FIGR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 25, 2026

Outlook

Bearish with downside momentum to $30, confidence 5.5. Negative GEX (-$642K) supports trending moves lower, with spot 8.2% below max pain creating gravitational pull upward but insufficient to overcome negative gamma momentum. Net premium flow is mixed (-$1.3M) but large put flows at $40 and $36 dominate. VIX at 25.33 yields -0.5 adjustment. Key conflict: max pain gravity upward vs negative gamma trending downward — gamma wins near-term.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Supports: Negative GEX (-$642K) supports trending moves; large put premium at $40/$36 strikes; spot well below max pain creating upward gravity; high IV (107%) provides premium selling opportunities.
Conflicts: Max pain at $34 creates upward pull against negative gamma; P/C ratio 0.75 suggests some call buying interest; unusual call activity at $32-$38.50 strikes indicates speculative upside bets.

📉Negative GEX (-$642K) means dealers amplify moves — trending regime favors directional trades

🎯Gamma flip ~$30: below this level, volatility accelerates as dealers switch from buying to selling dips

💰IV 107% vs VIX 25: massive vol premium — selling premium has edge if you can manage gamma risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 107% vs VIX 25 — extremely elevated single-stock volatility

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$642K negative — pro-cyclical, dealers amplify moves

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$1.3M bearish but P/C 0.75 shows some call buying

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

$31.21 vs MP $34 (8.2% below max pain)

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX negative across expirations, max pain ladder shows falling trend ($34 → $32 over 10 expirations), flow regime consistent with bearish bias. This isn't event-specific — structural negative gamma persists for weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$29.50$32.50

Gamma flip at $30 accelerates moves lower; EM bounds $29.01-$33.41

Next 1 week

$28.00$34.00

Break above $34 requires reclaiming max pain; break below $28 targets $25 OI wall

Next 2 weeks

$25.00$36.00

Downside tail has more energy due to negative gamma; $25 put OI (3,267) provides support

Key Levels

Max pain pins: 3/27: $34, 4/02: $35, 4/10: $32 — pin risk releases at each expiry

EM guardrails: 2d: $29.01/$33.41, 8d: $27.58/$34.83

Support: $30: Gamma flip level — break accelerates selling · $25: Major put OI wall (3,267 contracts)

Resistance: $34: Near-term max pain (3/27) · $35: Next-week max pain (4/02)

Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Below $30, dealer gamma turns more negative, amplifying downside moves

Structural: Distant: $40 calls (2,439 OI) and $50 calls (2,966 OI) create long-term resistance; $27.50 calls (3,007 OI) provide near-term ceiling

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: Negative GEX (-$642K) = trending regime. Dealers are net long gamma but negative overall GEX means they amplify moves — sell into rallies, buy into dips less aggressively.

DEX: DEX +3.46M shares = clients net long delta, dealers net short. This represents ~14% of average daily volume (assuming $25M ADV) — significant but not extreme. Dealers will sell into rallies to hedge.

Gamma flip: ~$30 (estimated from $30 put OI concentration of 5,649). Below this level, dealer gamma becomes more negative, shifting from dampened to accelerated moves. Crossing $30 triggers faster downside.

NTM gamma: Near-the-money: $30 put OI dominates (5,649) vs $32 call OI (300 vol). Put gamma concentration below spot creates negative gamma bias — moves lower get amplified.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 107% vs VIX 25 — massively elevated single-stock volatility. FIGR trading at 4x market vol — extreme premium selling opportunity if directional view is confident.

Term structure: Backwardated near-term: 2d 97.5% → 8d 93.0% → 16d 91.6%. Steep drop suggests event risk priced into this week. Kink at 37d (87.8%) then rises to 51d (93.2%).

Skew: Put skew extreme: $24 puts trading at 117.6% IV vs ATM ~93%. Selling far OTM puts (like $24) captures huge premium but carries tail risk. Call skew at $38.50 shows 167.6% IV — lottery ticket pricing.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$1.3M bearish, P/C 0.75 suggests some call buying mixed in. Large put flows dominate at $40 and $36 strikes.

Directional prints: 1) $34 puts 4/10: 502 vol (33.5x) at 83.7% IV — could be protective puts bought or speculative shorts sold. Given net bearish flow, more likely protective buying. 2) $32 calls 4/24: 200 vol (28.6x) at 95% IV — speculative upside bets or covered call writing. With P/C 0.75, leans toward call buying. 3) $32 puts 4/02: 309 vol (14.7x) at 88.6% IV — likely protective put buying given overall bearish flow.

