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CRWV

CoreWeave, Inc.Close $105.89EOD only

Max Pain

$106.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.40

7.0% from close

Price Gap

+0.11

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.90

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRWV options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 26, 2026 close

CRWV Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a near-term upside magnet into the 105–110 cluster; Confidence: 7.0/10 (base). Primary supports: large positive GEX +$61.3M concentrated at 105/110, heavy net premium inflow +$115.1M and bullish call flow at 100/105/110; key conflict: spot $102 is 24.4% above max-pain $82 which limits single-leg bullish conviction.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0: +GEX pinning at 105/110; +net premium and P/C flow skew to calls; -distance from max-pain ($82) reduces tail mean-reversion risk. No imminent macro catalyst found to override.

Supports: GEX concentrations +$8.2M at $110 and +$7.6M at $105; Top premium flow concentrated on calls at $100/$105/$110; Net premium +$115.1M.
Conflicts: Max pain $82 (multi-expiry) sits far below spot; very high ATM IV (avg 93.5%) raises tail risk for short premium.

📌Pinning magnet at $105–$110 (GEX +$7.6M / +$8.2M) — dealers will buy if spot falls toward there, selling into strength above it.

📈Heavy call flow: $100/$105/$110 net call premium >$54M — institutional skew to upside exposure.

⚠️Avg IV 93.5% with 7d ATM IV 89.4% — high vol favors defined-risk short premium but requires tight risk controls.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol: High — ATM IV 89.4% (7d) rising to mid-90s in the 28–42d band; expensive for buyers, supportive for premium sellers.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — concentrated positive GEX at 105 and 110 creates an upside magnet and dealer delta buying as spot approaches those strikes.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow: Bullish — net premium +$115.1M and P/C vol 0.56 show sizable institutional call buying concentrated at 100/105/110.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP — spot $102 well above max pain $82; this disconnect means dealers are hedged for lower outcomes but current flow has pushed spot away from MP.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX concentrations persist across the next two expirations (105/110) and IV term structure remains elevated for 21–42d (ATM IV 91.7%→97.8%), so prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$91.90$112.10

Move above $110 expands upside; intraday break below $100 triggers dealer delta selling toward the 105 pin support.

Next 2 weeks

$87.75$116.25

Sustained push above $112.10 (1w EM) required to target call OI wall at $120–$130; failure to hold $92 breaches downside guard and mobilizes put floor at $70.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $82 (2026-04-10); $82 (2026-04-17); $85 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 1w $91.90/$112.10

Support: $100.00 · $95.00 · $92.00

Resistance: $110.00 · $115.00 · $120.00

Structural: Structural call OI wall from $110 → $150 caps extended rallies; distant put floor at $70 provides deep downside protection for long-dated holders and defines term-structure tail risk.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+61.3M

DEX: +45.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $105 (+$7.6M) and $110 (+$8.2M): if spot falls 2% (~$99.96) dealers will buy delta to hedge puts (support bias); if spot rallies 2% (~$104.04) dealers will sell delta against calls (resistance into 105/110), creating pinning behavior.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 93.5% — rich versus broad equity vols; expensive for buyers, favourable backdrop to sell premium.

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping from 7d ATM 89.4% → 42d ATM 97.8% (kink in 21–42d), implying higher realized risk priced in multi-week expirations.

Skew: Call-heavy flow lifts short-dated call IVs; mispriced opportunity: sell high-IV 35–45d calls/condors around the 115–120 area where call-OI and GEX give structure.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $115.1M bullish; P/C vol 0.56 indicates dominant call buying.

Directional prints: 106.5 put 86 OTM 2026-04-17 — Large print CRWV260417P00086000 vol 17,057 vs OI 590 (28.9x) — could be aggressive buy-protect or short-squeeze hedge; given widespread call flow, more consistent with institutional tail-hedging (buy puts). 88.2 call 120 OTM 2026-04-24 — CRWV260424C00120000 vol 4,521 vs OI 256 (17.7x) — fresh call buying further skewed to upside exposure.

Unusual: 107.6 put 85 OTM 2026-04-17 — CRWV260417P00085000 vol 20,536 vs OI 1,675 (12.3x) — concentrated cheap-protection demand around $83–$86 band (likely tail hedges).

Risks & Catalysts

!Large distance to max pain ($82) — mean-reversion tail risk if broad selling resumes.

