base 5; +2 strong pinning regime (GEX +$20.4M); +1 normal IV (49.6%); -1 spot below max pain; +0 no immediate earnings risk
Term structure: Humps at near-term expirations (41-44% for 1-17 DTE), rising to ~49% by June. Backwardation in the front week.
Spot vs MP: Spot $309.51 is 3.3% below max pain of $320 for the front week.
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$20.4M — mean-reverting pressure).
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Estimated near $300 based on massive $100 Put OI (16,235) and $250/$260 Put walls. Below this, negative gamma could accelerate moves down.
OI concentrations: Major Put walls at $100 (16,235 OI), $250 (13,968), $220 (13,915), $265 (13,538), $300 (13,200). Call walls at $300 (28,000), $600 (15,471), $390 (15,310), $360 (11,693).
#1put spread
Sell $300/$295 Put Spread exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Sells into the massive $300 Put OI wall (13,200) with strong pinning support. Positioned just above the critical ~$300 gamma flip zone. 17 DTE captures accelerated theta decay in elevated IV.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if price closes below $302.50 (below short strike). Roll only if credit >$0.80 for same strikes further out.
#2iron condor
Sell $295/$290 Put Spread & $325/$330 Call Spread exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Capitalizes on the strong pinning regime and defined expected move (±$28.35). Puts anchor below the $300 OI wall; calls anchor below the $330 max pain for May. High IV provides robust credit for a wide, high-probability range.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side for a credit if possible, otherwise close entire position.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $290 Put exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers comfortable with potential assignment. Strikes below major OI support ($250, $265) and the gamma flip. High IV yields >3% ROI in 31 days. Willing to own stock ~6.3% below current price.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put is tested (price < $295). Close at 70% profit. No assignment risk if comfortable owning at $290.
#4call credit spread
Sell $320/$325 Call Spread exp 2026-04-08 (8 DTE)
Spot is below front-week max pain ($320). Sells into a key resistance level with high OI ($320 Call) and elevated near-term IV (41.7% ATM). Quick theta burn with defined risk.
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit (fast decay). Exit immediately if price closes above $318.
!Gamma flip estimated near $300 — a close below this level could trigger accelerated selling as dealer hedging flips from stabilizing to amplifying moves.
!Spot is 3.3% below max pain ($320) — while pinning is strong, there is a short-term gravitational pull higher which could test call credit spreads.
!Unusual Put volume at $310, $307.50, $302.50 for 4/01 expiration — monitor for increased downside pressure in the very near term.
!Net premium flow is bullish (+$78.6M, P/C 0.77), indicating institutional buying pressure that could support the pinning thesis but may break it to the upside.
!Earnings next expected 2026-06-03 — no immediate threat, but all positions should be closed or rolled before early May to avoid earnings vol crush on longer-dated plays.