base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pinning, bullish flow); +1 GEX positive (+$62.8M); -1 spot 12.2% above MP
Term structure: Front-week ATM: 49.5% (2d), 42.7% (5d) then 44–47% across 2–8 weeks — elevated short-end with workable carry in 30–45 DTE
Spot vs MP: Above by 12.2% (spot $350.63 vs max pain ~ $312 across expirations)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$62.8M) — dealer gamma is long near current strikes creating a magnetic effect to pin
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Gamma flip near $250 — below that dealers would amplify moves; well below current spot, so not an immediate concern for near-term credit trades
OI concentrations: Call walls at $390 (15,216 OI) and $300 call OI 25,662; put concentrations at $250 (14,005 OI), $220 (13,917 OI) and $300 put clusters ~13,353 — near-term GEX pins at $350/$345/$355
#1put spread
Sell 345/335 put spread 2026-05-08 (30 DTE)
High IV and pinning around 345/350 (GEX +$3.7M at $345 and +$5.2M at $350) makes short put spreads below spot attractive; 30 DTE gives time decay with elevated premium (ATM 46.3%).
Mgmt: Take profits at 60–70% of max profit (buy back for ~$0.33–$0.44); roll down or close if underlying closes below $340.66 (2d EM lower) or spread reaches 50% of max loss
#2call spread
Sell 360/365 call spread 2026-05-08 (30 DTE)
360 call is ~+2.7% from spot and has strong flow (Top flow shows $360 net call flow). Positive GEX pinning at 355/360 reduces chance of quick gap above. Defined-risk 5-point call spread captures elevated short-term IV with limited risk.
Mgmt: Close at 50–65% of max profit; tighten or roll up if spot > $360 and closing above 360 on daily close; cut losses at 50% of max loss or if IV spikes >+10 vol points
#3iron condor
Sell 330/325 put spread and 360/365 call spread 2026-05-08 (30 DTE)
Wide 30‑day range (May 8 EM ±10.2% gives $314.76–$386.51) combined with pinning near 350 supports an iron condor that sells premium both sides; call side supported by call flow at 360/370, put side benefits from deep put clusters lower down and dealer pinning.
Mgmt: Target 50% profit to close wings; close or hedge if either short strike is tested on daily close; tighten if net position loses 30% of initial credit
#4cash-secured put (naked put)
Sell 340 put 2026-04-20 (12 DTE) cash-secured
Very short-dated (12d) put sells capture rich front-week IV (2d ATM 49.5%) and benefit from a strong pin at 340/345; good for collectors comfortable owning shares at ~340.
Mgmt: Close at 70% of max profit within last 7 days; roll down-and-out if assignment risk imminent and you want to avoid shares; never hold naked through an earnings or dividend event (none imminent within 2 weeks)
!Max pain cluster ~ $312 (across expirations) — large gap down would invalidate bullish edge; spot is 12.2% above MP.
!Gamma flip near $250 — a move that low would accelerate downside (structural risk) though remote for near-term trades.
!Unusual activity: heavy net call flow at $350/$320/$330 and outsized volume on 4/10 strikes (e.g., $340 put OTM vol 2,203) — monitor for aggressive directional blocks near front expirations.
!Short-term IV elevated — while favorable to sellers, be ready for short-dated IV spikes; use defined-risk spreads rather than naked calls when selling upside premium.
!No earnings within 2 weeks (next on 2026-06-03) — still avoid selling large naked positions through unexpected corporate events; check for ex-dividend (none provided).