEX positive (~+$254M) supports pinning but flow can flip on large directional flows

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $410.00/$390.00 put spread
Sell 410/390 2026-05-15 put spread to collect premium with ~3–4pt wings limiting tail risk.
Credit: $1.57-$1.92
Max loss: $18.08
BE: $408.08
Mgmt: Size small, close/roll if spot <435 or spread loss >30% of premium; hedge with 2d ATM straddle if short‑dated IV jumps >30%.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $410.00/$390.00 put wing and $458.00/$475.00 call wing
Sell 410/390 put wing and 458/475 call wing 2026-05-15 to collect wider premium with limited risk.
Credit: $3.32-$4.06
Max loss: $15.94
BE: 405.94 / 462.06
Mgmt: Avoid short strikes inside 435–439; reduce size or widen wings if IV spikes >30% or VIX >26.
#3
Covered call
Buy shares + sell 2026-05-15 $455.00 call
Buy shares and sell 455 call 2026-05-15 to earn premium while retaining upside to strike.
Credit: $3.33-$4.07
Max loss: Stock downside to $0 less call premium
BE: $431.19
Mgmt: Monitor spot guardrails; close or roll if spot falls below 435 or IV reprices materially.

Risk Alerts

!Avoid/size down selling strikes inside $435–$439 cluster; prefer wings or lower notional when within cluster.
!Cut exposures or hedge if short‑dated IV rises >30% from baseline or if VIX >26 — buy protection (ATM straddle) or widen spreads.
!Exit/roll if spot closes <435 or intraday move >$3 against position; monitor dealer GEX and unwind if GEX falls materially.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.