thetaOwl

CRWV

CoreWeave, Inc.Close $105.89EOD only
Max Pain
$106.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.40
7.0% from close
Price Gap
+0.11
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
0.90
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRWV options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
CRWV Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with downside magnet to $80. Confidence: 5.5/10. GEX +$7.2M provides pinning support, but net premium -$15.7M and P/C 1.18 show put-heavy flow. Spot above max pain $80 suggests gravity lower.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP
Supports: GEX +$7.2M (pinning), DEX +36.4M shares (dealer long), put OI clusters at $70/$64
Conflicts: Net premium -$15.7M bearish, P/C vol 1.18 put-heavy, spot above MP
📊GEX pinning near $85/$90
⚠️Net premium -$15.7M

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV 88.7% — extremely high, favors selling premium
Gamma Regime
Pinning
GEX +$7.2M concentrated above spot ($85/$90), pinning dominates
Flow Regime
Mixed
Net prem -$15.7M with P/C 1.18 — put-heavy flow
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $80.94 above MP $80 by 1.2%
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder falls from $80 to $78 over 16 expirations, GEX sign stable positive, flow regime consistent across expirations

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks
$68.49$93.39
Max pain $80 dominates; >$85 invalidates

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $80 (2026-04-10); $82 (2026-04-17); $83 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails:
Support: $80.00 · $75.00 · $70.00
Resistance: $85.00 · $90.00 · $105.00
Gamma flip: ~$70.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 43,976 (13.5% below spot)
Structural: Call OI $100-$120 caps upside; put floor $64-$70

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+7.2M

DEX: +36.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$70 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 43,976 (13.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated at $85/$90; gamma flip ~$70

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 88.7% — extremely high, no VIX comparison provided

Term structure: Humped — 4/10 93.2% > 4/17 86.8% > 5/22 95.5%

Skew: 4/10 vs 4/17 ~6.4 vol-pt differential

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$15.7M bearish; P/C vol 1.18

Directional prints: put 75 OTM 2026-05-01 — Vol 1,868 vs OI 147 (12.7x) — likely bought puts call 83 OTM 2026-04-10 — Vol 2,920 vs OI 1,496 (1.9x) — likely sold calls

Unusual: 101.4 put 64 OTM 2026-04-17 — Vol 990 vs OI 315 (3.1x) — high IV put flow

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $70 breaks support
!High IV 88.7% risks vol crush
!Earnings 5/13 adds uncertainty
!Net premium -$15.7M bearish flow

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-Weak
Buy shares at $80.94
Downside to $70
Short stockModerate
Short shares at $80.94
GEX pinning to $85
Covered callModerate-Strong
Buy shares, sell $85 call 4/17
Upside above $85
Cash-secured put / put spreadStrong
Sell $75/$70 put spread 4/17
Break below $70
Long callsWeak
Avoid — high IV, bearish flow
IV crush
Long puts / bear put spreadsModerate
Buy $80/$75 put spread 4/17
GEX pinning
Iron condorModerate-Strong
$75/$70P x $90/$95C 4/17
High IV >28
Calendar/diagonalModerate
Sell 4/10 $85 call (IV 90.7%), buy 4/17 $85 call (IV 85.2%)
Pin at $85
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate-Weak
Avoid — high IV erodes edge
IV crush

Top Plays

#1
Put Spread
Sell $75/$70 put spread 4/17
Defined-risk premium collection below max pain with gamma flip protection.
Credit: $1.50-$2.00
Max loss: $3.50
BE: $73.50
Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit; stop if spot <$70
Defined-risk premium sellers
#2
Covered Call
Buy shares, sell $85 call 4/17
Income play aligned with GEX pinning at $85; downside protected by shares.
Credit: $3.00-$3.25
Max loss: unlimited below entry
BE: $77.94
Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches $85; close at 80% profit
Shareholders seeking income
#3
Iron Condor
$75/$70P x $90/$95C 4/17
Range-bound trade using EM bounds; extra DTE improves risk/reward versus weekly.
Credit: $1.20-$1.50
Max loss: $3.80
BE: 73.8-91.2
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit; adjust if spot breaches $75 or $90
Neutral traders with defined risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot tags $80, holds 30 minSell $75/$70 put spread 4/17
IFSpot rises to $85Sell $90/$95 call spread 4/17
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot >$95 or <$65Exit all iron condors
EXITEarnings 5/13 within 7 daysClose all short-dated positions

Tactical Summary

Neutral-to-bearish with pinning to $80. Invalidation: >$85. Regime favors selling premium. Top plays: put spread for defined risk, covered call for income, iron condor for range. Put spread best for premium sellers, covered call for shareholders, iron condor for neutral traders.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.