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BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc. Common StClose $156.95EOD only
Max Pain
$160.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.83
3.1% from close
Price Gap
+3.05
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
12
Low premium
P/C OI
0.85
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BKNG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
BKNG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

BKNG earnings 75 days out; high IV and bearish flow suggest downside risk but long duration limits event impact.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 7.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Massive put buying at $177/$188 strikes with 270%+ IV signals aggressive downside protection or expiration positioning.
⚠️Extreme put skew (270%+ IV) on 05/15 expirations signals panic positioning or large dealer hedge.
📈Historical 100% beat rate suggests potential upside surprise, but current flow is bearish.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$154.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,349 (0.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (75 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$6.33 (4.1%)
  • 2026-05-29 (14d): ±$9.30 (6.0%)
  • 2026-06-05 (21d): ±$11.80 (7.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 7d IV ~50%, 14d ~40%, 21d ~35% from expected moves.

Crush estimate: N/A – distant event; crush not quantifiable.

Skew: Put skew elevated; deep OTM puts trade at extreme IV (>300%) indicating tail risk pricing.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided; beat rate 100% (5/5) suggests consistent upside surprise.

Directional bias: Bullish from beats, but current flow contradicts.

Key Levels

1$154.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $147.81/$160.46
3Max pain pins: $166 (2026-05-15); $168 (2026-05-22); $170 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Net premium -$98M; put/call vol ratio 2.2:1 – heavy put buying.

Bearish sentiment or hedging demand dominates.

Unusual prints: $177/$188 Puts (05/15) with vol/OI >4 and IV >250%.

Expiration-related hedging or large directional bets.

Strategies

Bullish Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-22 $160.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $160.00 call
Debit: $1.01-$1.24
Max loss: $1.24
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if stock breaks below $154 support.
Highest rank due to liquidity pass, contango tailwind, and alignment with 100% beat rate history.
Outperforms: Sells near-term high IV call, buys longer-term lower IV call, profiting from time decay and volatility contraction.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Defensive Put Calendar
Sell 2026-05-22 $155.00 put / buy 2026-05-29 $155.00 put
Debit: $1.35-$1.65
Max loss: $1.65
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if stock rallies above $160 resistance.
Capitalizes on elevated near-term put IV and bearish flow, but longer duration reduces event risk.
Outperforms: Sells high-IV near-term put, buys lower-IV later put, benefiting from contango while hedging tail risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-22 $155.00/$152.50 put wing and $160.00/$162.50 call wing
Credit: $1.42-$1.73
Max loss: $0.77
Max gain: $1.73
BE: 153.27 / 161.73
Trigger: Adjust wings if stock breaches $152.50 or $162.50. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (55%).
Lowest rank due to liquidity fail; suitable only for patient fills.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call wings to collect premium, profiting from low realized volatility.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Stock 7.4% below max pain ($166) – downward pressure.
!Gamma flip at $154 – break below accelerates selling.
!High VIX (18.4) amid market decline – risk-off environment.

What to Watch

?Near-term expiry pin action at $154 support.
?Put OI concentration at $170 call resistance.
?Reversal in net premium flow for sentiment shift.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.