FIGR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Outlook

Neutral-to-slight-bullish with a pinning magnet above into the mid-$30s; Confidence: 4.0/10. Primary supports: positive GEX pin concentration at $34–$35, heavy put OI at the $30 strike (5,476) that creates dealer hedging, and very high ATM IV (avg 102.4%) favoring premium sellers; conflicts: spot is below max-pain and MP trend is falling (weakening upside gravity) and net premium is negative (-$1.4M) indicating recent sell-side flow.

Confidence:

4 / 10

Base score 4.0 (pre-computed); drivers: +GEX pinning, -spot 8.1% below MP, -mixed flow/net premium; no single imminent catalyst found so no override.

Supports: GEX +$1.3M concentrated at $34/$35/$31; $30 put OI 5,476 creating dealer buying into weakness; 2d EM lower bound $28.42 providing near-term floor.
Conflicts: Spot sits below nearby MP levels ($33.50–$35.00) and net premium -$1.4M/P-C vol 0.50 points to recent directional selling; mixed flow including large tail call buys at high strikes introduces asymmetric upside risk.

📌Gamma flip near $30 — dealers will materially rebalance if spot crosses ~$30

📈ATM IV elevated (104.9% 4/10) vs 10–45d 89–94% — front-end rich, favors front-month premium sale

🔍Unusual: 4/10 $35 call block (Vol 2,101 vs OI 437) — buying into the $35 pin

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV: ATM 4/10 104.9% and avg IV 102.4% — options are rich, which structurally favors selling premium if you accept directional gamma risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: modest positive total GEX $+1.3M with concentrated GEX at $34 (172K), $35 (554K) and $31 (173K) — dealers are likely to hedge toward those levels, creating an intra-range magnet.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium -$1.4M (net sell pressure) with P/C vol 0.50 — retail put activity exists but larger-sized institutional activity includes both large put OI and big dollar call tail buys (net call premium at high strikes).

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $30.77 sits below near-term max pains ($33.50 on 4/10 → $35 on 4/17) which reduces upward pin gravity but concentrated GEX still injects mid-$30s magnetism.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across multiple expirations (34/35 show in 4/10–4/24, MP trend falls over 10 expirations) — trade with 30–45 DTE as primary horizon, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$28.42$33.12

Dealer pinning and a gamma flip at ~$30 compress downside; break below $28.42 (2d EM lower) accelerates selling.

Next 1 week

$26.95$34.60

Max pain 4/10 $33.50 and concentrated GEX at $34–$35 pull spot higher absent fresh negative flow; close < $26.95 widens range lower.

Next 2 weeks

$26.05$35.50

MPs at $31–$35 across expiries and elevated IV create range where selling premium is favored unless large directional flow arrives.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $34 (2026-04-10); $35 (2026-04-17); $32 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $28.42/$33.12; 1w $26.95/$34.60

Support: $30.00 · $29.00 · $28.42

Resistance: $33.00 · $32.50 · $31.00

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,476 (2.5% below spot)

Structural: Structural call wall at $35–$45 caps large upside; structural put floor concentrated at $25 is far below current spot and only matters for deep downside hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.3M

DEX: +3.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,476 (2.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term dealer gamma net +$1.3M concentrated at $34/$35 (large pin attractors) and a smaller +$173K at $31; crossing down 2% (~$30.16) would force dealers to buy stock (put gamma increases), crossing up 2% (~$31.39) reduces dealer short-call hedges and can relieve upside squeeze — both moves compress realized range near the flip.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is very rich (avg IV 102.4%; front-day 4/10 ATM 104.9%) — elevated vs typical equities and favors selling if you can manage gamma.

Term structure: Front-end term structure slopes down after 4/10: 4/10 ATM 104.9% → 4/17 93.8% → 4/24 88.9% then flattens ~92–94% into May; front-month premium is most expensive.

Skew: Large call IV at $35 (134.8%) vs ATM suggests specific demand; calendar/diagonal selling of the front-month (higher IV) into cheaper 30–45d strikes shows a vol-pt edge (~+11 vol-pts selling 4/10 vs buying 5/15 at ATM).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$1.4M (net sell pressure) with P/C volume 0.50 — heavier call-side dollar flow at high strikes and concentrated put OI at $30 indicates mixed institutional hedging vs directional selling.

Directional prints: 134.8 call 35 OTM 2026-04-10 — 4/10 $35 call unusual block Vol=2,101 vs OI=437 (4.8x) — could be directional buy (bull call) or long-dated sell/roll; current mix and heavy put OI make directional buy more consistent.

