COP Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

3.5 / 10

base 3; +0.5 for net premium bearish; +0.5 for GEX pinning; -0.5 for low overall volume

Watch next session: $130 and $135 put OI buildup; Spot reaction to $130 level (major premium net seller)

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$2.7M (mixed, but near-term premium flow is bearish)

P/C volume ratio: 0.90 — balanced with slight put lean

P/C OI ratio: 0.74 — moderate call lean in positioning

Mixed signals with a near-term defensive tilt. While overall net premium is slightly positive, the heaviest premium flow is bearish at near-the-money strikes. The market is positioned for mean reversion lower from current elevated levels.

Notable Prints

COP 4/24/26 $115 Put

Vol: 223

OI: 101

Vol/OI: 2.2x

IV: 39.9%

Notional: ~$2.6M

Intent: Fresh protective put buying or bearish speculation

Dual read: Bought to hedge a long position or sold as part of a spread/collar

Read-through: This is the only flagged unusual print. Opening volume at a $115 strike (13% below spot) suggests a view that a pullback toward the $115-$120 zone is plausible over the next ~3 weeks. Given the size, it's more likely institutional hedging than retail speculation.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal recent call flow near spot. Largest OI clusters are deep OTM ($95, $105, $115 Calls).

Put additions: The $115 Put 4/24 print is notable. Premium flow shows institutions as net sellers of $130 and $135 Calls and net buyers of $130 and $135 Puts.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$23.7M) aligns with 'pinning' regime and suggests dealer hedging acts as a stabilizer, favoring mean reversion.

OI clusters: Major call walls at $95 (10.5K OI) and $115 (8.5K OI). Major put wall at $95 (5.6K OI). Current spot ($132) is well above these clusters, in a zone of lower OI density.

Hedging evidence: The $115 Put purchase is direct hedging evidence. The bearish premium flow at $130/$135 also suggests protective activity or outright bearish bets.

Max pain context: Spot ($132) is 9.1% above the nearest max pain ($121), creating a gravitational pull lower. The max pain trend is falling across expirations, from $121 to as low as $95 by June.

Signal vs Noise

~Large premium flows at deep OTM strikes ($50, $65, $80 Calls) are almost certainly part of multi-leg spreads (e.g., call calendar spreads, diagonal spreads) or covered call writing programs. They represent large notional but are non-directional structure trades.

~The $42.50 and $77.50 Call flows are similarly structural and not indicative of a directional view on the underlying.

~Low volume across many strikes indicates a quiet, non-trending options day overall.

Key Conclusions

📌Market in 'Pinning' Gamma regime; dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility and promoting mean reversion.

⬇️Near-term premium flow is bearish at key levels ($130, $135), with institutions net sellers of calls and buyers of puts there.

🎯Spot is far above max pain and major OI clusters, suggesting a higher probability of a pullback toward $120-$125 than a continued rally.

📊Low overall volume and a single unusual print limit conviction; this is not a high-conviction flow day.

Read the Flow analysis for COP for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.