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COP

ConocoPhillipsClose $122.36EOD only

Max Pain

$119.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.29

2.7% from close

Price Gap

-3.36

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.77

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COP options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

COP Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings inferred for late April/early May. IV for the 4/02 expiration is sharply elevated at 53.2%, presenting a clear IV crush opportunity. The stock is in a pinning regime and well above max pain, suggesting a mean-reverting bias. The best strategy is to sell the elevated short-dated premium via a short strangle, with defined-risk condors as an alternative.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 elevated IV (53% vs 42% avg); +0 gamma pinning; -0 no explicit date

Most important: Sharp IV term structure kink at 4/02 (53.2%) vs 4/10 (39.3%) confirms earnings are imminent, likely on 4/02 AMC or 4/03 BMO.

⚠️Earnings date is inferred from IV kink at 4/02. Official date is listed as 4/30, but options market is pricing a major event ~4/02.

📊Spot $132 is 9.1% above nearest max pain ($121). In a pinning regime, this suggests a gravitational pull lower.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal (IV 42%)

Gamma Regime

Pinning (GEX +$23.7M — mean-reverting)

Flow Regime

Mixed (net prem +$2.7M, P/C 0.90)

Spot vs MP

Above max pain by 9.1% (spot $132.00 vs MP $121)

Gamma flip: ~$95.00 — Gamma flip ~$95, far below spot. Dealers are long gamma near spot, suppressing volatility.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30inferred

Expected moves:

4/02 (2d): ±$5.49 (4.2%)
4/10 (10d): ±$7.06 (5.3%)
4/17 (17d): ±$8.68 (6.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Extreme kink at 4/02 (53.2% IV) vs 4/10 (39.3%). Sharp drop post-4/02 confirms earnings event priced into that expiration.

Crush estimate: ~14 vol pts, back to ~39% (post-earnings IV)

Skew: Net premium flow negative at near-the-money ($130, $135), indicating more put buying pressure relative to calls.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price data to calculate.

Directional bias: Mixed EPS surprises; last quarter missed.

Key Levels

1$121 max pain (3/27)

2$127 max pain (4/02)

3$95 gamma flip & major OI strike

4EM: $126 - $138 (approx bounds)

Flow Highlights

Large net put premium at $130 (-$568k) and $135 (-$456k)

Hedging or bearish positioning for earnings near current price.

Unusual Put activity: 4/24 $115 Put (Vol 223 vs OI 101, 2.2x)

Possible longer-dated downside protection or earnings hedge.

Strategies

Short Strangle (IV Crush)

Sell $125 Put / Sell $140 Call 4/02

Credit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: Unlimited

Max gain: $2.25

BE: Below $122.75 or Above $142.25

Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings (4/01)

Capitalizes on extreme IV kink. Strikes are outside the 4.2% EM ($126.51-$137.49) for a buffer. High gamma pinning supports range-bound price action.

Outperforms: Stock stays within $125-$140, IV crushes from 53% to ~39%

Underperforms: Gap exceeds strangle wings by >$2.50

Iron Condor (Defined Risk)

Sell $127/$122 Put Spread x Sell $137/$142 Call Spread 4/02

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

Max gain: $1.25

BE: Below $125.75 or Above $138.25

Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings

Defined-risk version of the strangle. Short strikes align with the edges of the expected move. Lower credit but capped risk.

Outperforms: Stock stays between $127 and $137

Underperforms: Move exceeds the short strikes ($127 or $137)

Long Put Diagonal (Bearish Hedge)

Buy 4/24 $115 Put / Sell 4/02 $125 Put

Max loss: Cost of diagonal

Max gain: If stock collapses below $115 by 4/24

BE: Complex; depends on IV crush and theta decay.

Trigger: Enter on earnings day for a potential gap down.

Leverages unusual activity in 4/24 $115 Puts. Short 4/02 put finances longer-dated put, betting on a sustained downward move. High-risk, speculative hedge.

Outperforms: Stock gaps down significantly post-earnings and continues lower.

Underperforms: Stock rallies or stays flat; short-dated put decays rapidly.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 4.2% expected move, but energy stocks can be volatile on earnings. Last quarter's EPS miss is a caution.

!IV Crush: Significant (~14 vol points). Long premium strategies need a very large move to overcome crush.

!Liquidity: Good OI and active strikes, but not at mega-cap levels. Sizing should be moderate.

!Pinning/Gamma: Strong pinning regime (GEX +$23.7M) suggests mean reversion, but a fundamental surprise can break this technical force.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 4/02 expiration into the event.

?Spot price relative to $127 (4/02 max pain) and $121 (3/27 max pain).

?Any unusual flow in the 4/10 or 4/17 expirations for clues on post-earnings drift.

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.