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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $193.56EOD only
Max Pain
$192.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.59
2.9% from close
Price Gap
-1.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
COIN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 14, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 2026-05-07 (31 days out). IV elevated at 81.7%, with front-week (4/10) IV 77.7% vs 5/01 72.0% creating a 5.7 vol point premium—best strategy is a reverse calendar spread to exploit this term structure anomaly, with key risk being pinning near $175.

Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict
Most important: Front-week IV 77.7% is 5.7 vol points higher than 5/01 IV 72.0%, offering a clear volatility surface trade via reverse calendar spread.
📅Earnings confirmed 2026-05-07, 31 days out—watch for IV ramp-up.
⚠️No sharp IV kink at earnings date—crush play less clear.
🔄Front-week IV 77.7% vs 5/01 72.0% offers 5.7 vol point premium for reverse calendar.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 81.7%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$15.6M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$64.2M, P/C 0.47)
Spot vs MP
Above (spot $174.79 vs max pain $170-$180)
Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Below $170, dealers amplify moves due to negative gamma from put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (31 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (18d): ±$22.07 (12.6%)
  • 5/01 (25d): ±$26.27 (15.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week spike: 4/10 77.7% → 4/24 71.3% → 5/01 72.0% → 5/08 78.3% (4/10 IV 5.7 vol pts higher than 5/01)

Crush estimate: ~5-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~70-75% range

Skew: P/C OI ratio 0.72 shows more call OI, but P/C volume 0.47 indicates put buying recently.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs EM

Directional bias: Mixed: last quarter missed badly (-$2.49 vs $0.94), prior beat (+$5.14 vs $1.49)

Key Levels

1$170.00
2$165.00
3$160.00
4$185.00
5$190.00
6$200.00

Flow Highlights

Massive $170C 4/17 buying: 12,218 vol vs 14,206 OI, net premium +$45.8M

Aggressive upside bet for earnings, creating pin magnet at $170

Large OTM put flow at $380-$720: net premium -$41.1M at $380P alone

Tail hedge or institutional protection far OTM, not near-term relevant

Strategies

Reverse calendar spread
Sell $175 straddle 4/10, buy $175 straddle 5/01
Credit: $1.50-$2.50
Max loss: Limited to debit paid if IV differential widens
Max gain: Credit received + vega/gamma gains
BE: Stock moves away from $175 pre-4/10, IV term structure flattens
Trigger: Enter immediately to capture 5.7 vol point premium
Exploits 5.7 vol point premium between 4/10 IV 77.7% and 5/01 IV 72.0%. Short high-gamma front-week, long higher-vega longer-dated for earnings. Gamma scalping opportunity as pinning likely.
Outperforms: Front-week IV crushes faster than 5/01 IV, stock pins near $175
Underperforms: Stock gaps far from $175 before 4/10, IV term structure steepens
Short strangle
Sell $150P x $200C 5/01
Credit: $4.50-$5.50
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.00
BE: 145.0/205.0
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV >75%
Selling elevated IV (72.0% for 5/01) with wide wings beyond EM guardrails. Historical mixed moves support range-bound outcome.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $150-$200 (EM bounds $148.51-$201.06), IV crushes
Underperforms: Gap exceeds breakevens by >10%
Long straddle
Buy $175 straddle 5/01
Max loss: $26.27
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 148.73/201.27
Trigger: Enter if IV dips below 70% pre-earnings
High volatility regime and historical big beats/misses (e.g., +$5.14, -$2.49) justify directional surprise potential.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM 15.0% by >30% (i.e., >±19.5%)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $175 and IV crushes post-earnings

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±15.0% ($148.51-$201.06) but historical surprises large—could exceed.
!IV crush may be limited as term structure flat; 5/08 IV 78.3% vs 5/01 72.0% suggests post-earnings vol may stay elevated.
!Liquidity: 937K OI, 107K volume—adequate but not hyper-liquid; watch bid-ask spreads.
!Sizing: Keep positions small due to high volatility and conflicting flow signals.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May expirations
?Unusual $170C 4/17 activity for pin clues
?Any guidance pre-announcement
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.