thetaOwl

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.Close $58.70EOD only
Max Pain
$62.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.64
4.5% from close
Price Gap
+3.30
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.98
Balanced positioning
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
FCX Theta Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8.5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate to Full
Primary: Sell put spreads and iron condors anchored to high-OI strikes
Invalidation: Close below gamma flip ~$35
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 high IV; +1 strong pinning; +1 bullish flow; -1 falling MP trend

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 62.2% — extremely elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steeply inverted (72.9% in 2 days, ~53% in 45+ days). High front-end vol.

💰IV >60% provides exceptional premium for sellers
📉IV term structure inverted — favors shorter-dated defined-risk sales

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 3.1% (spot $58.78 vs MP $57)

GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$23.8M — mean-reverting)

Gamma flip: ~$35.00Gamma flip ~$35 is far below spot. Market structure strongly supportive of pinning above.

OI concentrations: Major put walls at $35 (31K OI) and $50 (20K OI). Major call walls at $55 (24K OI), $65 (23K OI), and $80 (20K OI).

Verdict: Highly Favorable — Strong positive GEX and massive OI concentrations create powerful magnetic pinning, ideal for credit strategies.

Premium Opportunities

#1
put spread
Sell $50/$45 put spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Sells into massive $50 put OI wall (20K+) with $45 as next major support. High IV provides rich credit. Spot well above, and positive GEX supports pinning.
Credit: $0.85-$1.10
Max loss: $4.00
BE: $49.15
Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $52 (below short strike by >1 expected move). Do not roll.
#2
iron condor
Sell $50/$45P x $65/$70C 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Anchors short strikes to largest OI concentrations ($50P, $65C). Wide $15 range between wings is only ~25% of spot, thanks to high IV. Positive GEX pinning favors range-bound action.
Credit: $1.40-$1.80
Max loss: $3.20
BE: 48.60 / 66.40
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently: roll tested side out in time for credit. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#3
covered call
Own stock at ~$58.78, Sell $65 Call 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For existing shareholders. Sells into the massive $65 call wall (23K OI), a strong resistance. 45 DTE captures high IV while allowing for time to manage. 10.6% upside to strike.
Credit: $2.50-$3.00
BE: $56.28
Mgmt: Roll up and out for credit if spot approaches $64. Close early at 80% profit to re-sell. Be aware of ex-dividend date (none imminent).
#4
put spread
Sell $55/$50 put spread 2026-04-10 (10 DTE)
Shorter-dated, higher-probability play. Sells just above the $55 call wall, using it as support. Benefits from accelerated theta decay in the high front-end IV (55.7%).
Credit: $0.65-$0.85
Max loss: $4.20
BE: $54.35
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit. This is a quick theta harvest; do not hold to expiration. Exit if spot closes below $56.50.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings estimated 2026-04-23 — CLOSE all short premium positions before this announcement. Never hold naked options through earnings.
!Max Pain trend is falling ($57 → $45 long-term) — indicates longer-term put skew and potential gravitational pull lower over many months.
!Gamma flip is ~$35, far below. While supportive of pinning, a break below this level could lead to accelerated, dealer-amplified selling.
!Unusual activity in $64 Calls for April expirations — monitor for institutional bullish pressure toward that level.
!Front-week IV >70% — extreme volatility priced in for next 2 days. Defined-risk spreads are mandatory; avoid naked short options.
!Net premium flow is bullish (+$9.9M), but P/C OI ratio is 0.98 (balanced). This suggests recent bullish bets but overall neutral positioning.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.