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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $201.80EOD only
Max Pain
$195.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.60
5.8% from close
Price Gap
-6.80
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
COIN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish flow with heavy call buying and gamma pinning near $195. Spot at $211, above MP. High confidence setup favors upside into OPEX.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Massive call buying on May22 222.5C (V/OI 39x) and continued bullish positioning. Put floor at $170, call wall at $250+.
🔼Net premium +$132M with heavy call skew indicates strong bullish conviction.
📉Historical beat rate only 40%; earnings not a catalyst for 77 days.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,400 (19.8% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (77 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (1d): ±$9.03 (4.3%)
  • 2026-05-22 (8d): ±$19.62 (9.3%)
  • 2026-05-29 (15d): ±$24.90 (11.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated: 1d IV ~76%, 8d ~78%, 15d ~80%. Skew steep with upside calls expensive.

Crush estimate: Post-OPEX, IV expected to contract ~10-15 points as event risk removed.

Skew: Positive skew evident; high implied vol in OTM calls (e.g., 247.5C IV 114%).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Earnings moves volatile; avg abs move ~8-10% vs expected 5-7%.

Directional bias: No clear bias; 2/5 beats but large selloffs post-miss.

Key Levels

1$170.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $202.98/$221.03; 1w $192.38/$231.63
3Max pain pins: $195 (2026-05-15); $198 (2026-05-22); $190 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

May22 222.5C saw 14,624 vol vs 371 OI (39x), aggressive bullish flow.

Large directional bet expecting rally above $222.5 by May22.

May15 217.5P and 215P saw elevated put volume at near-term strikes.

Hedging or put downside protection near OPEX.

Strategies

Bullish Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-22 $220.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $220.00 call
Debit: $2.41-$2.94
Max loss: $2.94
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor spot near $200 for invalidation; roll if needed.
Aligns with bullish flow and term structure; sell near-term IV, buy back-month IV.
Outperforms: Expresses bullish directional view with volatility arbitrage.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Neutral Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-22 $200.00/$190.00 put wing and $230.00/$235.00 call wing
Credit: $2.92-$3.57
Max loss: $6.43
Max gain: $3.57
BE: 196.43 / 233.57
Trigger: Close if spot nears wings.
Capitalizes on IV crush with defined risk, but neutral bias may conflict with bullish sentiment.
Outperforms: Neutral strategy to capture premium from IV contraction.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot 8.7% above MP may attract pinning below current levels if selling pressure emerges.
!Heavy call OI at $250+ could limit upside if spot fails to break resistance.

What to Watch

?Weekly OPEX pin action near $195-$198 max pain.
?Continued call flow on May22 and May29 for expansion.
?Crypto market correlation (BTC) given COIN's sensitivity.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.