Term structure: Steeply inverted (72.9% in 2 days, ~53% in 45+ days). High front-end vol.
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 3.1% (spot $58.78 vs MP $57)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$23.8M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$35.00 — Gamma flip ~$35 is far below spot. Market structure strongly supportive of pinning above.
OI concentrations: Major put walls at $35 (31K OI) and $50 (20K OI). Major call walls at $55 (24K OI), $65 (23K OI), and $80 (20K OI).
#1put spread
Sell $50/$45 put spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Sells into massive $50 put OI wall (20K+) with $45 as next major support. High IV provides rich credit. Spot well above, and positive GEX supports pinning.
Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $52 (below short strike by >1 expected move). Do not roll.
#2iron condor
Sell $50/$45P x $65/$70C 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Anchors short strikes to largest OI concentrations ($50P, $65C). Wide $15 range between wings is only ~25% of spot, thanks to high IV. Positive GEX pinning favors range-bound action.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage legs independently: roll tested side out in time for credit. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#3covered call
Own stock at ~$58.78, Sell $65 Call 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For existing shareholders. Sells into the massive $65 call wall (23K OI), a strong resistance. 45 DTE captures high IV while allowing for time to manage. 10.6% upside to strike.
Mgmt: Roll up and out for credit if spot approaches $64. Close early at 80% profit to re-sell. Be aware of ex-dividend date (none imminent).
#4put spread
Sell $55/$50 put spread 2026-04-10 (10 DTE)
Shorter-dated, higher-probability play. Sells just above the $55 call wall, using it as support. Benefits from accelerated theta decay in the high front-end IV (55.7%).
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit. This is a quick theta harvest; do not hold to expiration. Exit if spot closes below $56.50.
!Earnings estimated 2026-04-23 — CLOSE all short premium positions before this announcement. Never hold naked options through earnings.
!Max Pain trend is falling ($57 → $45 long-term) — indicates longer-term put skew and potential gravitational pull lower over many months.
!Gamma flip is ~$35, far below. While supportive of pinning, a break below this level could lead to accelerated, dealer-amplified selling.
!Unusual activity in $64 Calls for April expirations — monitor for institutional bullish pressure toward that level.
!Front-week IV >70% — extreme volatility priced in for next 2 days. Defined-risk spreads are mandatory; avoid naked short options.
!Net premium flow is bullish (+$9.9M), but P/C OI ratio is 0.98 (balanced). This suggests recent bullish bets but overall neutral positioning.