Unusual: $38.50 calls 3/27: 102 vol (2.8x) at 167.6% IV — extreme lottery ticket pricing for this week expiry. Either speculative upside bet or someone selling expensive calls.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $30: Break below accelerates selling as dealer hedging shifts

!Max pain gravity: $34 pin creates upward pull — short positions face squeeze risk into Friday

!IV crush: 107% IV vulnerable to normalization — long premium positions at risk

!Macro correlation: FIGR down while broad market up — decoupling could reverse

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Avoid — negative gamma trending regime favors selling, not buying. If must, wait for break above $34 max pain.	Negative gamma amplifies downside moves; dealers sell into rallies
Short stock	Moderate-Strong	Entry $31-32, stop above $34. Target $30 gamma flip then $25. Negative GEX supports trend.	Max pain gravity at $34 creates squeeze risk into expiry
Covered call	Moderate	If long shares, sell April $34 calls (~$1.50 credit). Captures max pain pin and high IV.	Stock breaks below $30 — lose on shares more than call premium
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell April $30/$25 put spread (4/17 expiry). Credit ~$2.00. Uses high IV, targets $25 support.	Break below $25 exposes max loss; negative gamma accelerates moves
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — negative gamma and high IV make long premium expensive. If bullish, wait for break above $34.	IV crush and negative gamma work against directional move
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Strong	Buy April $32/$27 put spread (4/10 expiry). Debit ~$2.00. Targets move to $30 gamma flip.	Max pain gravity creates headwind; time decay in high IV environment
Iron condor	Weak	Avoid — negative GEX regime not suitable for range-bound strategies. Gamma trending breaks ranges.	Negative gamma causes breakouts beyond wings
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell weekly $34 call (3/27), buy April $34 call (4/10). Reverse calendar: sell high IV (167.6%), buy lower IV (92%).	Directional move through $34 loses on both legs
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $25 call (~$8.00), sell April $32 calls against it. Capture IV differential (89.3% vs 92-95%).	Stock stays below $32 — long LEAPS decays

Top Plays

Put Spread

Sell April $30/$25 put spread (4/17 expiry)

Strong edge: sells extreme IV (93.2%) in negative gamma regime where downside moves are amplified. Spread width captures $25 OI support while defining risk. Better than naked put due to defined risk in trending environment. Best for those bearish but wanting defined risk and high premium capture.

Max loss: $300.00

BE: $28.00

Mgmt: Take 50% profit at $1.00 credit remaining. Roll down if $30 breached. Stop if $34 reclaimed.

Bearish traders wanting defined risk and high premium capture

Bear Put Spread

Buy April $32/$27 put spread (4/10 expiry)

Moderate-Strong edge: directional play aligned with negative gamma trending. Targets $30 gamma flip level with defined risk. Better than long puts alone due to reduced cost in high IV environment. Who: directional bears wanting leveraged downside with capped risk.

Max loss: $230.00

BE: $34.10

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% max profit ($2.50). Stop if $34 reclaimed. Manage at gamma flip ($30).

Directional bears wanting leveraged downside with capped risk

LEAPS Diagonal

Buy Jan 2027 $25 call, sell April $32 calls

Moderate edge: captures IV differential (89.3% LEAPS vs 93.2% April) while positioning for eventual recovery. 296 DTE provides time for multi-week negative gamma to play out while maintaining upside. Better than near-term plays for those with longer horizon — avoids weekly max pain battles. Who: patient bulls expecting eventual mean reversion to $34+

Max loss: $650.00

BE: $31.50

Mgmt: Roll short calls monthly at 21 DTE. Take profit on diagonal if $34 reclaimed. Stop if $25 breached.

Patient bulls expecting eventual mean reversion to $34+

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf FIGR breaks below $30 gamma flip level → Enter bear put spread: buy $30/$25 puts (April expiry)

IFIf FIGR reclaims $34 (above max pain) with volume → Cover short positions / consider call spreads: buy $34/$38 calls

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf short put spread and FIGR approaches $30 → Roll spread down to $27.50/$22.50 for credit

ADJIf long diagonal and IV spikes above 120% → Sell additional near-term calls against LEAPS (30-45 DTE)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf put spread reaches 50% max profit ($1.00 credit remaining) → Close position for profit

EXITIf FIGR breaks above $35 (next max pain level) → Exit all bearish positions — max pain gravity winning

EXITIf VIX drops below 22 while FIGR IV remains >100% → Take profits on short premium positions — vol normalization risk

Tactical Summary

Negative gamma trending regime favors directional bearish plays with defined risk. Primary thesis: downside to $30 gamma flip, then potential acceleration. Invalidation at $34 max pain. Top plays: 1) Put spread (sell $30/$25) for premium sellers, 2) Bear put spread ($32/$27) for directional bears, 3) LEAPS diagonal for patient bulls. Manage around $30 gamma flip — break accelerates moves."

Read the Directional analysis for FIGR for 2026-03-25. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.