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GLD

SPDR Gold SharesClose $411.95EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry Jun 3, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.52

0.8% from close

Price Gap

-1.95

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.56

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GLD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 2, 2026 close

GLD Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

ATM IV 21.5% (2d) rising to ~26.1% (16d) vs VIX 18.17 — short-term IV is richer than spot VIX and term structure shows elevated front-to-30d vols (~21% → ~27%).

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-week (2–9d) ATM IV: 21.5% → 25.9%; 16–37d range ~26.1%–28.4% — mild contango favoring sellers of near- and mid-term premium.

💰Avg IV 32.8% vs VIX 18.17 and short-term ATMs 21%–26% — skew and term shape give decent credits for sellers.

⚖️IV very depressed at 0d (7.3%) for today expiry — avoid selling into same-day expirations where quote IV is artificially low.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+338.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,666 (18.3% below spot)

OI concentrations: Strong near-term GEX concentrations at $440.00, $441.00, $442.00 (largest +$12.8M at $441.00 and +$10.3M at $440.00) and Max Pain clustered at $435 across expirations. Note: dealers show large positive GEX (+$338.7M) while flow metrics show net premium selling (-$274.5M) — dealers are positioned to pin but flow is slightly bearish, creating both stability near pins and a risk of directional pressure if sellers accelerate.

Verdict: Conditional — pinning is likely given concentrated GEX near spot, which favors defined-risk short premium; however persistent net-premium selling and negative net premium flow introduce a contrasting directional tail risk, so prefer defined-risk structures and tighter management.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-01 $428.00/$409.00 put spread

Sell a short put and buy a protective put 10 points lower 16–37d out to collect premium while keeping risk limited if the pin fails.

Credit: $2.80-$3.42

Max loss: $15.58

BE: $424.58

Mgmt: Close at 50–65% of max profit; cut on daily close below $433.78 (2d EM) or ahead of 4/17 earnings

Covered call

Buy shares + sell 2026-04-24 $456.00 call

Own GLD and sell a 9–30d call with ~0.20–0.30 delta to harvest theta while dealer GEX helps mute intraday moves.

Credit: $1.81-$2.21

Max loss: Stock downside to $0 less call premium

BE: $438.25

Mgmt: Roll up or close if GLD approaches resistance $459.73–$475 or if assigned unexpectedly

Risk Alerts

!Earnings/expected-move windows: 2026-04-17 (2d ±$6.68, 1.5%) and 2026-04-20 (5d ±$8.97, 2.0%) — avoid naked short premium through these dates.

!Tight pin corridor: Max Pain $435 vs spot $440.46 — a breach below 2d EM $433.78 can trigger accelerated selling despite current pinning (cut credit positions if close < $433.78).

!Gamma flip near ~$360 (puts concentration 18.3% below spot) — a sustained trend to that level would remove dealer pinning and create large tail risk; maintain defined-risk structures.

!Unusual activity in near-week calls: heavy OI/flow at $441/$443 (4/24 exp) — could indicate dealer hedging and short-covering dynamics; monitor liquidity/volatility in those strikes.

!Low same-day IV: 0d ATM IV 7.3% — avoid selling same-day premium where IV is artificially compressed and bid/ask spreads may be misleading.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.