Unusual: 134.8 call 35 OTM 2026-04-10 — Large front-month call print concentrated at the $35 pin — indicates aggressive upside exposure or structured flow; interpret as call-buy leaning given net premium and IV profile.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip sits near $30 — a clean break lower forces dealer re-hedging and can cascade realized downside

!Front-month expiry and pins at $33.50–$35 within the next two weeks create expiry-pin churn and potential IV spikes

!High IV + thin chain vs large strikes (open interest concentrated) implies liquidity/Execution risk and large slippage on fills

!Unexpected macro/sector sell-off would invert current selling-edge thesis and blow out short-premium positions

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $30.77	High capital and downside to gamma flip ~$30
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — mixed flow and pinning create mean-reversion risk	Pin magnet to mid-$30s can cause short gamma pain
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 $35 call	Upside capped at $35; early assignment into earnings risk
Cash-secured put / Put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $30/$28 put spread	Break of $30/gamma flip accelerates losses
Long calls	Weak	Buy 2026-04-10 $35 call (expensive IV) — not recommended	Front-month vol crush and high IV make long calls costly
Long puts / Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-17 $31/$29 bear put spread	High IV increases cost; limited edge absent clear down catalyst
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 put 28 / buy 26 ; sell 2026-05-15 call 33 / buy 35 (defined-risk IC 38 DTE)	Front-month pin/large call prints can push spot through wings; IV collapse/re-pricing risk on early expiry
Call spread (vertical)	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-17 33/35 call spread	Unusual $35 call flow and pinning could make this blow up short-term
Front-month calendar/diagonal (sell high-IV front)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-10 $31 call, buy 2026-05-15 $31 call (sell higher IV front-month)	If spot gaps through sold strike into expiry, short front leg gamma is painful

Top Plays

Sell 4/17 $30/$28 put spread

Sell 2026-04-17 $30/$28 put spread

Collect front-week elevated premium against strong put OI at $30 and gamma flip near $30; short spread benefits if pin holds above flip.

Credit: $0.70-$1.10

Max loss: $18.30

BE: $29.30

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $29.00 or VIX >30.

Defined-risk premium collectors who accept expiry gamma

May iron condor 28/26P x 33/35C

Sell 2026-05-15 28/26 put spread and 33/35 call spread (defined-risk IC)

Multi-week trade using positive GEX pinning and high front IV to collect sizable premium while giving room to the EM bounds ($26.95–$34.60 1w); 38 DTE reduces front-week pin churn.

Credit: $1.50-$2.20

Max loss: $198.50

BE: $30.50–$31.20 (range dependent)

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max credit; hedge or roll if spot trades inside short wing within 10 DTE.

Accounts wanting defined risk with multi-week horizon

Front-month diagonal (sell 4/10 $31 call, buy 5/15 $31 call)

Sell 2026-04-10 $31 call, buy 2026-05-15 $31 call

Sell the most expensive front-month IV (104.9%) and buy cheaper 38d IV (~93.7%) — approx +11 vol-pt edge; offers directional upside participation with limited roll cost.

Credit: $0.40-$0.85

Max loss: Limited to net debit if executed as debit/credit combo

BE: Varies by net; monitor front-week pin risks

Mgmt: Close front short leg into 4/10 expiry if spot > short strike or IV collapses; take profits on 50% decay.

Traders wanting to monetize front-month rich IV while keeping upside exposure

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $30.00 and holds 30 minutes above $30.00 → Sell 2026-04-17 $30/$28 put spread

IFIf spot trades into $32.50–$33.00 and front IV remains >100% → Sell 2026-05-15 iron condor 28/26P x 33/35C

IFIf 4/10 $35 call prints continue (Vol/OI >3x) and spot < $33.50 → Buy protective 2026-04-17 $33 put or widen call spread wings for existing shorts

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot moves +2% (~$31.39) through dealer hedging levels → Trim short-call exposure and roll sold call spreads up one strike and out to 5/15

ADJIf spot moves -2% (~$30.16) and front VIX/IV spikes > +10 vol-pts → Buy back front-month short premium (close put spreads) and initiate protective puts 31/29

Exit Triggers

EXITIf any short-premium trade reaches 50–60% of max profit → Close half or full position to lock gains

EXITIf spot < $28.42 (2d EM lower) or VIX >30 → Exit all short-premium and cut position risk

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: sell premium around the pin into the mid-$30s with multi-week bias; invalidation is a clean break below $28.42 (2d EM lower) or sustained spot < $30 (gamma flip). Top plays: short front-week put spread (defined-risk), 38‑DTE iron condor (multi-week defined risk), and a front-month sell/buy diagonal (sell rich front IV) — choose based on time horizon and tolerance for expiry gamma.

Read the Directional analysis for FIGR for 2026-04-07. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.