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BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc. Common StClose $184.56EOD only
Max Pain
$173.40
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.42
1.9% from close
Price Gap
-11.16
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
85
High premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BKNG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
BKNG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

BKNG shows elevated event IV with durable skew and a history of beats (4/4). Market ~10.5% above MP with pinning gamma; expect muted directional edge but notable IV risk into earnings.

Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: High IV + concentrated put OI near $172–176 creates pinning risk and potential sharp IV crush.
⚠️100% historical beat rate (4/4) but market already prices elevated IV — watch for muted realized move
📌Put OI concentration near $172–176 implies pinning risk into earnings

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$176.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,993 (8.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (11 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$6.35 (3.3%)
  • 2026-05-01 (14d): ±$13.25 (6.9%)
  • 2026-05-08 (21d): ±$7.75 (4.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV spiking; 7–21d shows elevated term with 14d peak.

Crush estimate: Material crush expected post-release (~large % of front-week IV vs 14d), front-week >14d.

Skew: Put concentration below spot creates downside pinning; calls expensive near short-dated expiries.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically moves roughly in line with expected; 4/4 beats preserved upside but not guaranteed move magnitude.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias from beat history but offset by current spot above max-pain and mixed flow.

Key Levels

1$176.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $185.66/$198.36
3Max pain pins: $174 (2026-04-17); $176 (2026-04-24); $179 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Net premium heavily negative (~-31.7M)

Dealer selling options; increases gamma exposure and pinning potential

Put OI cluster 8.3% below spot (~$172–176)

Gamma flip point near $176 supports pinning/demand for downside hedges

Strategies

Front-week call sell / May long (call diagonal)
Sell 2026-04-24 $201.60 call / buy 2026-05-15 $192.00 call
Debit: $6.55-$8.00
Max loss: $8.00
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close short leg into day‑of or if spot breaches $186 invalidation; roll or trim after release Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (151%).
Harvest rich front-week IV while retaining May upside; lower tail risk than naked short
Outperforms: Sell 4/24 call, buy 5/15 call to collect premium and keep directional upside exposure into earnings
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Very short-dated short strangle
Sell 2026-04-24 $189.60 put + sell $195.20 call
Credit: $5.74-$7.01
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.01
BE: 182.59 / 202.21
Trigger: Keep small size, hedge with calls or cut if heavy flow or spot nears wings; avoid holding post-crush Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (116%).; short_put: Wide spread (74%).
Maximizes premium from spiking front-week IV and pinning but carries unlimited upside risk
Outperforms: Sell 4/24 put and call to capture pre-earnings premium; expects pinning to hold
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Post-earnings IV crush can be large — short front-week exposure risky
!Pinning may keep spot near $172–179 pre-event; gap risk if catalyst surprises
!Unusual short-dated call prints show directional activity into expiry

What to Watch

?Prices vs max-pain levels $174–179
?Volume/flow into 1w and 14d expiries pre-release
?Implied move vs realized volatility around event

Read the Earnings analysis for BKNG for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.