Term structure: Near-term IV elevated; 3d ATM 31%, 9d 27%. Slight backwardation in mid-expirations.
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Trending ($-208.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,414 (7.8% below spot)
OI concentrations: Heavy OI at $35 (weekly MP), $38 (June18 MP), $36 (June26 MP). Put floor $32, call wall $37-$40.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $35.00/$33.00 put spread
Sell Jul17 $35/$33 put spread to collect premium from elevated IV, with support at $34 providing buffer.
Mgmt: Exit if FXI breaks below $34; consider rolling down if tested early. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (122%).
#2Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $37.00/$39.00 call spread
Sell Jul17 $37/$39 call spread to profit from capped upside, using IV premium.
Mgmt: Exit if FXI rallies above $37; adjust if IV spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (113%).
!IV elevated vs VIX, attractive but volatile
!Negative gamma exposure $208.5M could cause sharp hedging
!Near-expiration pin risk at $35, $38, $36