Earnings Verdict
BKNG earnings 7/29 with 100% beat rate; high IV amid bearish flow and below max pain.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 11.4% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: 100% beat rate but bearish positioning suggests caution.
📉Bearish flow with put/call vol ratio 1.8
📈100% beat rate but priced in?
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$154.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,348 (0.7% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (77 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$4.85 (3.1%)
- 2026-05-22 (9d): ±$6.78 (4.4%)
- 2026-05-29 (16d): ±$10.00 (6.5%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Steep: 2d ±3.1%, 1w ±4.4%, 3w ±6.5%
Crush estimate: Large post-event crush expected.
Skew: Put-heavy flow; call wall at $170-$232.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Not available.
Directional bias: Bearish from flow and spot below MP.
Key Levels
1$154.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $150.18/$159.88; 1w $148.25/$161.80
3Max pain pins: $175 (2026-05-15); $170 (2026-05-22); $170 (2026-05-29)
Flow Highlights
457 vol 5/29 $235 call vs OI 115
Speculative far OTM call.
268 vol Jan '27 $145 put vs OI 164
Long-term bearish hedge.
Strategies
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $154.40/$154.20 put wing and $160.00/$162.40 call wing
Trigger: Exit at 50% of max gain or before earnings if spot approaches wings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (110%).; long_put: Wide spread (120%).; short_call: Wide spread (114%).; long_call: Volume below 5.
Only eligible candidate; collects premium with defined risk ahead of earnings.
Outperforms: Sells put/call wings near expected range $154-$160, expresses range-bound view.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Risk Assessment
!Spot 11.4% below max pain, could revert.
!High IV premium may decay fast.
What to Watch
?Gamma flip near $154.
?Resistance at $160.