FIGR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 30, 2026

Outlook

Neutral with a weak upward drift toward $33-$34, but conviction remains low due to extreme volatility and conflicting signals. Confidence: 4.5/10. The strongest signals are positive GEX (+$935K) creating a pinning regime and spot below near-term max pain, but these are contradicted by negative net premium flow and a falling max pain trend.

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

Base 4.5; GEX positive (pinning) and spot below MP provide a weak bullish pull, but negative net premium and falling MP trend create headwinds. No override: mechanical score captures the muddled picture.

Supports: GEX +$935K (pinning), spot below 3/27 MP ($33), P/C vol 0.52 (call volume dominance).
Conflicts: Net premium -$1.1M (bearish flow), falling max pain trend ($33 → $32), extreme IV (98.5%) creates noise.

📌GEX +$935K — pinning regime in force, dampening moves

⚠️Net premium -$1.1M contradicts GEX — flow vs. positioning mismatch

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 98.5% — extreme, offering edge for premium sellers who can manage pin risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$935K positive — pinning regime; dealers dampen moves, gravitating toward $30-$33.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$1.1M with P/C vol 0.52 — mixed with a bearish tilt; call volume dominates but large put premium flows.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $31.43 is 4.8% below 3/27 max pain $33 — creates upward gravitational pull into Friday.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX regime shift is significant, but max pain ladder shows no consistent directional trend across expirations. Extreme IV is a structural feature. The pinning force may persist beyond a single expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$27.28$35.58

Max pain pin dominates; break below $30 gamma flip invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $33 (2026-03-27); $34 (2026-04-02); $32 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails:

Support: $30.00 · $25.00

Resistance: $40.00 · $50.00 · $40.00

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,676

Structural: Massive call OI wall $35-$70 caps long-term upside; put floor $25 provides heavy but distant support. The $30 level is critical near-term (gamma flip & major OI).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+935K

DEX: +3.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$30 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,676)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated near $30 (5,676 put OI). Below $30, dealer gamma flips negative, accelerating selling. Above $32, call gamma is lighter, offering less resistance to rallies.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 98.5% — extreme vs any reasonable VIX, offering premium selling edge.

Term structure: Humped: 4/02 97.0% > 4/10 91.2% > 5/01 96.0%. Elevated across curve with a kink at 5/01 (earnings).

Skew: Front-week (4/02) IV ~6 vol points richer than 4/10 — supports selling near-term premium against longer-dated.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$1.1M bearish; P/C vol 0.52 shows call volume dominance, but OI ratio 0.54 indicates more put positions open.

Directional prints: 1) $30C 4/17: $371K net premium positive — could be bullish call buying or short put covering. Given mixed flow, side unclear. 2) $37C 4/10: Vol 496 vs OI 123 (4.0x) at 92% IV — likely speculative call buying given strike above spot and max pain. One line for structural/hedging: Large negative premium flows at OTM puts ($40, $75, $70) dominate net, suggesting institutional downside protection or aggressive short put selling.

Unusual: The $30 strike shows massive positive call premium ($329K) alongside the largest put OI (5,676) — a classic pinning battleground.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$30: Break below accelerates downside as dealer hedging shifts from stabilizing to amplifying.

!IV crush from 98.5%: Long premium faces severe decay; short premium faces pin risk.

!Friday expiry releases pin: The $33 max pain gravity disappears, potentially widening the range.

