FIGR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026

Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward tug toward $33.50-$34 into Friday expiry, but negative gamma and mixed flow continue to favor volatility and a drift lower over the next week. Confidence: 6.0/10. The strongest signals are negative GEX (-$117K) supporting trending moves, astronomically high IV (114.5%) offering premium selling edge, and spot below near-term max pain creating short-term gravity.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX negative, net prem negative); -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP; -0.5 for moderate OI/liquidity. No override: mechanical score captures the conflicting forces of pin gravity vs. trending regime.

Supports: Negative GEX (-$117K) trending regime, extreme IV (114.5%) for premium sellers, spot below near-term max pain ($33.50).
Conflicts: Mixed flow (net prem -$1.0M, P/C vol 0.50), max pain ladder shows no clear directional trend, massive OI walls create structural friction.

📉GEX -$117K: dealers amplify moves — trending regime persists

💰IV 114.5%: extreme single-stock premium — selling has edge

🎯Spot $31.94 vs MP $33.50: upward gravitational pull into Friday

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 114.5% — extremely elevated, offering strong edge for premium sellers who can manage gamma risk.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$117K negative — trending regime persists; dealers amplify price moves, not dampen them.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$1.0M with P/C vol 0.50 — mixed; some call buying but large put premium flows dominate.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $31.94 is 4.7% below 3/27 max pain $33.50 — creates a mild upward pinning force into Friday expiry.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX persists, max pain ladder shows no consistent directional trend across expirations, and extreme IV is structural. The regime isn't tied to a single event expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$30.34$33.54

Max pain pin and EM upper bound; break below $30.34 invalidates and targets $30 gamma flip.

Next 1 week

$28.47$35.42

EM bounds $28.47-$35.42; negative gamma favors probing lower bounds, but $35 max pain (4/02) caps.

Next 2 weeks

$27.12$36.77

Range $27.12-$36.77; negative gamma and put OI at $25/$30 support a drift lower over time.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $34 (2026-03-27); $35 (2026-04-02); $33 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $30.34/$33.54; 1w $28.47/$35.42

Support: $30.00 · $25.00

Resistance: $50.00 · $40.00 · $45.00

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,661

Structural: Massive call OI wall $35-$70 caps long-term upside; put floor $25-$30 provides distant but heavy support. The $30 level is critical near-term (gamma flip & major OI).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-117K

DEX: +3.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,661)

NTM gamma: Put gamma dominates at $30 (5,661 OI). Below $30, dealer gamma becomes more negative, accelerating selling. Above $32, call gamma is lighter, offering less resistance to rallies.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 114.5% — astronomically high vs any reasonable VIX (likely 20-30). FIGR is trading at 4-5x market vol, creating a massive premium selling opportunity.

Term structure: Steep front-month decay: 0d 119.7% > 6d 98.4% > 14d 93.5%. Elevated IV persists across curve with a hump at 5/15 (97.1%).

Skew: Extreme put skew at low strikes ($25-$30) vs calls. Selling OTM puts captures huge premium but carries tail risk to the $25 OI wall.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$1.0M slightly bearish; P/C vol 0.50 shows equal call/put volume but OI ratio 0.65 indicates more put positions open.

Directional prints: 1) $32C 3/27: Vol 210 vs OI 63 (3.3x) at 116.8% IV — could be speculative call buying or covered call writing. Given mixed flow, side unclear. 2) $32C 4/24: Vol 200 vs OI 100 (2.0x) at 94.3% IV — similar ambiguity, but longer-dated suggests possible LEAPS hedging or diagonal setup. 3) $31C 4/02: Vol 131 vs OI 81 (1.6x) at 104.6% IV — likely bullish positioning given strike above spot. One line for structural/hedging: Large put premium flows at $40, $75, $65 strikes dominate net premium, suggesting institutional downside protection or speculative short put selling.

Unusual: The sheer scale of premium at OTM puts ($40, $75, $65) is unusual — represents either massive protective buying or very aggressive short put selling into high IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$30: Break below accelerates downside momentum as dealer hedging shifts.

!IV crush: 114.5% IV is unsustainable long-term — long premium positions face severe decay.

!Max pain pin into Friday: Upward squeeze to $33.50 threatens near-term bearish positions.

