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BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc. Common StClose $156.95EOD only
Max Pain
$160.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.83
3.1% from close
Price Gap
+3.05
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
12
Low premium
P/C OI
0.85
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BKNG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
BKNG Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/28 (inferred). IV is elevated at 51%, but term structure shows a modest kink, suggesting a crush play is viable. The stock is below max pain, creating a mild upward pull. Historical data shows a strong beat rate and tendency to gap up, but the expected move is relatively modest at ±5.0% for the 10-day period.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 clear earnings date inference; +0.5 elevated IV; -0.5 low absolute OI/volume vs mega-caps
Most important: IV term structure shows a clear kink at the 4/24 expiration (43.6% vs 41.8% pre), strongly inferring an earnings date of 4/28.
⚠️Earnings date (4/28) is inferred from IV term structure kink, not explicitly stated. Confirm via company IR.
📊Historical data shows 100% EPS beat rate with an average surprise of +13.8%.
💧Options liquidity is low relative to mega-caps. Prioritize strikes with visible OI/volume.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 51%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$0.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-35.2M, P/C 0.92)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 2.1% (spot $4210.32 vs MP $4300)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (28 days)inferred

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (24d): ±$178.90 (4.2%)
  • 5/01 (31d): ±$172.70 (4.1%)
  • 5/08 (38d): ±$223.25 (5.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Kink at 4/24 expiration (43.6% vs 41.8% pre-4/17). Elevated IV (51% avg) with post-earnings expirations (4/24, 5/01) trading at ~43-44%.

Crush estimate: ~7-10 vol pts, back to ~36-38% range (post-5/08 term structure).

Skew: Flow is mixed but net premium negative (-$35.2M) with P/C ratio of 0.92, indicating slightly more put buying pressure overall, though specific OTM put walls exist.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price move data provided. EPS surprises are consistently positive, averaging +13.8%.

Directional bias: Strong positive EPS surprise history suggests upward bias on report.

Key Levels

1$4300 (max pain, key resistance)
2$4250 (4/02 max pain, OI call wall)
3$4400 (5/01 max pain, OI put wall)
4EM 4/24: $4030 - $4390

Flow Highlights

Massive bullish flow in deep OTM $3300/$3400 calls (+$25.5M net premium).

Likely long-dated, low-delta speculation or hedging, not a near-term earnings bet.

Significant bearish flow in $3840-$4100 puts (-$5M to -$6M net each).

Institutional put buying for protection or directional downside bets ahead of earnings.

Strategies

Short Strangle (IV Crush)
Sell $4030 Put & Sell $4390 Call (4/24 expiration)
Credit: $90.00-$110.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $100.00
BE: $3940 / $4480
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before inferred earnings date (4/28).
Elevated IV with a clear term structure kink provides premium to sell. Historical beat rate is positive, but the modest expected move and spot below max pain suggest a contained reaction is possible.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 4.2% expected move ($4030-$4390) and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond breakevens, especially given low liquidity may widen spreads.
Put Credit Spread (Bullish Bias)
Sell $4100 Put / Buy $4050 Put (4/24 expiration)
Credit: $12.00-$18.00
Max loss: $38.00
Max gain: $15.00
BE: $4087.00
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings if spot holds above $4180.
Leverages historical EPS beat bias, spot below max pain (upward pull), and sells into the bearish put flow seen at $4050/$4100. Defines risk while collecting premium.
Outperforms: Stock is flat or rises post-earnings, staying above $4100. Benefits from IV crush.
Underperforms: Stock gaps down below $4050, realizing max loss.
Long Straddle (Directional Breakout)
Buy $4210 Put & Buy $4210 Call (5/01 expiration)
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $4037 / $4383 (based on 4.1% EM)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >20% from current levels.
Despite modest expected move, 100% historical beat rate and large OTM speculative call flow suggest potential for a significant guidance-driven move. Using the 5/01 expiration captures the event while giving time for the move to develop.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 4.1% expected move by a significant margin (>30%).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $4210 and IV crushes post-earnings.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Expected move is ±4.1-5.3%, but low liquidity could exacerbate moves. Watch for guidance surprises.
!IV Crush: Estimated 7-10 point crush is significant but may be muted if overall market vol (VIX) remains elevated.
!Liquidity Risk: Low absolute OI (34k) and volume (8.6k) vs mega-caps. Wide bid-ask spreads likely, especially in OTM strikes. Size positions accordingly.
!Pin Risk: Spot is below nearest max pain ($4300), creating a mild upward gravitational pull into 4/02 expiry, but earnings is later.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory in the 4/24 and 5/01 expirations as earnings approaches.
?Spot price action relative to the $4300 max pain level.
?Any unusual flow in the $4250 call (largest OI wall) or $4400 put.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.