thetaOwl

GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $445.93EOD only
Max Pain
$440.00
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.24
1.2% from close
Price Gap
-5.93
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
71
High premium
P/C OI
0.55
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
GLD Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: N/A
Invalidation: Sustained break below $435 or above $448 with rising ATM IV / heavy flow reversals
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV ~30–31% vs VIX 18.9 — IV elevated vs equity VIX; front‑dated IV fragile, so realized repricing risk is elevated.
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Collapsed same‑day ATM (~4%) then steepens into late April/early May with put skew; front‑dated term fragile.

📌Max‑pain cluster near $443/$440 supporting pin risk
⚠️Dealer GEX net +$334M — high gamma concentration can reinforce pinning near strikes but amplifies reprice risk if dealers hedge unwind

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+334.3M)

Gamma flip: ~$360.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,703 (18.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~18.6% below spot; gamma flip ~360; max‑pain pins: $443/$440/$436.

Verdict: Moderate‑high pin probability into listed expiries — pressure toward $443/$440 absent shock moves.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $443.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $445.00 call
Expresses edge of elevated back IV vs weak front IV; collects short-term premium against longer call tail.
Debit: $3.60-$4.40
Max loss: $4.40
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Buy back short if price breaks above 448 or IV spikes; trim long if sustained move invalidates pin. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.
#2
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $422.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $420.00 put
Sells fragile near-term downside premium while holding longer-dated protection to limit risk.
Debit: $2.52-$3.08
Max loss: $3.08
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close or roll if price falls below 421.7 or realized vol jumps; tighten if dealer flow reverses.
#3
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal
Buy 2026-10-16 $445.00 call + sell 2026-06-18 $445.00 call
Funds LEAP by selling nearer-term calls to lower cost basis while retaining long upside optionality.
Debit: $14.74-$18.01
Max loss: $18.01
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Watch IV; unwind short or roll if front IV widens or price trends above invalidation.

Risk Alerts

!Breakout beyond 2d guardrails $435.56/$448.61 invalidates pin thesis
!Rapid VIX/IV lift would widen options repricing and punish short premium
!Dealer GEX unwind or heavy directional buying could flip pin into trending move
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.