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CRWV

CoreWeave, Inc.Close $99.81EOD only

Max Pain

$110.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.03

8.0% from close

Price Gap

+10.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.90

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRWV options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

CRWV Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 14, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Bearish with a magnet to $76-$80 near-term, but facing strong structural headwinds. Confidence: 6/10. Spot is pinned between near-term max pain levels and a massive, distant put floor, creating a volatile tug-of-war.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bearish; -1 spot 6.7% from MP ($83) creates near-term upward pressure.

Supports: GEX -$263K (trending), Net Premium -$16.0M (bearish), P/C Vol 1.70 (put dominance), MP trend falling.
Conflicts: Spot is below nearest MP ($83), creating a short-term upward pinning force against the dominant bearish flow.

⚠️Massive $35 Put OI (67,689) creates a distant but powerful gravity well.

📉Net premium flow is decisively bearish (-$16M), with heaviest put buying at $55-$60.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 92.2% is extremely high — selling premium has significant edge on any volatility contraction.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$263K is negative and trending — dealer hedging amplifies spot moves, favoring directional trades.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium -$16M with P/C Vol 1.70 — clear institutional put buying, establishing a bearish bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $77.47 is below nearest MP ($83) — expect a short-term upward drift toward $80-$83 before the dominant bearish flow reasserts.

Thesis duration: Structural — Massive, deep-OTM put OI ($35, $20) and a falling MP trend across 16 expirations signal a persistent bearish structural overlay. Near-term pinning is a tactical conflict within a longer-term downtrend.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$73.41$81.54

Driven by pin to $83 MP; failure below $73.41 confirms bearish trend.

Next 1 week

$68.91$86.04

Once near-term pin (4/2) resolves, bearish flow and GEX take over.

Next 2 weeks

$66.22$88.72

Downside target $66-$68 (2w EM low). Break below $62 put OI wall accelerates move.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $83 (2026-03-27); $76 (2026-04-02); $80 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $73.41/$81.54; 1w $68.91/$86.04

Support: $35.00 · $70.00 · $62.00

Resistance: $100.00 · $130.00 · $150.00

Gamma flip: ~$35.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 67,689

Structural: **Call OI wall $100-$150** caps any major rally. **Put floor $20-$70** (especially $35, $62, $70) provides distant but heavy support. The $35 strike with 67,689 OI is a major structural anchor.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-263K

DEX: +40.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$35 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 67,689)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$35 is far below spot, indicating minimal pinning near current price. Negative GEX means dealers are short gamma — they must sell into rallies and buy into dips, amplifying volatility.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 92.2% is extreme — stock-specific vol is massively elevated versus any broad market index. Premium selling is highly attractive.

Term structure: Inverted near-term (88.2% 2d > 83.6% 10d), then humped into May. **Kink at 5/15 (92.5%)** likely pricing 5/13 earnings. Steep drop from 2d to 10d offers calendar spread opportunity.

Skew: Near-term IV is richest — sell 4/2 expiry, buy 4/10 or 4/17 for a volatility-differential play.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$16.0M bearish; P/C Vol 1.70, P/C OI 1.01

Directional prints: **$64P 4/10 vol 20,976 vs OI 224 (93.6x)** — massive new put opening, likely bought for protection/downside. **$81C 4/2 vol 3,326 vs OI 1,971 (1.7x)** — call activity against near-term MP pin.

Unusual: **$55P 10/16 vol 2,809 vs OI 103 (27.3x)** — long-dated, deep-OTM put purchase, a structural bearish hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Near-term pin to $83 MP creates a counter-trend rally risk against bearish positioning.

!Extreme IV (92%) can crush rapidly on any stability, punishing long premium positions.

!Massive $35 put OI represents a potential 'gamma vortex' if spot approaches.

!Earnings estimated 5/13 create an event-risk kink in May IV.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Aligned against dominant bearish flow and negative GEX.
Short stock	Moderate-Strong	Direct short or via ITM puts.	Near-term pin to $83 creates 7% headwind.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $83C 4/10 (~$2.00 est).	Stock decline outweighs premium; pin rally to $83 causes assignment.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $70/$65 put spread 4/17 (target $0.80-$1.00 credit).	Break below $62 OI wall.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Only as a pin play: $80C 4/2.	IV crush and short thesis duration.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $75/$70 put spread 4/10.	Near-term pin eats time value.
Iron condor	Weak	N/A — GEX negative, VIX context N/A but IV >90%.	Trending regime breaks range.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $80C 4/2 (IV 96%), buy $80C 4/10 (IV 83.6%) for ~$0.30 debit.	Spot moves sharply away from $80.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $60C 1/2027, sell $80C 4/10 against it.	Structural bearish trend pressures long LEAPS.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy $75/$70 put spread, 4/10 expiry.

Direct expression of the bearish flow regime and negative GEX, targeting a move to the 1w EM low. Uses 10 DTE to navigate near-term pin risk.

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $1.80

BE: $73.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 80-90% of max value if $70 is tagged. Exit if spot closes above $78.50 (above 2d EM high).

Traders seeking defined-risk downside exposure aligned with institutional flow.

Short Put Spread (Premium Sell)

Sell $70/$65 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Capitalizes on extreme IV by selling premium into the major put OI wall at $70. Defined risk below the structural support level. The 17 DTE provides time for the pin to resolve and IV to decay.

Credit: $0.80-$1.00

Max loss: $4.20

BE: $69.20

Mgmt: Close at 50-60% max profit. Roll down/out if $70 is breached. Defend with long puts if $62 breaks.

Premium sellers comfortable with bearish bias, wanting to get paid for taking risk at a key support level.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $80C 4/2, Buy $80C 4/10.

Exploits the steep near-term IV inversion (96% vs 84%). Benefits from IV crush in the short leg after the 4/2 pin resolves, while the long leg maintains exposure to a potential drift toward $80. This is a volatility-trade overlay on the pin thesis.

Credit: $0.25-$0.40

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; ideal scenario: spot near $80 at 4/2 expiry with IV drop.

Mgmt: Close after 4/2 expiry for volatility capture. Manage delta if spot runs away from $80.

Volatility traders looking for a non-directional play on rich front-week IV.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $81.50 (2d EM high) and shows rejection → Enter bear put spread ($75/$70) 4/10.

IFSpot drops to $73.50 (2d EM low) and holds → Sell $70/$65 put spread 4/17 for premium.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $78.50 → Exit bear put spreads — near-term pin overpowering bearish flow.

EXITSpot closes below $69.00 → Take profit on short put spreads at 80% max profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: structural bearish trend (flow, GEX, MP trend) with a near-term upward pin to $80-$83 creating volatility. Invalidation of bearish view is a sustained break above $83. The regime favors directional bearish plays and selling rich near-term premium. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for direct downside; 2) Short put spread for premium sell at support; 3) Reverse calendar to harvest front-week IV.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.