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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $191.29EOD only
Max Pain
$192.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.47
4.4% from close
Price Gap
+1.21
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
COIN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 14, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings confirmed for 5/7, with a massive IV kink at the 4/10 expiration (66.8% vs 68.2% for 4/17) indicating the event is priced for the week of 5/4. The expected move is ±7.9% ($13.60). Extreme IV (82%) and strong gamma pinning near $170 create a high-probability environment for selling premium, with a slight bullish bias from recent flow.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 for explicit earnings date and elevated IV; +0.5 for strong pinning and flow signals; -0 for mixed historical moves
Most important: IV term structure confirms earnings priced for week of 5/4, with a sharp kink at 4/10. Spot is pinned at the gamma flip ($170) and below max pain, but heavy call buying at $177.50 suggests a potential squeeze higher.
📅Earnings explicitly scheduled for 5/7. IV kink at 4/10 confirms the event is priced for that week.
📈Notable bullish flow: $4.07M net premium into $177.50C 4/10, against the broader bearish institutional put flow.
⚖️Spot ($171.46) is pinned between gamma flip ($170) and bullish call flow level ($177.50). High probability of pinning in this range into the event.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 82%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$5.0M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-143.1M, P/C 0.58)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 7.3% (spot $171.46 vs MP $185)
Gamma flip: ~$170.00 — Dealer long gamma near $170 (high put OI). Below $170, hedging could accelerate selling.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/10 (8d): ±$13.60 (7.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/10 (66.8% vs 68.2% for 4/17). IV peaks in May expirations (~79%).

Crush estimate: ~20-25 vol pts post-event, back to ~45-50% range

Skew: Puts slightly richer near-term (unusual put volume at $130, $160), but strong call buying at $177.50.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Volatile with no clear pattern. Last quarter missed badly (-$2.49 vs $0.94 est).

Directional bias: Mixed: 2 up, 2 down post-earnings.

Key Levels

1$170 (Gamma Flip / Max Pain 4/02-10)
2$185 (Current Max Pain, Call OI Wall)
3$177.50 (Heavy Call Flow)
4EM 4/10: $157.50 - $185.00

Flow Highlights

Massive net premium outflow (-$143.1M), dominated by OTM put buying at strikes $250-$720.

Institutional hedging against extreme downside. This is a long volatility footprint but is a known bearish signal.

Heavy call buying at $177.50 4/10 (Vol 9,647 vs OI 2,668, net prem +$4.07M).

Significant bullish flow targeting a move above the $185 max pain level into earnings.

Unusual put volume at $130, $160, $167.50 4/10 (4-7x OI).

Retail/institutional buying of downside protection, defining key support levels.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush Play)
Sell $160/$155P x $185/$190C 4/10
Credit: $2.00-$2.60
Max loss: $3.00
Max gain: $2.40
BE: 157.60 / 187.40
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings (target 5/4-5/6)
Capitalizes on extreme IV and pinning near $170. Wings set just outside expected move for high probability. The $185 short call aligns with max pain and a major OI wall.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $160-$185, IV crushes >20 pts.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds 4/10 EM ($13.60) by >50%.
Bull Put Spread (Pinning Bet)
Sell $165P / Buy $160P 4/10
Credit: $1.40-$1.80
Max loss: $3.60
Max gain: $1.60
BE: $163.40
Trigger: Enter if spot holds above $170, targeting gamma pin.
Targets the high put OI at $170 and max pain at $170 for 4/10. Lower capital requirement than condor, bullish-to-neutral bias supported by recent call flow.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $165, IV crushes.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $165 decisively.
Call Calendar Spread (Play Term Structure & Bullish Flow)
Buy $177.50C 4/10 / Sell $177.50C 4/17
Max loss: Cost of spread
Max gain: IV crush in 4/17 leg
BE: Complex; best if stock near $177.50 at 4/10 expiry.
Trigger: Enter 7-10 days before 4/10 expiry.
Exploits the IV kink and aligns with heavy bullish flow at $177.50. Sells high IV (4/17), buys lower IV (4/10). Profits from accelerated decay of the 4/17 leg if earnings occur and IV crushes.
Outperforms: Stock pins at or near $177.50, IV in 4/17 leg collapses post-earnings.
Underperforms: Large directional move before 4/10 expiry.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: High. 7.9% EM is significant, and COIN has shown volatile moves historically. Downside risk is amplified by spot below max pain, but upside risk is present from bullish call flow.
!IV Crush: Extreme. IV could drop from ~66% to ~45% post-event, devastating long premium positions.
!Liquidity: Good (892k OI, 132 active strikes). Focus on strikes with high OI ($170, $185, $190).
!Sizing: Use reduced size due to binary event risk and high volatility. Favor defined-risk spreads.

What to Watch

?Spot vs $170 gamma flip level. A sustained break below could trigger accelerated selling.
?IV trajectory in 4/10 and 4/17 expirations as we approach early May for confirmation of earnings timing.
?Follow-through on the bullish $177.50 call flow for directional clues.
?Bitcoin price action, as it remains a key correlated driver for COIN sentiment.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.