Earnings Verdict
AVGO 85 days from earnings. IV elevated near term with no event catalyst. Historical 100% beat rate.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 6.4% from MP
Most important: Near-term IV high; stock below max pain; put OI concentrated at 330.
🔥Unusual OTM call volume on 0DTE indicates aggressive speculation.
⚠️Stock below max pain; negative gamma pressure.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,419 (11.3% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-09-03 (85 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-12 (2d): ±$14.80 (4.0%)
- 2026-06-15 (5d): ±$18.33 (4.9%)
- 2026-06-17 (7d): ±$22.83 (6.1%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Upward sloping: 2d 4.0%, 5d 4.9%, 7d 6.1%.
Crush estimate: N/A (event far).
Skew: Put OI ratio>1; skew bearish but OTM call buying heavy.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: No data near earnings.
Directional bias: Bullish from 5/5 beats.
Key Levels
1$330.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $357.30/$386.90; 1w $353.78/$390.43
3Max pain pins: $398 (2026-06-10); $405 (2026-06-12); $415 (2026-06-15)
Flow Highlights
Massive OTM call buys on 6/10 expiry (0DTE).
Speculative or hedging; high volume vs open interest.
Strategies
Iron Condor on AVGO
Sell 2026-06-26 $350.00/$345.00 put wing and $390.00/$395.00 call wing
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or adjust on breakout.
Elevated IV and neutral bias; only eligible candidate.
Outperforms: Sell put/call wings to capture theta.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Risk Assessment
!Gamma flip at 330 (far below spot) suggests put floor.
!Call wall $410-$500 caps upside.
!Max pain $398 vs spot ~372 implies potential drift lower.
What to Watch
?Price reaction at max pain $398.
?Put OI concentration at $330 for support.
?High VIX (22) amplifies move risk.