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BA

Boeing Company (The)Close $215.01EOD only

Max Pain

$225.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.98

2.8% from close

Price Gap

+9.99

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.75

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

BA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight bullish drift toward $200-$205 max pain clusters. Confidence: 8/10. Spot is pinned at the near-term max pain level, supported by a massive, distant put floor at $165. However, negative GEX and net negative premium flow suggest underlying selling pressure and a trending regime, creating a conflict between pinning mechanics and directional flow.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 8; strong pinning at $200 across multiple expirations and massive structural put support provide a high-confidence floor. Conflict: negative GEX and net premium flow indicate underlying selling pressure.

Supports: Spot at max pain ($200), massive $165 put OI wall (9,788), rising max pain trend to $210.
Conflicts: GEX -$5.7M (trending), net premium -$74.3M (bearish), P/C vol 1.09.

📌Strong multi-expiry pin at $200

🛡️Structural put floor at $165 (OI: 9,788)

📉Net premium flow -$74.3M signals institutional selling

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 44.5% is elevated but 'Normal' per classification — selling premium has edge on mean reversion.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$5.7M indicates dealers are net long gamma, amplifying spot moves — supports trending.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: Mixed — net premium bearish but P/C ratios near 1.0 show no extreme directional consensus.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot vs MP: At — spot is pinned at the $200 gravity point for the next three expirations.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder rises from $200 to $210 over 17 expirations, and the massive $165 put OI provides a structural floor that persists for months. The pin is not just a weekly event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$188.62$209.44

Max pain at $200 dominates; break below $188.62 (2d EM low) invalidates pin.

Next 1 week

$186.09$211.96

Max pain rises to $205 by 4/17; upside limited by call OI walls at $230+.

Next 2 weeks

$183.72$214.34

Guarded by 2-week EM bounds; structural put floor at $165 limits severe downside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $200 (2026-03-27); $200 (2026-04-02); $200 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $188.62/$209.44; 1w $186.09/$211.96

Support: $165.00 · $180.00 · $185.00

Resistance: $250.00 · $300.00 · $300.00

Gamma flip: ~$165.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 9,788

Structural: **Call OI walls** at $230, $250, $300 cap rallies. **Put floor** at $165-$185 (massive OI) provides a multi-month structural support zone, making a collapse below $165 unlikely without a fundamental catalyst.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-5.7M

DEX: +26.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$165 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 9,788)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$165 is far below spot, indicating minimal gamma-related pinning near current price. Dealers are net long gamma (GEX negative), meaning their hedging will **accelerate** moves away from $199: selling into rallies, buying into dips.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 44.5% is high in absolute terms, favoring premium sellers on volatility mean reversion.

Term structure: **Steeply inverted**: 2-day IV 58.8% >> 10-day 42.7%. Kink at 4/24 expiry (46.1%) likely pricing the 4/22 earnings event. Far-dated IV ~40% is relatively stable.

Skew: **Calendar spread opportunity**: Sell rich 2-day vol (58.8%) vs. buy cheaper 10-day vol (42.7%) for a ~16 vol-pt differential, betting on post-expiry vol crush.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$74.3M bearish; P/C vol 1.09, P/C OI 0.88 show slight put skew.

Directional prints: 1) $212.50C 4/02 vol 5,135 vs OI 612 (8.4x) — could be bullish speculation or short covering. 2) $205P 4/02 vol 4,027 vs OI 2,650 (1.5x) — likely protective put buying or bearish speculation. Given net negative premium, the bearish interpretation is more consistent.

Unusual: $165P 3/27 vol 1,983 vs OI 1,242 (1.6x) at IV 37.1% — large, long-dated put purchase, likely a structural hedge given the massive OI at that strike.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma regime**: Negative GEX means moves accelerate — a break of $188.62 could trigger a fast move toward $185/$180.

!**Earnings catalyst**: 4/22 earnings (EPS est: -$0.51) creates event risk; IV kink at 4/24 expiry.

!**Flow conflict**: Net negative premium suggests institutional selling may overwhelm the technical pin.

!**Macro**: BA is a cyclical bellwether; broad market weakness could pressure it through correlation.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $199.03	Negative GEX and net bearish flow provide no tailwind; better to sell puts below.
Short stock	Weak	Short shares at $199.03	Strong put floor at $165 and max pain pin create significant upside risk vs. limited reward.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $205C or $210C 4/17 (30-45 DTE)	Stock drifts to max pain; capped upside if breakout occurs.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $185P 4/17 (~7% OTM) or $180/$175 put spread	Break below $185 support; defined risk via spread is prudent.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $205C 4/17 or $210C 6/18	Negative GEX and high IV are headwinds; better to finance via put sales or spreads.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $190P / sell $180P 4/10 bear put spread	Strong pin and put floor limit downside; defined risk spread required.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	$185/$180P x $210/$215C 4/17	GEX negative (trending regime) and VIX contextually elevated make range-bound strategies risky.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $200C 4/02 (58.8% IV), buy $205C 4/17 (40.3% IV) for a ~18 vol-pt credit.	Earnings event between expirations; manage before 4/22.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $165C 1/15/27 (long-dated, deep ITM), sell $210C 4/17 against it.	Capital intensive; benefits from structural put floor and multi-week bullish drift.

Top Plays

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $185/$180 put spread, exp 4/17 (17 DTE)

Capitalizes on the strong structural put floor and multi-week bullish drift in max pain. Defined risk below key support. Better than a naked put due to negative GEX amplifying downside moves.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $183.80

Mgmt: Take profit at 70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $185 (support break).

Traders seeking bullish exposure with defined risk, preferring to collect premium near strong support.

Earnings Volatility Calendar

Sell $200C 4/02, Buy $205C 4/17

Exploits the steep IV inversion (58.8% vs 40.3%), selling rich front-week vol ahead of certain crush post-expiry. The call diagonal structure is delta-positive, aligning with the max pain drift.

Credit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: $3.00

BE: $207.00

Mgmt: Close the short leg before 4/02 expiry if profitable. Manage entire spread before 4/22 earnings.

Volatility traders comfortable with pin risk, looking to harvest high short-dated IV.

LEAPS-Powered Diagonal (PMCC)

Buy $165C 1/15/27, Sell $210C 4/17

The 30+ DTE long leg anchors to the unshakeable $165 put floor, providing cheap, long-dated delta. The short call collects premium against the multi-week drift to $205-$210. This has superior risk/reward versus a near-term call buy because the long LEAPS is insulated from near-term IV crush and theta decay.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: Varies (long call cost - premium received)

BE: Varies (long call breakeven - premium received)

Mgmt: Roll short call up and out if challenged. Hold long LEAPS as core position.

Investors with larger capital, bullish on BA over 6+ months but wanting to generate income against a range-bound move.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $190 and holds for 1 hour → Enter $185/$180 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $205 (testing resistance) → Sell $210/$215 call spread 4/17 for a bearish bet against the OI wall.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $185 (key support) → Exit all short put positions (CSPs, put spreads).

EXITSpot closes above $215 (breaking near-term call wall) → Take profits on all short call positions (covered calls, call spreads).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Neutral-to-bullish pinning with a multi-week drift toward $205-$210, anchored by a structural put floor at $165. The regime favors selling OTM puts near support and harvesting rich front-week volatility. Invalidation is a close below $185. Top plays: 1) $185/$180 put spread (defined-risk bullish) for most traders; 2) $200/$205 calendar (volatility trade) for those comfortable with pin management; 3) LEAPS diagonal (PMCC) for investors seeking longer-term exposure with income.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.