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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $445.09EOD only

Max Pain

$433.00

Next expiry Apr 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.74

1.1% from close

Price Gap

-12.09

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.60

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 14, 2026 close

GLD Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5.5; +0.5 strong positive GEX pinning (+$294.7M); +0.0 mixed flow; -0.0 IV near-term muted vs avg IV; +0.0 broad market supportive (SPY/QQQ up)

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 32.9% vs VIX 18.36 — SPOT/near-term ATM IV is depressed relative to multi-term avg (near-term ATM 19.1%–27.6%) but overall IV is not elevated

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Term-structure: near-dated IVs are low (~19%–27%), front-week 1d/3d cheap; flattening ~25%–28% in 17–45 DTE window — decent roll premium on 30–45 DTE

💰Front-week ATM IV 19.1% (1d) to 24.1% (3d) is low, but 30–45 DTE sits ~27% so selling 30–45 DTE captures reasonable theta

📈Avg IV 32.9% vs VIX 18.36 signals option market has higher longer-dated vol expectations — supports selling short-dated wings and spreads

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $445.09 is above Max Pain ($433-$435) by $12.09 (~2.8%) — spot is above MP and EM upper bound

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$294.7M) — dealers have a strong short-gamma hedge profile that tends to magnet price to near-term pin levels

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Gamma flip sits near $360 — well below spot; dealer amplification of moves reverses below this level (structural tail risk far under current price)

OI concentrations: Large put OI wall at $360 (100,743 OI) and notable call walls $495-$595; near-term OI clusters at $440/$445/$455 with GEX magnets at $440 (+$11.9M), $445 (+$4.1M), $455 (+$12.1M)

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX and several near-spot GEX magnets (440/445/455) increase probability of pinning into the short-term expirations, which helps defined-risk credit positions on both sides (especially put-selling closer to support).

Premium Opportunities

put spread (cash-secured / defined-risk)

Sell 420/415 put spread exp 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)

45 DTE captures elevated mid-term term premium (~27% ATM) while staying far above the large structural put wall at $360 and inside dealer pinning range (GEX magnets at 440/445/455). 420 is well above the big put floor and sits inside expected 45d lower bound ($411.56 - $478.61), giving a favorable probability of expiring OTM.

Credit: $0.90-$1.20

Max loss: $4.10

BE: 420 - credit (approx $419.10-$419.40)

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit; roll down and out if price tests 420 with <10 DTE (prefer roll to 415/410 +30–45 DTE); cut loss (buy to close) if GLD closes below $415 on daily basis or if spreads trade >60% of max loss.

iron condor (defined-risk)

Sell 430/425 put spread and sell 465/470 call spread exp 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)

Wide 5-point wings on both sides let you collect elevated 45d theta while centering the wings around dealer pinning zone (short puts inside 430 near MP profile and short calls well below the heavy call OI walls at 495+). Positive GEX supports staying rangebound between 430–465 through expiry.

Credit: $0.95-$1.40

Max loss: $3.10

BE: Lower: ~429.05–429.10; Upper: ~466.10–466.45 (depends on realized credit)

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if either short strike is tested (daily close inside the short strike), hedge or roll that side wider by 5–10 points out and +30–45 DTE; buy to close if either short wing reaches 80% of max loss.

covered call

Buy 100 shares GLD and sell 450 call exp 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)

Covered call yields are attractive vs cash alternative because 45d 450 calls are bid ~4.70 mid for nearby expirations and longer-dated IV supports decent premium; GEX pinning toward 440–445 reduces chance of large upside gap to the short strike while collecting theta.

Credit: $4.00-$5.50

Max loss: Underlying downside (offset by premium) — unlimited to downside; practical risk managed via stop/put protection

BE: 445.09 - premium received (approx $440.09–$441.09)

Mgmt: Take profit on short call at 50% of premium collected; if GLD rallies and tests 450 (daily close >=450), consider buy-write roll up-and-out to 455/465 +30–45 DTE or close covered position; if GLD falls below 430, consider buying protective puts or closing the long stock leg.

short call spread (defined-risk call spread)

Sell 455/460 call spread exp 2026-04-24 or 2026-04-22 (8–10 DTE) — weekly defined-risk if you prefer shorter DTE

Near-term GEX magnets at 455 and heavy call flow around 440/445/455 imply dealers may cap upside into the next week; short 455/460 collects strong weekly premium (chain shows 455 call mid ~3.05 for nearer expirations) while risk is defined. Use weekly only because front-week IV is low but dealer pinning increases probability of expiration OTM.

Credit: $1.00-$1.40

Max loss: $3.00

BE: Upper breakeven ~456–458 depending on credit

Mgmt: Close at 60% of max profit; if price trades above 455 on daily close, roll up-and-out or buy to close when spread trades >50% of max loss; avoid naked shorts into weekly if unexpected flow spikes occur (monitor unusual activity).

Risk Alerts

!Strong dealer pinning: Total GEX +$294.7M — while favorable for rangebound premium sellers, sudden gamma unwinds can amplify moves if GEX flips or large directional flow hits.

!Unusual call flow: Significant ITM short-dated call activity around Apr-24 (440/442/444 calls high volume/OI) — possible directional positioning into the April 24/22 expiries that could steepen upside moves near those strikes.

!Net premium negative (-$68.5M): option market buyers are paying premium overall in recent flow — indicates some directional buying pressure exists that could challenge short calls if it accelerates.

!IV term mismatch: Front-week IV is unusually low (1d ATM 19.1%, 3d 24.1%) — selling very front-week naked premium gives little edge; prefer 30–45 DTE defined-risk structures.

!Gamma flip / structural tail: Gamma flip ~ $360 and large put wall at $360 (100,743 OI) — if price collapses toward that region, dealer dynamics change and downside acceleration risk increases; close or hedge credits well before large moves toward $360.

Read the Theta analysis for GLD for 2026-04-14. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.