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CRWV

CoreWeave, Inc.Close $99.81EOD only

Max Pain

$110.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.03

8.0% from close

Price Gap

+10.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.90

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRWV options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

CRWV Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 14, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral with a slight bearish tilt, caught between a near-term pin to $83 and a falling max pain trend. Confidence: 6/10. The regime is contradictory: positive GEX suggests pinning, but bearish flow and a falling MP ladder argue for lower prices.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot at MP; -1 GEX/flow contradict (bearish flow vs. positive GEX).

Supports: GEX +$10.2M (pinning), spot at nearest MP ($83), positive DEX (+36.3M shares).
Conflicts: Net premium -$7.1M (bearish), P/C Vol 1.26 (put dominance), MP trend falling from $83 to $75.

⚖️Contradictory signals: GEX pins, but flow and MP trend are bearish.

📉Max pain trend is decisively lower across 16 expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 84.5% is extremely high — selling premium has significant edge on volatility contraction.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$10.2M indicates pinning near current spot, but the gamma flip at ~$35 is far away, meaning pinning is weak and dealers are not a major force near-term.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium -$7.1M with P/C Vol 1.26 — institutional flow remains bearish, continuing the prior trend.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot $82.24 is at the nearest max pain ($83) — expect tight range pinning through this expiry.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — The falling max pain trend ($83 → $75) and persistent bearish flow across multiple expirations signal a multi-week downward drift. The near-term pin is a tactical overlay on this structural bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$74.54$89.94

GEX pin and spot at MP dominate; break below $74.54 (1w EM low) triggers bearish trend.

Next 2 weeks

$71.24$93.24

Once near-term pin resolves, falling MP trend and bearish flow should pull price lower toward 2w EM low.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $83 (2026-03-27); $76 (2026-04-02); $80 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $74.54/$89.94

Support: $35.00 · $70.00 · $37.50

Resistance: $100.00 · $130.00 · $150.00

Gamma flip: ~$35.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 67,703

Structural: **Call OI wall $100-$150** caps any explosive rally. **Massive put floor at $20-$70**, especially the $35 strike with 67,703 OI, acts as a distant but powerful magnet on any severe sell-off.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+10.2M

DEX: +36.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$35 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 67,703)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$35 is far OTM; minimal dealer hedging influence near spot. Positive GEX is broad-based, not concentrated, offering weak pinning.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 84.5% is extreme — stock-specific vol is massively elevated. Premium selling is highly attractive.

Term structure: Humped, rising from 79.4% (4/10) to 91.9% (5/15), pricing in estimated 5/13 earnings. Steep near-term rise (4/10 to 4/17) offers calendar spread opportunity.

Skew: Front-week (4/10) IV at 79.4% is lower than 4/17 (82.9%) — supports a long calendar (buy 4/10, sell 4/17) to play the IV ramp into earnings.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$7.1M bearish; P/C Vol 1.26, P/C OI 1.00

Directional prints: **$135P 4/17 vol 1,487 vs OI 501 (3.0x) at IV 161%** — likely a deep-OTM put sale (premium collection) or a bearish hedge roll. **Cluster of $65-$69P 4/10 with high volume/OI ratios** — could be new bearish positioning or rolling of existing hedges. Flow is consistent with bearish bias.

Unusual: **$95C 4/10 vol 2,515 vs OI 932 (2.7x)** — standout call buying against the bearish flow, possibly a tactical pin play or short cover.

Risks & Catalysts

!Near-term pin to $83 creates counter-trend rally risk against bearish positioning.

!Extreme IV (84.5%) can crush rapidly on any stability, punishing long premium positions.

!Massive $35 put OI represents a potential 'gamma vortex' if spot approaches.

!Earnings estimated 5/13 create an event-risk kink in May IV.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Aligned against dominant bearish flow and falling MP trend.
Short stock	Moderate	Direct short or via ITM puts (e.g., $85P 4/17).	Near-term pin to $83 creates 1% headwind.
Covered call	Moderate-Weak	Own stock, sell $83C 4/10 (~$1.50 est).	Stock decline outweighs premium; pin rally causes assignment.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $70/$65 put spread 4/17 (target $0.80-$1.00 credit).	Break below $65 support.
Long calls	Weak	Only as a tactical pin play: $83C 4/2.	IV crush and short thesis duration.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $80/$75 put spread 4/17.	Near-term pin eats time value.
Iron condor	Moderate	$75P/$70P x $90C/$95C 4/17.	GEX positive but VIX context N/A; IV >80% supports selling premium, but range may be wide.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $80P 4/10, Sell $80P 4/17 (Long Put Calendar).	Spot moves sharply away from $80.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $70C 1/2027, sell $83C 4/17 against it.	Structural bearish trend pressures long LEAPS.

Top Plays

Short Put Spread

Sell $70/$65 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Capitalizes on extreme IV by selling premium into the major put OI wall at $70. Defined risk below key support, aligned with the multi-week bearish drift but collects premium if the pin holds.

Credit: $0.80-$1.00

Max loss: $4.20

BE: $69.20

Mgmt: Close at 50-60% max profit. Roll down/out if $70 is breached. Exit if spot closes above $83.

Premium sellers comfortable with a bearish bias, wanting defined risk.

Bear Put Spread

Buy $80/$75 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Direct expression of the bearish flow regime and falling MP trend, targeting a move to the 1w EM low ($74.54). The 15 DTE provides time for the near-term pin to resolve.

Debit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $3.00

BE: $78.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 80-90% of max value if $75 is tagged. Exit if spot closes above $83 (above MP).

Traders seeking defined-risk downside exposure aligned with institutional flow.

Long Put Calendar

Buy $80P 4/10, Sell $80P 4/17.

Exploits the steep IV ramp from 4/10 (79.4%) to 4/17 (82.9%). Benefits from IV expansion in the long leg (4/10) as spot drifts toward $80 and the short leg (4/17) decays with time. This is a volatility play on the pin-to-drift transition.

Debit: $0.30-$0.50

Max loss: Variable (cost of spread)

BE: Complex; ideal scenario: spot near $80 at 4/10 expiry with rising near-term IV.

Mgmt: Close after 4/10 expiry for volatility capture. Manage delta if spot runs away from $80.

Advanced traders looking for a non-directional vol play on the multi-week thesis.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $83.50 (above MP) and shows rejection → Enter bear put spread ($80/$75) 4/17.

IFSpot drops to $75.00 (1w EM low) and holds for 2 hours → Sell $70/$65 put spread 4/17 for premium.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $83.50 → Exit all bearish positions — pin overpowering bearish flow.

EXITSpot closes below $69.00 → Take profit on short put spreads at 80% max profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week bearish drift (flow, MP trend) with a weak near-term pin to $83 creating a tug-of-war. Invalidation of the bearish view is a sustained break above $83.50. The regime favors selling premium into high IV and directional bearish plays once the pin breaks. Top plays: 1) Short put spread for premium sell at support; 2) Bear put spread for direct downside; 3) Long put calendar for a volatility play on the transition.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.