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BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc. Common StClose $161.06EOD only
Max Pain
$160.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.22
4.5% from close
Price Gap
-1.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BKNG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
BKNG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Regime is High vol + Pinning with dealers long gamma (GEX +$24.5M) and spot sitting around the gamma flip (~$176). Best strategy is premium selling inside the 1-week EM guardrails (collect credit into pin risk) or a defined-risk directional call spread if leaning upside. Key risk is a gap beyond the 1-week EM ($168.28–$184.93) on news/guidance which would blow out short premium positions.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 4.5/10 (provided): +1 pinning (GEX +$24.5M); -1 mixed flow; -0.5 spot 3.6% above MP
Most important: Dealer positioning: GEX +$24.5M with gamma flip ~176 — dealers likely to pin/lean into that area which amplifies pin risk around current spot.
📌Gamma flip sits at ~$176 (spot $176.60); dealers likely to pin in that band.
⚠️Very steep front-end IV: 1d ATM IV 92.1% vs 8d 50.9% — expect a sizable IV pullback after the event.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (Avg IV 88.7%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (Total GEX +$24.5M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (P/C Volume 0.93, Net Premium -$48.0M)
Spot vs MP
Above (Spot $176.60 vs max pain near $170-$176)
Gamma flip: ~$176.00 — Put OI concentration ~10,826 at/near the flip; below ~$176 dealers amplify directional moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (19 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (1d): : : :
  • 2026-04-17 (8d): ±$8.32 (4.7%) [$168.28 - $184.93]
  • 2026-04-24 (15d): ±$11.15 (6.3%) [$165.45 - $187.75]

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep short-term ATM IV: 2026-04-10 (1d) ATM 92.1% then drops to 50.9% (8d) and 48.3% (15d) — a very sharp front-end kink consistent with an isolated event day or concentrated dealer hedging.

Crush estimate: ~40-45 vol pts from 1d to 8d (92.1% -> 50.9%) for the nearest day-term; for options spanning the earnings window expect a post-event IV pullback toward the 48-63% range (8–29d expiries).

Skew: Skew is mixed: puts are relatively rich at very short deltas (high IV on deep puts) while calls show large structural OI farther out (call OI wall $188–$244).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3 of last 4 quarters reported beats or inline: most recent EPS surprises positive or inline)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly computed in pre-computed fields; historical EPS table available showing consistent outperformance vs EPS ests in 3 of last 4 quarters

Directional bias: Tends to print positive surprises (3 of last 4), which supports a mild upside tilt but not a guaranteed gap

Key Levels

1$176.00 gamma flip
2$170.00 max pain (2026-04-10)
3$174.00 (GEX +$1.9M pin magnet)

Flow Highlights

Large call OI wall concentrated in the $188-$244 range (notably $236.00 OI 10,200 / $244.00 OI 9,976).

Structural longer-dated call sellers/buyers are positioned well above spot — if spot rallies into $188+ dealers may need to hedge by buying stock, amplifying upside momentum.

Near-term GEX concentrations: +$3.7M at $180.00 and +$1.9M at $174.00 (pin magnets within ±2% of spot).

Dealer gamma is concentrated near current levels which supports pinning around the $174–$180 band into expirations.

Strategies

Front-week iron condor (defined-risk premium sell)
Sell 2026-04-24 174C / Buy 2026-04-24 184C, and Sell 2026-04-24 170P / Buy 2026-04-24 160P
Credit: $1.80-$2.40
Max loss: $8.20
Max gain: $2.40
BE: $171.60 / $176.40
Trigger: Enter 3–7 days before earnings if IV > 48% on the 15d term and market bid/ask spreads are tight.
High short-term IV and strong dealer pinning (GEX +$24.5M) favor premium collection inside the EM guardrails; defined risk limits tail exposure.
Outperforms: Stock remains within the 1-week EM ($168.28–$184.93) and pins near the gamma flip ~$176.
Underperforms: A gap >1-week EM (beyond ~$168 or ~$185) occurs on guidance or macro shock.
Calendar diagonal call spread (upside tilt with IV differential)
Buy 2026-04-24 176C and Sell 2026-05-15 184C (use 176/184 strikes available)
Debit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: Up to spread width less net debit (≈8.00 - debit)
BE: ~$179.50 (depends on net debit and roll)
Trigger: Enter if you have a directional bullish bias and want to monetize elevated near-term IV (buying short-dated call, selling a longer-dated call).
Call OI structure and historical positive EPS surprises provide an asymmetric way to express upside while partially offsetting premium cost by selling longer-dated calls.
Outperforms: Stock gaps or runs modestly higher into/above $184 but IV compresses post-event (you keep time decay on the sold leg).
Underperforms: Stock stays pinned or drops; if IV remains elevated on the back leg the attempted hedge loses value.
Long straddle (pure volatility play)
Buy 2026-04-24 176 Straddle (176C + 176P)
Max loss: $8.30
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Downside ~168.3 / Upside ~184.9 (approx 15d EM bounds)
Trigger: Enter 1–3 days before earnings only if you expect a move materially > the 15d EM (±$11.15) or if IV hasn't popped further.
ATM 15d IV is ~48.3% but near-term 1d IV is 92.1% — if you can buy the straddle prior to a further IV ramp or expect a large actual move, payoff is asymmetric. Expect a pronounced IV crush post-event.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 15d EM by >25–30% (big beat/miss or surprising guidance).
Underperforms: Stock pins near gamma flip and IV crushes; or move is inside EM.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM for 8d is ±$8.32 (4.7%) [$168.28–$184.93]; guidance-driven gaps can exceed these bounds and quickly wipe short premium positions.
!IV crush: Very large front-end IV (1d ATM 92.1%) implies a heavy post-event IV collapse; long volatility positions pay only if realized move exceeds elevated premium and absorbs the crush.
!Liquidity & spreads: Overall liquid chain (Total OI 672,301) but some strikes show wide bid/ask ranges (e.g., some deep strikes). Use limit or neutral-fill tactics and confirm leg fills.
!Sizing: Given dealer pinning and positive GEX concentration, keep short-premium sizing small vs account size; consider defined-risk structures to cap tail gamma risk.
!Dealer flip: Gamma flip ~$176 means moves below that could see dealer behavior change (amplification of moves) — be wary of one-sided directional exposure.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the earnings date — particularly the 8d and 15d ATM IVs (50.9% and 48.3%).
?Unusual activity in out-of-range calls (structural OI $188–$244) that could fuel hedging flows if spot rallies.
?Positioning around the gamma flip ~$176 and the near-term GEX concentrations at $174 and $180.
?Any pre-earnings guidance leaks or sell-side notes that could create a gap beyond the 1-week EM.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.