!Earnings on 5/15: Creates a volatility kink in the term structure; event risk increases near that date.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Avoid. Extreme vol and pinning regime offer better alternatives.	Idiosyncratic volatility without premium capture.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Entry $32-33, stop above $34. Target $30. Aligns with negative flow but fights GEX pin.	Upward squeeze to $33-$34 max pain.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	If long shares, sell 4/17 $35 call for ~$1.50 credit. Captures high IV, targets resistance.	Stock breaks below $30 — loss on shares outweighs premium.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 $30/$25 put spread. Credit ~$1.50-$1.80. Targets $25 OI support, benefits from pinning GEX.	Break below $25 OI wall.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid. High IV and pinning regime make directional long premium expensive.	IV crush and time decay even if spot drifts up.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate	Buy 4/17 $32/$27 bear put spread. Debit ~$2.00. Targets move to $30 gamma flip.	GEX pin upward to $33 creates headwind.
Iron condor	Moderate	$27/$25P x $35/$37C 4/17. Credit ~$0.80. Uses EM bounds and GEX pinning.	Break of $30 or $35 invalidates.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell 4/02 $33 call (IV 97.0%), buy 4/10 $33 call (IV 91.2%). Credit ~$0.30. Captures front-week richness.	Spot moves through $33.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy Jan 2027 $25 call (~$7.50), sell 4/17 $35 calls against it. Captures IV differential (89.0% vs 87.8%).	Stock stays below $35 — long LEAPS decays slowly.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Pinned Premium)

Sell 4/17 $30/$25 put spread

Moderate-Strong edge: Sells extreme IV (87.8%) in a positive GEX regime that dampens moves toward the strike. Defined risk down to the $25 OI wall. Better than naked put due to pin risk.

Credit: $1.50-$1.80

Max loss: $350.00

BE: $28.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-60% of max credit. Roll down/out if $30 is breached. Exit if spot closes above $34.

Neutral-to-bullish traders seeking high premium with defined risk, comfortable with the $30 battleground.

Iron Condor (Range-Bound)

Sell 4/17 $27/$25 put spread & $35/$37 call spread

Moderate edge: Expresses the GEX pinning regime and uses the 2-week EM bounds ($27.28-$35.58) for strike selection. Collects premium from both sides in a high IV name.

Credit: $0.70-$0.90

Max loss: $430.00

BE: $25.70

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Adjust if spot approaches $30 or $35. Exit on a close outside $26/$36.

Range-bound traders who believe the pin holds and want to capitalize on high vol.

LEAPS Diagonal (Patient Recovery)

Buy Jan 2027 $25 call, sell 4/17 $35 calls

Moderate-Strong edge for a longer timeframe: Captures the IV differential while positioning for eventual mean reversion toward $35+ over months. The 295 DTE avoids weekly pin battles and provides time for extreme vol to normalize, improving risk/reward versus a near-term long call.

Debit: $6.50-$7.50

Max loss: $650.00

BE: $31.50

Mgmt: Roll short calls at 21 DTE for a credit. Take profit on diagonal if spot reclaims $35. Exit if $25 support breaks.

Patient bulls expecting eventual recovery, willing to manage short calls monthly.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $33 (3/27 max pain) and stalls → Sell 4/02 $34/$39 call spread for a credit, targeting resistance at $35.

IFIf spot breaks below $30.34 (2d EM low) and holds for 1 hour → Enter bear put spread: Buy 4/10 $30/$25 puts, targeting $25 support.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf short the 4/17 $30/$25 put spread and spot approaches $30.50 → Roll spread down to $27.50/$22.50 for a net credit, moving risk away from gamma flip.

ADJIf long the LEAPS diagonal and spot rallies to $34 → Roll short 4/17 $35 call to a 5/01 $37.50 call for a credit, following resistance higher.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes above $34 (breaching near-term max pain) → Exit all bearish positions (short puts, bear put spreads) — pin gravity is winning.

EXITIf IV on 30-45 DTE options drops below 80% (significant crush) → Take profits on all short premium positions (put spreads, iron condors).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: GEX regime flipped to pinning, creating a gravitational pull toward $30-$33, but conflicting bearish flow and falling max pain limit upside. Invalidation for the pin is a close below $30. The regime favors selling high IV premium with defined risk, using the pin for strike selection. Top plays: 1) Put spread for premium sellers betting on the pin, 2) Iron condor for range-bound traders, 3) LEAPS diagonal for patient bulls expecting eventual mean reversion.

Read the Directional analysis for FIGR for 2026-03-30. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.