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FCX

Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.Close $58.70EOD only
Max Pain
$62.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.64
4.5% from close
Price Gap
+3.30
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.98
Balanced positioning
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
FCX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/23 (inferred from term structure). IV is extremely elevated (73% for 4/02), setting up a high-probability IV crush play. Historical data shows a consistent pattern of beating EPS estimates and positive post-earnings moves. The best strategy is a short premium play, selling the elevated IV with defined risk.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +1 clear IV kink; +0.5 bullish flow; -0.5 high VIX regime
Most important: IV for 4/02 is 73% vs. ~55% for later expirations, confirming a massive earnings kink and crush opportunity.
⚠️Earnings date is inferred from IV kink and EPS estimate date. Confirm via company IR.
📈100% EPS beat rate over last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +0.24. Strong bullish bias.
💥4/02 ATM IV of 72.9% is ~17 vol points above the 4/10 IV. Extreme crush setup.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 62%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$23.8M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$9.9M, P/C 0.67)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 3.1% (spot $58.78 vs MP $57)
Gamma flip: ~$35.00 — Significant put OI wall at $35 creates a strong gamma support level far below spot.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-23 (23 days)inferred (IV kink at 4/02, earnings estimate for 4/23)

Expected moves:

  • 4/02 (2d): ±$3.04 (5.2%)
  • 4/10 (10d): ±$4.62 (7.9%)
  • 4/17 (17d): ±$6.03 (10.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Extreme kink at 4/02 (73% IV) vs. ~55% for 4/10 and beyond. Classic earnings IV ramp.

Crush estimate: ~18-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~55% level.

Skew: Flow is net bullish (P/C 0.67), but massive OI in $35 puts provides a skewed risk profile far OTM.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot compute exact % move from provided data, but consistent EPS beats suggest positive price reaction bias.

Directional bias: All 4 recent quarters had positive EPS surprises, implying upward bias.

Key Levels

1$57 Max Pain
2$35 Gamma Flip / Put OI Wall
3$55 & $65 Call OI Walls
4EM 4/02: $55 - $62

Flow Highlights

Heavy premium flow into $59C ($1.86M net) and $60C ($1.68M net).

Strong bullish positioning into near-term expirations, aligning with historical beat bias.

Unusual activity in 4/17 $64C (2,483 vol vs 307 OI).

Positioning for a post-earnings breakout above the expected move.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush)
Sell $55/$54 PUT x $62/$63 CALL 4/02
Credit: $1.40-$1.80
Max loss: $1.60
Max gain: $1.60
BE: Below $56.47, Above $60.57
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings (targeting peak IV).
Capitalizes on extreme IV (73%) and historical tendency to beat but not necessarily explode. Uses expected move boundaries for strike selection.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 4/02 expected move ($55.73-$61.82) and IV crushes.
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside the short strikes by more than the credit received.
Bull Put Spread (Directional/Bullish Bias)
Sell $55 PUT / Buy $54 PUT 4/02
Credit: $0.40-$0.60
Max loss: $0.60
Max gain: $0.40
BE: $54.60
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $58 before earnings.
Leverages bullish flow (P/C 0.67), historical beat rate, and spot above max pain ($57). Defines risk while selling elevated put IV.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $55 through expiration (at or above max pain).
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $55 and approaches the long put strike.
Long Straddle (Volatility Expansion)
Buy $59 Straddle 4/17
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Move > |Debit| in either direction by 4/17.
Trigger: Enter if IV for 4/17 dips below 50% before earnings.
A higher-risk play for a guidance-driven explosion. Uses a later expiration (4/17) to reduce the impact of the immediate IV crush on the 4/02 expiry and allow time for the move to develop.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds the 10.2% expected move for 4/17 by a wide margin.
Underperforms: Stock pins, IV crushes post-earnings, and realized volatility is low.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 5.2% expected move for 4/02 is significant. A miss or weak guidance could trigger a move to the $55 support/Max Pain level.
!IV Crush: Massive (~73% to ~55%). Long premium strategies will suffer immediate theta and vega decay post-earnings.
!Liquidity: Good OI and active strikes, but be mindful of wide spreads on OTM strikes used in condors.
!Sizing: Size short premium positions conservatively given the high IV; the expected crush provides a cushion, but gap risk remains.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for the 4/02 expiry into the event — if it pushes above 75%, strengthens the short premium thesis.
?Spot price action relative to max pain ($57) and the $59-$60 call flow zone.
?Any news or commodity price moves (copper/gold) that could pre-empt earnings sentiment.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.