Home Options COPReports

COP

ConocoPhillipsClose $122.36EOD only

Max Pain

$119.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.29

2.7% from close

Price Gap

-3.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.77

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COP options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

COP Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a gravitational pull toward lower max pain levels ($121-$125). Confidence: 7/10. Strong positive GEX (+$23.7M) creates a powerful pinning effect, but spot is 9% above the nearest max pain and the long-term MP trend is decisively lower, suggesting a slow grind down is the path of least resistance.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pinning); +1 GEX positive; -1 spot 9.1% from MP. No override: mechanical score captures the high-conviction pinning vs. directional conflict.

Supports: GEX +$23.7M (strong pin), DEX +16M shares (dealer long gamma), P/C OI 0.74 (put-heavy positioning).
Conflicts: Spot ($132) well above near-term max pain ($121-$127), falling MP trend, net premium only +$2.7M despite call-heavy volume.

📌Extreme GEX pinning conflicts with bearish MP gravity.

📉Max pain ladder trends lower from $121 to $110 — structural bearish.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 41.6% is elevated (Normal regime). Premium selling is attractive, but beware of pin-induced chop.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$23.7M — strong pinning regime. Dealers are long gamma and will hedge to suppress volatility, making large moves difficult.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — P/C volume 0.90 shows balanced day-trading, but P/C OI 0.74 reveals structural put positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot is Above max pain — creates a magnetic pull lower toward the $121-$125 pin cluster over time.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning is extreme and MP trend is consistently lower across 16 expirations, suggesting a multi-week drift lower is the base case, not a one-week event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$126.51$137.49

GEX pin dominates; break above $137.49 or below $126.51 needed for momentum.

Next 1 week

$124.94$139.06

Max pain at $127 then $125 creates downward drift; $124.94 is key weekly support.

Next 2 weeks

$123.33$140.68

Alignment of lower MP ($125, $105, $120) and put OI floors suggests gradual descent.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $121 (2026-03-27); $127 (2026-04-02); $125 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $126.51/$137.49; 1w $124.94/$139.06

Support: $95.00 · $95.00

Resistance:

Gamma flip: ~$95.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,587

Structural: **Massive $95 put OI wall (5,587+ contracts)** acts as a distant but formidable floor. No major call OI resistance above spot, allowing for upside squeezes if pin breaks.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+23.7M

DEX: +16.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$95 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,587)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$95 is far below, confirming dealers are long gamma across the entire trading range. A move ±2% from $132 will see muted dealer hedging (selling on rallies, buying on dips), reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 41.6% is high in absolute terms, favoring premium sellers.

Term structure: **Steeply inverted**: 2-day IV 53.2% plummets to 39.3% by 4/10. This is a pinning kink — near-term vol is rich due to expiry pressure.

Skew: The ~14 vol-point drop from 4/2 to 4/10 creates a strong **calendar spread** opportunity (sell front, buy back).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$2.7M weakly bullish, but misleading. Large premium at $130 and $135 is in puts ($-568k, $-456k net), indicating either put selling (bullish) or put buying (bearish hedge). OI skew to puts suggests the latter is more likely.

Directional prints: 1) $120C: $485k net premium, vol 35 vs OI 6,412 — could be call selling against existing positions. 2) $115P 4/24: 223 vol vs 101 OI (2.2x) at 39.9% IV — fresh opening, likely a longer-dated hedge.

Unusual: **Deep ITM call flow** at $50, $65, $80 ($400k+ net premium each). This is likely **delta hedging or financing activity**, not directional speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin break**: A sustained move outside $126.51-$137.49 could accelerate as dealer hedging flips.

!**Vol crush post-4/2**: The 53.2% IV in the front week will collapse after Thursday, punishing long premium holders.

!**Macro/Oil volatility**: COP is energy-sensitive; exogenous oil moves can override technicals.

!**Earnings date unspecified**: 4/30 earnings est creates event risk; vol may start pricing it in soon.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell $127/$125 put spread & sell $137/$140 call spread, exp 4/10. Maps to 1w EM bounds and MP pins.	Pin breaks outside range; defined risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $125 put (4/10) or $125/$120 put spread (4/17). Targets MP and support.	Accelerated drop below $120.
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $130 put / sell $125 put, exp 4/17. Bets on drift to MP.	Pinning chops price; time decay.
Calendar/diagonal	Strong	Reverse calendar: Sell $130 call 4/2 (53.2% IV), buy $130 call 4/10 (39.3% IV). Benefits from front-week vol crush.	Spot moves far from $130, losing theta differential.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $137 call (4/10) at weekly resistance.	Capped upside if breakout.
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Entry near $127 (MP/EM support) with stop below $125.	Bearish MP gravity and trend.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Entry on failure below $127, target $125.	Strong GEX pin causes violent squeezes.
Long calls	Weak	Not advised. IV high, pinning suppresses momentum.	Vol crush and theta decay.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $95 LEAPS call (low delta), sell $130-$135 calls monthly against it. Leverages high IV in shorts vs. low IV in long.	Capital intensive; stock drift lower hurts.

Top Plays

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $130 Call 4/2, Buy $130 Call 4/10

Capitalizes on the steep 14 vol-point inversion due to pinning. You're selling expensive front-week vol and buying cheaper back-month vol, profiting from the inevitable crush after 4/2 expiry.

Credit: $0.45-$0.60

Max loss: Unlimited (defined by strike width, but large moves hurt)

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush.

Mgmt: Close for 50% profit after 4/2 expiry vol crush. Exit if spot moves >$135 or <$125 before expiry.

Traders comfortable with pinning dynamics seeking a non-directional, high-probability vol trade.

Put Spread (4/17)

Sell $125 Put / Buy $120 Put, exp 4/17

Expresses the bearish drift thesis toward max pain with defined risk. The 30-45 DTE aligns with the multi-week duration, allowing time for the MP gravity to work while collecting premium from elevated IV.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $123.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Roll down if spot breaches $124. Exit if spot reclaims $130.

Traders with a bearish bias wanting defined risk and positive theta.

Iron Condor (4/10)

Sell $127/$125 Put Spread & Sell $137/$140 Call Spread

The premier expression of the pinning regime. Places wings at key technical levels (MP support, EM resistance) where GEX is strongest. High IV provides attractive credit.

Credit: $0.85-$1.05

Max loss: $1.15

BE: 125.85 to 136.15

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Adjust if spot tests either short strike. Invalidate on close outside $126/$138.

Neutral traders seeking high-probability, defined-risk income in a choppy market.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rises to test $135 (weekly EM resistance) → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $135 Call 4/2, Buy $135 Call 4/10.

IFSpot drops to $127 (4/2 max pain) and holds → Sell $127/$122 put spread, exp 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $138 (above 1w EM) → Exit all short call positions (condor wings, calendars).

EXITSpot closes below $124.94 (1w EM support) → Exit put spreads and consider bearish adjustments.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Strong GEX pinning creates chop, but lower max pain levels exert gravitational pull for a multi-week drift down. Favor short premium strategies (iron condors, put spreads) that benefit from high IV and pinning, or exploit the inverted term structure with calendars. Top plays: 1) Reverse calendar for vol arb, 2) 4/17 put spread for directional drift, 3) Iron condor for pure pinning. Invalidation: a sustained close outside $126-$138 breaks the pin.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.