Home Options COPReports

COP

ConocoPhillipsClose $122.36EOD only

Max Pain

$119.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.29

2.7% from close

Price Gap

-3.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.77

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COP options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

COP Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

3.5 / 10

base 3; +0.5 for net premium bearish; +0.5 for GEX pinning; -0.5 for low overall volume

Watch next session: $130 and $135 put OI buildup; Spot reaction to $130 level (major premium net seller)

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$2.7M (mixed, but near-term premium flow is bearish)

P/C volume ratio: 0.90 — balanced with slight put lean

P/C OI ratio: 0.74 — moderate call lean in positioning

Mixed signals with a near-term defensive tilt. While overall net premium is slightly positive, the heaviest premium flow is bearish at near-the-money strikes. The market is positioned for mean reversion lower from current elevated levels.

Notable Prints

COP 4/24/26 $115 Put

Vol: 223

OI: 101

Vol/OI: 2.2x

IV: 39.9%

Notional: ~$2.6M

Intent: Fresh protective put buying or bearish speculation

Dual read: Bought to hedge a long position or sold as part of a spread/collar

Read-through: This is the only flagged unusual print. Opening volume at a $115 strike (13% below spot) suggests a view that a pullback toward the $115-$120 zone is plausible over the next ~3 weeks. Given the size, it's more likely institutional hedging than retail speculation.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal recent call flow near spot. Largest OI clusters are deep OTM ($95, $105, $115 Calls).

Put additions: The $115 Put 4/24 print is notable. Premium flow shows institutions as net sellers of $130 and $135 Calls and net buyers of $130 and $135 Puts.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$23.7M) aligns with 'pinning' regime and suggests dealer hedging acts as a stabilizer, favoring mean reversion.

OI clusters: Major call walls at $95 (10.5K OI) and $115 (8.5K OI). Major put wall at $95 (5.6K OI). Current spot ($132) is well above these clusters, in a zone of lower OI density.

Hedging evidence: The $115 Put purchase is direct hedging evidence. The bearish premium flow at $130/$135 also suggests protective activity or outright bearish bets.

Max pain context: Spot ($132) is 9.1% above the nearest max pain ($121), creating a gravitational pull lower. The max pain trend is falling across expirations, from $121 to as low as $95 by June.

Signal vs Noise

~Large premium flows at deep OTM strikes ($50, $65, $80 Calls) are almost certainly part of multi-leg spreads (e.g., call calendar spreads, diagonal spreads) or covered call writing programs. They represent large notional but are non-directional structure trades.

~The $42.50 and $77.50 Call flows are similarly structural and not indicative of a directional view on the underlying.

~Low volume across many strikes indicates a quiet, non-trending options day overall.

Key Conclusions

📌Market in 'Pinning' Gamma regime; dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility and promoting mean reversion.

⬇️Near-term premium flow is bearish at key levels ($130, $135), with institutions net sellers of calls and buyers of puts there.

🎯Spot is far above max pain and major OI clusters, suggesting a higher probability of a pullback toward $120-$125 than a continued rally.

📊Low overall volume and a single unusual print limit conviction; this is not a high-conviction flow day.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.