Earnings Verdict
AVGO strong bullish flow, 100% beat rate, earnings 78d away; near-term driven by OPEX pinning and call buying.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Put floor at 387.5, call buying at 400/405/417.5, pinning near 393.
🛡️Heavy put volume at $387.5 (84x OI) suggests floor at $388.
📈Call buying at $400/$405/$417.5; bullish sentiment extending into weekly expiries.
⚡Gamma pinning near $393; spot above max pain $388.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,541 (16.0% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-09-03 (78 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$10.45 (2.7%)
- 2026-06-22 (5d): ±$15.53 (4.0%)
- 2026-06-24 (7d): ±$20.25 (5.2%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Upward sloping: 1d ±2.7%, 5d ±4.0%, 7d ±5.2%; weekly IV elevated (39-48%) vs monthly (10-14%).
Crush estimate: Minimal post-OPEX crush; earnings IV build not started.
Skew: Call skew elevated at high strikes; put skew flat near spot.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: 100% beat rate; implied moves moderate.
Directional bias: Bullish per beat rate and flow.
Key Levels
1$330.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $382.45/$403.35; 1w $377.37/$408.42
3Max pain pins: $388 (2026-06-17); $368 (2026-06-18); $382 (2026-06-22)
Flow Highlights
Heavy put volume at $387.5 (84x OI) and $392.5; call volume at $400/$405/$417.5.
Bullish: put selling/call buying suggests upside bias and floor near $388.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Earnings 78d away; long-dated options face time decay.
!Gamma flip at $330; if breached, puts accelerate.
!High weekly IV may crush post-OPEX.
What to Watch
?Spot around $387.5 support and $410 resistance.
?Gamma flip level $330.
?Volume in $400/$405 calls.
?Post-OPEX IV adjustment.