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FCX

Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.Close $58.70EOD only

Max Pain

$62.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.64

4.5% from close

Price Gap

+3.30

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.98

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

FCX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a strong pinning force toward $57-$58 (max pain cluster). Confidence: 7.5/10. The regime is dominated by positive GEX pinning and bullish flow, but spot is elevated relative to the pin and long-term max pain trends lower, creating a tug-of-war.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP. No override: high IV and falling long-term MP are priced in.

Supports: GEX +$23.8M (strong pin), Net Premium +$9.9M (bullish), P/C Volume 0.67 (call dominance), Max Pain cluster at $57.
Conflicts: Spot ($58.78) above MP ($57), Long-term MP trend falls to $45-$50, IV extremely high at 62.2%.

📌Strong GEX pin across next 3 expiries at $57

📈Bullish premium flow concentrated at $59-$61

⚠️Long-term max pain drifts to $45-$50

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 62.2% — extremely high, creating strong edge for premium sellers and calendar spreads.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$23.8M — strong pinning force concentrated near spot, suppressing volatility.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net Premium +$9.9M with P/C Volume 0.67 — institutional call buying dominates near-term flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ($58.78) is 3.1% above the $57 max pain cluster — creates a mild gravitational pull lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pin at $57 persists across the next three weekly expirations (3/27, 4/2, 4/10), and GEX sign remains strongly positive. The regime is not just a one-week event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$55.73$61.82

Pin dominates; break above $61.82 (2d EM high) signals bullish breakout.

Next 1 week

$54.16$63.40

Pin holds; upside capped by $65 call OI wall, downside supported by pin.

Next 2 weeks

$52.75$64.80

Pin may weaken post-4/10 expiry; watch for drift toward longer-term MP ($50s).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $57 (2026-03-27); $57 (2026-04-02); $57 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $55.73/$61.82; 1w $54.16/$63.40

Support: $35.00 · $50.00 · $35.00

Resistance: $65.00 · $80.00 · $65.00

Gamma flip: ~$35.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,075

Structural: **Call OI walls at $65 & $80** cap rallies; **massive put floors at $33, $35, $50** provide structural support but are far OTM. The $50 level is key as both a put floor and a long-term max pain magnet.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+23.8M

DEX: +35.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$35 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,075)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX is massive but gamma flip is ~$35 (far below). Dealers are long gamma across the entire trading range, hedging by buying on dips and selling on rallies — reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 62.2% — extremely elevated, likely due to commodity/stock-specific volatility. Premium selling has significant edge.

Term structure: **Steeply inverted**: 2d IV 72.9% >> 10d IV 55.7%. Massive vol drop after 4/2 expiry. Kink at 5/1 (earnings est. 4/23) with IV 55.8%.

Skew: **~17 vol-pt differential between 4/2 and 4/10 expiries** — prime for short-dated calendar spreads (sell 4/2, buy 4/10).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$9.9M bullish; P/C Volume 0.67, P/C OI 0.98 (balanced).

Directional prints: $59C net +$1.86M, $60C net +$1.68M — fresh, near-ATM call buying. $64C 4/17 vol 2,483 vs OI 307 (8.1x) — likely new long call position. Interpretations: 1) Bullish directional bets, or 2) Dealers hedging short gamma. Given net premium and P/C ratio, bought calls are more consistent.

Unusual: $46.50P 4/2 vol 215 vs OI 102 at IV 243.4% — likely a far OTM put sale for premium, reflecting confidence in the $50+ floor.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$35 is irrelevant** — spot would need to drop ~40% to trigger dealer short-gamma acceleration.

!**Post-4/10 expiry pin release** could allow spot to drift toward longer-term max pain ($50s).

!**Extreme IV (62.2%)** carries vol crush risk for long premium positions, especially after 4/2.

!**Earnings estimated 4/23** creates an event risk kink in May IV term structure.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $58.78.	Pin drags price toward $57; high IV makes covered calls more attractive.
Short Stock	Weak	N/A	Contravenes bullish flow and positive GEX pinning; defined-risk puts better.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $61 or $62 weekly call (4/2 or 4/10).	Capped upside if breakout above OI wall.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $55/$50 put spread 4/10 or 4/17 (targets MP & put floor).	Break below $54.16 (1w EM low).
Long Calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $60C 4/17 or 5/1 for directional breakout.	High IV and pinning crush premium; better as part of diagonal.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate	Buy $57/$52 put spread 4/17 (bet on drift to MP).	Bullish flow and pin resist downward move.
Iron Condor	Strong	$55/$52P x $62/$65C 4/10 (within 1w EM, avoids OI walls).	VIX spike, but GEX positive and IV high favor seller.
Calendar / Diagonal	Strong	Sell $59C 4/2 (IV 72.9%), buy $60C 4/10 (IV 55.7%) for ~17 vol-pt credit.	Spot moves sharply away from short strike.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $50C Jan 2027, sell $60C monthly against it.	Capital intensive; long-term MP drift lower.

Top Plays

Short-Dated Calendar Spread

Sell $59 Call 4/2, Buy $60 Call 4/10

Capitalizes on the steep IV inversion (72.9% vs 55.7%) and the pinning regime. You collect high premium from the near-dated short call and finance a longer-dated long call with lower vol.

Credit: $0.15-$0.25

Max loss: Diff between strikes minus credit (~$0.85)

BE: Variable; ideal at/just below $59 at 4/2 expiry.

Mgmt: Close if spot >$61.82 (2d EM high) or if short call IV collapses >50%. Target 50% of max credit.

Traders comfortable with pinning dynamics who want to harvest vol decay with defined risk.

Iron Condor (30-45 DTE)

$55/$52 Put Spread x $62/$65 Call Spread, 4/17 expiry

Expresses the multi-week range-bound thesis with strong edge: GEX positive, IV high, and strikes set between key levels (MP at $57, call wall at $65, put floor at $50). The extra DTE provides a buffer against pin-related noise.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $1.90

BE: $53.20 / $63.80

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. Adjust if spot breaches $54.16 (1w EM low) or tags $64.00.

Defined-risk premium sellers seeking to capitalize on high IV and suppressed volatility from pinning.

Put Spread (Multi-Week)

Sell $55 / Buy $50 Put Spread, 4/17 expiry

A bullish-to-neutral premium play targeting the $57 max pain and the $50 structural put floor. The 45 DTE aligns with the multi-week pinning thesis, allowing time for the pin to work while collecting high IV premium. Better than a weekly put sale due to lower gamma risk and more time for theta decay.

Credit: $1.40-$1.60

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $53.60

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $54.16 (1w EM low).

Traders with a neutral/bullish bias wanting defined-risk income, or those looking to potentially acquire stock at $55.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $61.00 → Sell $62/$65 call spread 4/10 (adds to iron condor or standalone).

IFSpot dips to $57.00 (max pain) and holds for 1 hour → Initiate short-dated calendar: sell $57C 4/2, buy $58C 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $54.16 (1w EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (iron condors, put spreads).

EXITPost-4/10 expiry, spot remains between $57-$58 → Take profit on any remaining short premium trades; reassess regime.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Multi-week pinning between $57-$63 driven by massive positive GEX and bullish flow, but with a long-term gravitational pull toward $50s. The regime favors selling premium (iron condors, put spreads) and calendar spreads to harvest extreme near-dated IV. Top plays: 1) Short-dated calendar for vol arb, 2) 45 DTE iron condor for range-bound theta, 3) 45 DTE put spread for bullish/neutral income. Invalidation: a close below $54.16.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.