!Macro decoupling: FIGR's extreme vol may be idiosyncratic; a broad market rally could spark a violent short squeeze toward $35.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Avoid. Negative gamma regime amplifies downside; better to sell premium or use defined-risk directional plays.	Accelerated selling on moves below $30.
Short stock	Moderate	Entry $32-33, stop above $34. Target $30 then $25. Aligns with negative gamma but faces max pain gravity.	Upward pin to $33.50-$34 creates squeeze risk, especially into Friday.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	If long shares, sell 4/17 $35 calls for ~$2.00+ credit. Captures high IV and targets resistance.	Stock breaks below $30 — loss on shares outweighs premium.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell 4/17 $30/$25 put spread. Credit ~$1.80-$2.20. Targets $25 OI support.	Break below $25 exposes max loss; negative gamma accelerates move.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid. High IV and negative gamma make long premium expensive and directional moves harder.	IV crush and time decay erode value even if spot moves up.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Strong	Buy 4/17 $32/$27 bear put spread. Debit ~$2.00-$2.50. Targets move to $30 gamma flip.	Max pain pin upward creates headwind; time decay in high IV environment.
Iron condor	Weak	Avoid. Negative GEX regime is not suitable for range-bound strategies; gamma trending breaks ranges.	High probability of a wing being breached.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Reverse calendar: Sell 5/01 $35 call (IV 91.7%), buy 4/17 $35 call (IV 91.8%). Credit minimal. Better: Sell 3/27 $33 call (IV 119.7%), buy 4/02 $33 call (IV 98.4%).	Directional move through short strike loses.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy Jan 2027 $25 call (~$8.00), sell 4/17 $35 calls against it. Captures IV differential (88.8% vs 91.8%) and time.	Stock stays below $35 — long LEAPS decays slowly.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell 4/17 $30/$25 put spread

Strong edge: Sells extreme IV (91.8%) in a negative gamma regime that amplifies moves, with defined risk down to the $25 OI support wall. Better than naked put due to risk definition in a volatile, trending name.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $320.00

BE: $28.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-60% of max credit ($1.00-$1.10 remaining). Roll down/out if $30 is breached. Exit if spot closes above $34.

Traders with a neutral-to-bearish bias seeking high premium capture with defined risk.

Bear Put Spread (Directional)

Buy 4/17 $32/$27 bear put spread

Moderate-Strong edge: Direct expression of the negative gamma trending regime, targeting the $30 gamma flip and $25 support. Defined risk caps loss if the max pain pin squeezes higher. Better than long puts due to lower cost in high IV environment.

Debit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $250.00

BE: $30.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% max profit (spread worth $3.75). Stop out if spot closes above $34. Manage delta at $30 gamma flip.

Directional bears wanting leveraged downside exposure with capped risk.

LEAPS Diagonal (Patient Bull)

Buy Jan 2027 $25 call, sell 4/17 $35 calls

Moderate-Strong edge for a longer timeframe: Captures the IV differential (88.8% vs 91.8%) while positioning for eventual mean reversion toward $35+ over months. The 295 DTE avoids the weekly max pain battles and negative gamma headwinds, improving risk/reward for a patient recovery thesis versus a near-term long call.

Debit: $6.50-$7.50

Max loss: $650.00

BE: $31.50

Mgmt: Roll short calls at 21 DTE, preferably for a credit. Take profit on the diagonal if spot reclaims $35. Exit if $25 support breaks.

Patient bulls expecting eventual recovery, willing to manage short calls monthly.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $33.50 (3/27 max pain) and stalls on low volume → Sell 4/02 $34/$39 call spread for a credit, targeting resistance at $35 MP.

IFIf spot breaks below $30.34 (2d EM low) and holds for 1 hour → Enter bear put spread: Buy 4/10 $30/$25 puts, targeting $25 support.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf short the 4/17 $30/$25 put spread and spot approaches $30.50 → Roll spread down to $27.50/$22.50 for a net credit, moving risk away from gamma flip.

ADJIf long the LEAPS diagonal and spot rallies to $34 → Roll short 4/17 $35 call to a 5/01 $37.50 call for a credit, following resistance higher.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes above $34 (breaching near-term max pain) → Exit all bearish positions (short puts, bear put spreads) — pin gravity is winning.

EXITIf IV on 30-45 DTE options drops below 80% (significant crush) → Take profits on all short premium positions (put spreads, covered calls).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Negative gamma trending persists within a wide, volatile range, with a slight near-term upward pull toward $33.50 max pain. Invalidation for bears is a close above $34. The regime favors selling high IV premium with defined risk (put spreads) or taking defined-risk directional bets (bear put spreads). Top plays: 1) Put spread for premium sellers, 2) Bear put spread for directional bears, 3) LEAPS diagonal for patient bulls expecting eventual mean reversion.

Read the Directional analysis for FIGR for 2026-03-26. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.