Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 2026-05-07 (31 days out). IV elevated at 81.7%, with front-week (4/10) IV 77.7% vs 5/01 72.0% creating a 5.7 vol point premium—best strategy is a reverse calendar spread to exploit this term structure anomaly, with key risk being pinning near $175.
base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict
Most important: Front-week IV 77.7% is 5.7 vol points higher than 5/01 IV 72.0%, offering a clear volatility surface trade via reverse calendar spread.
📅Earnings confirmed 2026-05-07, 31 days out—watch for IV ramp-up.
⚠️No sharp IV kink at earnings date—crush play less clear.
🔄Front-week IV 77.7% vs 5/01 72.0% offers 5.7 vol point premium for reverse calendar.
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
High (IV 81.7%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$15.6M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$64.2M, P/C 0.47)
Spot vs MP
Above (spot $174.79 vs max pain $170-$180)
Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Below $170, dealers amplify moves due to negative gamma from put OI concentration.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (31 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 4/24 (18d): ±$22.07 (12.6%)
- 5/01 (25d): ±$26.27 (15.0%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Front-week spike: 4/10 77.7% → 4/24 71.3% → 5/01 72.0% → 5/08 78.3% (4/10 IV 5.7 vol pts higher than 5/01)
Crush estimate: ~5-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~70-75% range
Skew: P/C OI ratio 0.72 shows more call OI, but P/C volume 0.47 indicates put buying recently.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs EM
Directional bias: Mixed: last quarter missed badly (-$2.49 vs $0.94), prior beat (+$5.14 vs $1.49)
Key Levels
1$170.00
2$165.00
3$160.00
4$185.00
5$190.00
6$200.00
Flow Highlights
Massive $170C 4/17 buying: 12,218 vol vs 14,206 OI, net premium +$45.8M
Aggressive upside bet for earnings, creating pin magnet at $170
Large OTM put flow at $380-$720: net premium -$41.1M at $380P alone
Tail hedge or institutional protection far OTM, not near-term relevant
Strategies
Reverse calendar spread
Sell $175 straddle 4/10, buy $175 straddle 5/01
Trigger: Enter immediately to capture 5.7 vol point premium
Exploits 5.7 vol point premium between 4/10 IV 77.7% and 5/01 IV 72.0%. Short high-gamma front-week, long higher-vega longer-dated for earnings. Gamma scalping opportunity as pinning likely.
Outperforms: Front-week IV crushes faster than 5/01 IV, stock pins near $175
Underperforms: Stock gaps far from $175 before 4/10, IV term structure steepens
Short strangle
Sell $150P x $200C 5/01
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV >75%
Selling elevated IV (72.0% for 5/01) with wide wings beyond EM guardrails. Historical mixed moves support range-bound outcome.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $150-$200 (EM bounds $148.51-$201.06), IV crushes
Underperforms: Gap exceeds breakevens by >10%
Long straddle
Buy $175 straddle 5/01
Trigger: Enter if IV dips below 70% pre-earnings
High volatility regime and historical big beats/misses (e.g., +$5.14, -$2.49) justify directional surprise potential.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM 15.0% by >30% (i.e., >±19.5%)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $175 and IV crushes post-earnings
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: EM ±15.0% ($148.51-$201.06) but historical surprises large—could exceed.
!IV crush may be limited as term structure flat; 5/08 IV 78.3% vs 5/01 72.0% suggests post-earnings vol may stay elevated.
!Liquidity: 937K OI, 107K volume—adequate but not hyper-liquid; watch bid-ask spreads.
!Sizing: Keep positions small due to high volatility and conflicting flow signals.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into May expirations
?Unusual $170C 4/17 activity for pin clues
?Any guidance pre-announcement