Earnings Verdict
AVGO pre-earnings setup with 100% beat rate, but 83 days out. Near-term IV low, deep OTM put skew signals hedging. Call flow suggests bullish short-term bets.
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Deep OTM put activity ($220, IV 105.5%) indicates downside protection despite bullish historical bias.
🛡️Deep OTM put at $220 (105.5% IV) suggests large hedging activity.
🐂Aggressive call buying at $382.5 and $385, betting on short-term upside.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,622 (13.6% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-09-03 (83 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-15 (3d): ±$10.12 (2.7%)
- 2026-06-17 (5d): ±$16.85 (4.4%)
- 2026-06-18 (6d): ±$19.15 (5.0%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Near-term low IV (7-12%), steep upward slope; deep OTM puts expensive.
Crush estimate: No immediate crush; earnings 83 days away.
Skew: Put skew elevated; $220 put IV 105.5%.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Past 5 moves averaged ~5% vs expected ~5%.
Directional bias: Bullish bias from 100% beat rate.
Key Levels
1$330.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $371.95/$392.20; 1w $365.22/$398.92
3Max pain pins: $390 (2026-06-12); $395 (2026-06-15); $400 (2026-06-17)
Flow Highlights
Unusual put activity: 2,625 contracts of AVGO 2026-06-26 $220 Put (24.8x OI).
Large deep OTM put purchase suggests hedge against tail risk.
Heavy call volume: 10,135 contracts of 2026-06-12 $385 Call (8.0x OI).
Short-term bullish bet near key resistance.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!High vol regime (VIX 17.7), spot below max pain ($390), gamma flip at $330.
What to Watch
?Key levels: $382.50-$385 (call concentration), $220 put floor, $410-$500 call wall.