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COST

Costco Wholesale CorporationClose $1074.01EOD only

Max Pain

$1040.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$18.07

1.7% from close

Price Gap

-34.01

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.43

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COST options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

COST Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; -0.5 mixed flow (bullish prem vs bearish P/C); -0.5 spot above MP with falling trend; +0.5 GEX pinning supportive of range

Watch next session: Spot reaction around $985-$990 zone; Flow in the $1000-$1002.5 calls for directional clues

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$47.0M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 1.41 — put-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 1.04 — balanced OI

A significant contradiction: net premium is strongly bullish, driven by massive, deep OTM call purchases, while near-spot volume is put-dominant (P/C 1.41). This suggests a market split between long-term, low-delta bullish bets and near-term defensive/hedging activity. The spot is above max pain, but the MP trend is falling.

Notable Prints

COST 4/17/26 $580 Put

Vol: 1,103

OI: 295

Vol/OI: 3.7x

IV: 132.1%

Notional: ~$639,740

Intent: Tail-risk hedge or speculative put purchase

Dual read: Bought (bearish hedge) or sold (bullish income, but unlikely given IV and strike)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (132%) and deep OTM nature suggest this is a cheap, long-dated hedge against a major downside move, not a near-term directional bet. It's a 'disaster insurance' purchase.

COST 4/2/26 $1002.5 Call

Vol: 269

OI: 106

Vol/OI: 2.5x

IV: 18.7%

Notional: ~$269,000

Intent: Near-term, at-the-money directional bet or delta hedge.

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (covered call/neutral)

Read-through: Low IV suggests this is likely a purchase (buying low vol). With spot at $996.43, this is a bet on a quick move above $1002.5 by Friday. Its significance is as a near-spot, near-dated signal amidst the OTM noise.

COST 4/2/26 $985 Put

Vol: 255

OI: 123

Vol/OI: 2.1x

IV: 23.5%

Notional: ~$251,175

Intent: Near-term protective put or bearish bet.

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish put write)

Read-through: Strike aligns with the max pain level for the weekly expiration ($977.5-$985). This is likely a hedge against a pullback to the max pain zone or a direct bet on that move. Reinforces the defensive tone in near-spot flow.

COST 4/24/26 $550 Put

Vol: 195

OI: 115

Vol/OI: 1.7x

IV: 72.3%

Notional: ~$107,250

Intent: Follow-on tail-risk hedge (similar to the $580P).

Dual read: Bought (hedge) or sold (income)

Read-through: Another deep OTM put with elevated IV. Part of a theme of securing long-dated, far-out downside protection, contributing to the put-dominant volume ratio.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Massive, concentrated buying in deep OTM calls ($460, $540, $600 strikes). This is likely long-term, low-delta bullish positioning or structured trade legs, not near-term directional.

Put additions: Near-spot puts ($985) and deep OTM multi-month hedges ($580P, $550P). The deep puts are meaningful for portfolio hedging.

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially. Positive GEX (+$11.7M) suggests pinning/mean-reverting forces, which aligns with spot hovering near max pain. However, the put-dominant volume flow contradicts pure bullish GEX interpretation, showing underlying hedging demand.

OI clusters: Major OI clusters: Upside: $1000C (1,756 OI), $1065C (1,609), $1030C (1,383). Downside: $820P (1,158 OI - the gamma flip level), $800P (1,088). Creates a wide potential range between $820 and $1065.

Hedging evidence: Clear. The $580P and $550P prints are textbook institutional hedging activity—buying cheap, long-dated puts for portfolio protection. The $985P is a nearer-term hedge.

Max pain context: Spot ($996.43) is 1.9% above aggregate max pain (~$978). Near-term MP is at $977.5-$985. The falling MP trend across expirations ($978 → $930) suggests options positioning is gradually shifting to lower price expectations over time.

Signal vs Noise

~The massive premium flow into deep OTM calls ($460C, $540C, etc.) is a SIGNAL of long-term bullish conviction or structured trade activity, but it is NOISE for near-term price direction. These are low-delta, high-premium plays likely unrelated to the next few weeks' move.

~The $580 Put and $550 Put prints, while unusual, are tail-risk hedges. They signal defensive positioning but not an imminent crash forecast.

~High OI at the $1600 Call is likely noise—remnant of old, lottery-ticket positions far from current price.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Flow is schizophrenic: bullish premium (deep calls) vs bearish volume (puts). Resolve via near-spot activity.

🛡️Institutional hedging is evident via deep OTM put purchases, indicating defensive overlay.

📌GEX pinning + spot near max pain suggests a battle around $985-$1000. Break below $985 is key for bears.

🎯Watch $985 (near-term MP/put strike) and $1002.5 (call strike) for near-term directional resolution.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.