FIGR
Figure Technology Solutions, InClose $36.40EOD onlyThis page reflects FIGR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
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You are viewing an older report from March 25, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 7, 2026.
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Bearish with downside momentum to $30, confidence 5.5. Negative GEX (-$642K) supports trending moves lower, with spot 8.2% below max pain creating gravitational pull upward but insufficient to overcome negative gamma momentum. Net premium flow is mixed (-$1.3M) but large put flows at $40 and $36 dominate. VIX at 25.33 yields -0.5 adjustment. Key conflict: max pain gravity upward vs negative gamma trending downward — gamma wins near-term.
Conflicts: Max pain at $34 creates upward pull against negative gamma; P/C ratio 0.75 suggests some call buying interest; unusual call activity at $32-$38.50 strikes indicates speculative upside bets.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: Negative GEX (-$642K) = trending regime. Dealers are net long gamma but negative overall GEX means they amplify moves — sell into rallies, buy into dips less aggressively.
DEX: DEX +3.46M shares = clients net long delta, dealers net short. This represents ~14% of average daily volume (assuming $25M ADV) — significant but not extreme. Dealers will sell into rallies to hedge.
Gamma flip: ~$30 (estimated from $30 put OI concentration of 5,649). Below this level, dealer gamma becomes more negative, shifting from dampened to accelerated moves. Crossing $30 triggers faster downside.
NTM gamma: Near-the-money: $30 put OI dominates (5,649) vs $32 call OI (300 vol). Put gamma concentration below spot creates negative gamma bias — moves lower get amplified.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: IV 107% vs VIX 25 — massively elevated single-stock volatility. FIGR trading at 4x market vol — extreme premium selling opportunity if directional view is confident.
Term structure: Backwardated near-term: 2d 97.5% → 8d 93.0% → 16d 91.6%. Steep drop suggests event risk priced into this week. Kink at 37d (87.8%) then rises to 51d (93.2%).
Skew: Put skew extreme: $24 puts trading at 117.6% IV vs ATM ~93%. Selling far OTM puts (like $24) captures huge premium but carries tail risk. Call skew at $38.50 shows 167.6% IV — lottery ticket pricing.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net -$1.3M bearish, P/C 0.75 suggests some call buying mixed in. Large put flows dominate at $40 and $36 strikes.
Directional prints: 1) $34 puts 4/10: 502 vol (33.5x) at 83.7% IV — could be protective puts bought or speculative shorts sold. Given net bearish flow, more likely protective buying. 2) $32 calls 4/24: 200 vol (28.6x) at 95% IV — speculative upside bets or covered call writing. With P/C 0.75, leans toward call buying. 3) $32 puts 4/02: 309 vol (14.7x) at 88.6% IV — likely protective put buying given overall bearish flow.
Unusual: $38.50 calls 3/27: 102 vol (2.8x) at 167.6% IV — extreme lottery ticket pricing for this week expiry. Either speculative upside bet or someone selling expensive calls.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | Moderate-Weak | Avoid — negative gamma trending regime favors selling, not buying. If must, wait for break above $34 max pain. | Negative gamma amplifies downside moves; dealers sell into rallies |
| Short stock | Moderate-Strong | Entry $31-32, stop above $34. Target $30 gamma flip then $25. Negative GEX supports trend. | Max pain gravity at $34 creates squeeze risk into expiry |
| Covered call | Moderate | If long shares, sell April $34 calls (~$1.50 credit). Captures max pain pin and high IV. | Stock breaks below $30 — lose on shares more than call premium |
| Cash-secured put / put spread | Strong | Sell April $30/$25 put spread (4/17 expiry). Credit ~$2.00. Uses high IV, targets $25 support. | Break below $25 exposes max loss; negative gamma accelerates moves |
| Long calls | Weak | Avoid — negative gamma and high IV make long premium expensive. If bullish, wait for break above $34. | IV crush and negative gamma work against directional move |
| Long puts / bear put spreads | Moderate-Strong | Buy April $32/$27 put spread (4/10 expiry). Debit ~$2.00. Targets move to $30 gamma flip. | Max pain gravity creates headwind; time decay in high IV environment |
| Iron condor | Weak | Avoid — negative GEX regime not suitable for range-bound strategies. Gamma trending breaks ranges. | Negative gamma causes breakouts beyond wings |
| Calendar/diagonal | Moderate | Sell weekly $34 call (3/27), buy April $34 call (4/10). Reverse calendar: sell high IV (167.6%), buy lower IV (92%). | Directional move through $34 loses on both legs |
| PMCC / LEAPS diagonal | Moderate | Buy Jan 2027 $25 call (~$8.00), sell April $32 calls against it. Capture IV differential (89.3% vs 92-95%). | Stock stays below $32 — long LEAPS decays |
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Tactical Summary
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