base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (Pinning & bullish flow); +1 GEX positive (+$58.8M); -1 spot 16.1% above MP
Term structure: Front-week skew elevated (3d ATM 37.6%) with a bump into 10–14d (ATM 52.2% @10d then 45% area at 2–5w). Rich short-dated and mid-dated vols create selling opportunities in the 21–42d window.
Spot vs MP: Above by 16.1% (spot $371.55 vs max pain $320 on 2026-04-10)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$58.8M, dealer positioning long-gamma/pinning)
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Below ~$300 dealers flip to negative gamma amplification; current spot is well above the flip so dealer flows are currently pinning toward near-term call walls.
OI concentrations: Call OI concentration around $360-$365 (calls OI 1,353 @360 and 1,457 @365; flow shows heavy call buying at $370/$400/$380), put OI concentration at $300 (13,147) and structural put floor $220-$300.
#1put spread (bull put)
Sell 350/340 put spread 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Pinning GEX (+$58.8M) and concentrated call walls at $360-$365 create downside support in the near term; IV is high (avg 54.7%) and 35 DTE sits inside favorable term structure (May15 ATM 45.8%). Selling a defined-risk 10-point put spread collects elevated premium while staying a reasonable distance from the $362.92 2d guardrail.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50–75% of max credit collected; roll down-and-out (extend DTE by 30–45d) if price tests short strike and spread >50% max loss; cut losses and close if underlying closes below $342 (about 1% below the lower expected 14d bound) or if IV spikes >10 vol points intraday.
#2cash-secured put (CSP)
Sell 350 put 2026-05-15 (35 DTE) cash-secured
Higher absolute credit from elevated IV; 350 is ~5.7% below spot and within strong near-term dealer pin area (365/360 magnets above). Good for conservative premium sellers comfortable being assigned stock at a discount while collecting >$2.20/share.
Mgmt: Close for 50–70% of max profit; if price drifts to within 1% of strike (close <351), consider rolling down ~10–15 points and out 30–45d; cut and buy back if price closes below $342 or IV jumps sharply while market breadth turns negative.
#3call credit spread (bear call)
Sell 390/400 call spread 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Up-side protection from dealer pinning near $360-$365; substantial call flow at $370/$380/$400 means tails can get sticky, but selling a defined-risk 10-point call spread at ~390/400 uses elevated IV to collect decent premium while limiting risk.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if AVGO rallies through the short 390 strike with momentum, roll up-and-out 10–20 points and 30–45d; cut losses if underlying closes above $400 or if IV spikes >8 vol points on big buy flow.
#4iron condor
Sell 360/350 put spread + 400/410 call spread 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Collects elevated two-sided premium with defined risk. Use the put side to play dealer pinning/support near 360–365 and the call side to monetize high call IV out near 400–410. 35 DTE selects a sweet spot in term structure where theta is meaningful.
Mgmt: Take profits at 40–60% of max credit; tighten or close if price tests either short strike (close/roll if short strike touched); reduce position size if one wing is attacked and the other remains far from short strike.
#5calendar (diagonal) — defined directional edge
Sell 2026-04-20 weekly 365 call and buy 2026-05-15 365 call (short-weekly diagonal, 10d vs 35d)
Short front-week premium where ATM IV compresses (3d ATM 37.6%) vs longer-dated 35d vol, capturing theta and benefiting from pinning near 365. Use small size given weekly gamma churn and heavy flow into calls around 365–370.
Mgmt: Keep small size; close short leg before expiry if stock rallies; target 50–70% of time-decay captured as exit; avoid holding through any sudden flow events or daily large call prints.
!Max pain values trending lower (multi-expiry MP falling from $320 → $310) — structural downside bias exists longer-term; avoid oversized one-way exposure.
!Heavy call flow at $370 / $380 / $400 (Top premium flow) — if institutions continue aggressive call buying, upside gap risk increases and can hurt naked put sellers.
!Positive GEX +$58.8M means dealers are pinning now, but a fast move could flip gamma dynamics; gamma flip estimated ~$300 — below that, dealers amplify moves.
!Unusual activity: concentrated weekly puts/calls around $370 (notably AVGO260417P00370000 PUT $370 exp 4/17 and big call flows) — monitor prints; short-week positions carry pin/assignment risk.
!No upcoming earnings within two weeks (next est 2026-06-03) — earnings not immediate, but avoid selling naked through any scheduled corporate events or dividend ex-dates (none provided).