!Vol remains elevated (ATM IV ~89–98% across 7–42d) — short premium faces steep IV spikes on downside moves.

!Pinning at $105/$110 can flip quickly if a directional gap occurs past those strikes, amplifying dealer hedging.

!Earnings on 2026-05-13 (EPS est -1.00) is an exogenous event that can reprice IV and break the pin.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy CRWV shares at $100	High IV; expensive to hedge; earnings downside visible.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid aggressive short — against positive GEX and call flow	Dealer support into 105/110; large call flow can fuel short-squeezes.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 $115 call	Call OI wall at 115–120 may cap upside; earnings risk if close to call strike.
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $100 cash-secured put	Put floor at $70 distant but downside acceleration if IV spikes or MP pressure resumes.
Short vertical put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 $105/$100 put spread	Gamma flip below $100 and earnings volatility; defined risk if pin fails.
Long calls	Weak	Buy calls — poor edge vs high IV	Rich IV; time decay destroys buyers absent clear catalyst.
Long put / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-15 $95/$90 bear put spread (tactical hedge)	Expensive protection; IV already elevated on downside moves.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-15 95/90 put x 115/120 call iron condor	Large IV spike or post-earnings gap can blow wings; maintain tight management.
Calendar / diagonal (sell near-leg)	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-24 $105 call, buy 2026-05-15 $105 call (regular calendar) — sell higher-IV near leg	Requires spot stability; roll risk if pin drifts.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2027-01-15 100 LEAP call, sell 2026-05-15 115 call (diagonal)	Expensive carry (IV elevated long-dated); benefits if long-term growth thesis holds.

Top Plays

Defined-risk put spread (multi-week)

Sell 2026-05-15 $105/$100 put spread

Sells into dealer pin at $105 with positive GEX and heavy call flow supporting range; term IV highest in 21–42d so premium is rich.

Credit: $4.50-$6.50

Max loss: $450.00

BE: $100.00

Mgmt: Take 60% of max profit; cut at 100% loss or if spot <$100 for 2 sessions.

Traders wanting defined-risk income and exposure to pin-support.

Iron condor (multi-week)

Sell 2026-05-15 95/90P x 115/120C iron condor

Uses EM guardrails $91.90/$112.10 and concentrated GEX at 105/110 to sell both wings into rich IV; defined risk trade that profits from pinning.

Credit: $3.25-$4.75

Max loss: $475.00

BE: 90.75 / 118.25

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; widen/roll lower put wing if spot <95 and hold above $92; exit if spot <$90 or VIX spikes >20 pts.

Defined-risk premium sellers with margin to hold through earnings uncertainty.

Calendar call (tactical / low-delta income)

Sell 2026-04-24 $105 call, buy 2026-05-15 $105 call (regular calendar)

Sell the near-term higher-IV leg into the 105 pin; benefits from theta and pinning while keeping bullish optionality into May earnings.

Credit: $0.50-$1.10

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close sold leg if spot >110 or if 4d before short expiry IV compresses >10 pts; roll sold leg out or up if needed.

Traders wanting theta with limited directional commitment; tactical overlay to iron condor or stock.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $105 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-15 $105/$100 put spread

IFIf spot drifts to $100 and IV30d >95% → Establish 2026-05-15 iron condor 95/90P x 115/120C (sell wings for credit)

IFIf spot remains between $101–$106 for three sessions → Sell 2026-04-24 $105 call and buy 2026-05-15 $105 call (calendar)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot <$100 for two consecutive sessions → Buy back short put leg of 105/$100 spreads or roll puts down to 100/95 in 30–45d cycle

ADJIf VIX equivalent vol spike increases ATM IV by +10 pts → Tighten short-premium exposure: close 50% of iron condors and put spreads

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot <$92 (break below 1w EM lower $91.90) → Exit all short premium and purchase protective puts (e.g., buy 95/90 put protection)

EXITIf trade reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profits on short put spreads and iron condors per management rules

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: sell defined-risk premium into rich IV around the dealer pin at $105–$110 with 30–45 DTE positioning; invalidation: sustained close below $92 (1w EM lower) which would flip dealer hedging and favor long put exposure. Top plays: sell 2026-05-15 $105/$100 put spread (best for defined-risk income), 95/90P x 115/120C iron condor (best for range sellers), and a 105 calendar (tactical theta) — choose by risk tolerance and existing stock exposure.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.