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FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.52EOD only

Max Pain

$36.50

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.75

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+0.98

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

FXI Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 6.5; +1 clear OI/GEX pin magnets at $36-$37; -1 negative GEX (trend) increases tail risk; -0.5 spot 3.7% from MP

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

ATM Avg IV 31.8% vs VIX (not provided) — IV is moderate for FXI

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Very short-dated IV (2026-04-10 1d ATM = 74.1%) is spiking; term structure flattens ~25–29% in the 3–12 week window (e.g. 2026-05-15 ATM 26.4%) — good for selling multi-week premium while avoiding 1–2 day event risk

⚖️Avg IV 31.8% — moderate, gives reasonable theta but not extreme wing pricing

⏳1d ATM IV 74.1% (2026-04-10) signals a large short-term event/flow — avoid naked short exposure into that date

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above (spot $36.29 vs max pain near-term $35; pre-computed: spot 3.7% from MP)

GEX regime: Trending (GEX -28.9M) — negative total GEX suggests dealers are short gamma and may lean into trends rather than pinning

Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Gamma flip ≈ $32 — below this level dealer hedging behavior flips, amplifying moves and increasing tail risk for short premium

OI concentrations: Large OI: $37 PUT OI=152,579; $32 PUT OI=119,585; $40 CALL OI=118,368; $36 PUT OI=116,122 — pin magnets at $37 (+2.0% from spot), $36 (-0.8%), $36.50 (+0.6%) per GEX concentration

Verdict: Mixed-to-unfavorable for broad naked credit selling. Trending negative GEX increases risk of directional moves, but strong put-call OI magnets at $36–$37 create nearby support levels that can be used for defined-risk short put spreads.

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell 35 / 32 put spread 2026-05-15 (36 DTE)

30–45 DTE on moderate IV (May 15 ATM 26.4%) captures steady theta while short strike (35) sits above several put OI clusters and near max-pain progression. Defined risk protects against trending gamma (GEX -28.9M).

Credit: $0.90-$1.30

Max loss: $2.10

BE: 35.00 - credit (approx $34.10 - $34.55)

Mgmt: Take profit at 60–70% of max credit; roll down and widen if spot approaches short strike and position <30% max loss; cut losses at 50% of max loss or if spot closes below $34 (near the 2-week lower bound $34.85)

iron condor

Sell 34P / 32P and 38C / 40C 2026-05-15 (36 DTE)

Uses put OI support (34–35 area) and call OI resistance (40) to create a neutral defined-risk structure. Good for collecting two-sided theta while limiting exposure to a directional gap given negative GEX.

Credit: $1.10-$1.60

Max loss: $2.90

BE: put side ~ (34 - credit) / call side ~ (40 + credit) — approx 32.4 / 41.6 using mid credit

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit; close or roll wings outward if either short strike is touched intraday; tighten stop if spot moves toward gamma flip ($32)

cash-secured put (CSP)

Sell 35 put 2026-05-15 (36 DTE)

If you want to own FXI at ~35, selling the 35 put collects decent premium with support from nearby put OI (35/34). This is conservative relative to naked puts because it's cash-secured and uses the OI pinning.

Credit: $0.60-$0.90

Max loss: Spot - strike + received credit (if assigned) — approx $36.29 - 35 - credit => position-level loss depends on assignment

BE: 35.00 - credit (approx $34.10 - $34.40)

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–60% of collected premium; roll down and out if put goes ITM and you want to avoid assignment; close if price < $33.50 or below gamma flip trigger

covered call

Sell 37 call 2026-05-15 (36 DTE) against long shares

Modest upside collected via selling 37C just above current spot; 37 is a strong short-call OI area and near-term max pain moves toward $36–$37, so covered calls can harvest theta while limiting assignment risk until price approaches the $37 call wall.

Credit: $0.35-$0.60

Max loss: Underlying position downside (unlimited) minus premium received

BE: Cost basis - premium

Mgmt: Close at 50–75% profit or buy back if FXI nears $36.50–$37.00; avoid if you expect large short-term event (see 1d IV spike)

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip ≈ $32 — dealer behavior changes below this level; exit or hedge credits if price approaches $32

!Very high 1d ATM IV (2026-04-10 = 74.1%) — avoid selling naked into that near-dated volatility spike (possible event/flow)

!Total GEX negative (-$28.9M) -> trending regime; short premium can be caught by accelerated moves

!Net premium flow negative (-$3.6M) and heavy put premium flow at $35/$36/$40 — asymmetric flow may precede directional moves

!Max pain is rising across expirations ($35 → $36 → $37) — dealer pinning trend could shift fair value; manage wings as MP moves

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.