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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $378.91EOD only

Max Pain

$395.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.57

2.3% from close

Price Gap

+16.09

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.09

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

AVGO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

AVGO faces elevated downside risk due to high volatility, negative gamma (-$55.5M) dealer positioning, and spot trading 6.4% below $390 max pain. Positive delta (+49.9M shares) limits the move. The thesis is bearish short-term, targeting support at $360 and possibly $330 gamma flip over two weeks.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 from strong alignment between negative GEX and flow, -1 due to spot proximity to max pain, +0.5 from VIX at 18.4. Net 6.5 reflects moderate bearish bias.

Supports: Negative gamma; high vol; spot below MP; VIX elevated.
Conflicts: Positive net delta; mixed flow; EM support at $360.

📉Negative gamma of -$55.5M amplifies downside moves, dealers sell into weakness.

📊Spot 6.4% below $390 max pain, pinning action lower.

🛡️Positive delta +49.9M shares provides cushion, limits sharp drops.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs typical, indicating high expected movement.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma: GEX -$55.5M (negative), dealers short gamma amplifying trends.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow, no clear net premium direction; long delta but short gamma.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below MP, 6.4% under $390 pin, bearish pinning.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol, negative gamma, and spot below MP suggest persistent bearish bias over weeks, targeting $360 support then $330 flip.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$355.49$374.54

Test support $355.49; downside bias.

Next 1 week

$357.04$372.99

Drift to $357.04 support; negative gamma accelerates.

Next 2 weeks

$337.89$392.14

Potential test of gamma flip $330; high vol increases break probability.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $390 (2026-06-26); $375 (2026-06-29); $395 (2026-07-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $355.49/$374.54; 1w $357.04/$372.99

Support: $360.00 · $337.89 · $330.00

Resistance: $390.00 · $392.14 · $400.00

Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,586 (9.6% below spot)

Structural: Max Pain: $390 (6/26), $375 (6/29), $395 (7/1). EM 2d $355.49/$374.54, 1w $357.04/$372.99. Support $360, $337.89, $330. Resistance $390, $392.14, $400. Gamma Flip ~$330.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-55.5M

DEX: +49.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$330 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,586 (9.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$55.5M (short gamma), DEX +49.9M shares (long delta). Gamma flip ~$330 (approx 9.6% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich relative to VIX (18.4) given High volatility regime, implying elevated options premiums.

Term structure: Likely steep backwardation due to event risk or high vol, but no specific data available.

Skew: Put skew likely elevated given downside risk; no actionable structure noted without explicit IV data.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium bearish -$41.6M, P/C vol ratio 1.19, OI ratio 1.07.

Directional prints: 13.7 call 370 OTM 2026-06-26 — Aggressive OTM call buying 6831 vs OI 284, vol/OI 24x, likely speculative bullish bet for expiry. 32.9 put 367.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Large ITM put volume 5885 vs OI 1127, vol/OI 5.2, suggests bearish hedging or closing.

Unusual: 13.7 call 370 OTM 2026-06-26 — Extreme vol/OI ratio 24.1 on $370 call, near-zero premium indicates speculative OTM call buying. 61.4 put 250 OTM 2026-07-31 — Deep OTM put vol 1200 vs OI 229, vol/OI 5.2, high IV 61%, unusual bearish tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside acceleration if spot breaks $360, targeting gamma flip at $330.

!Upside squeeze if spot reclaims $390 max pain, forcing dealer hedging.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long put	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-10 $360.00 put Why now: Bearish thesis with negative gamma and premium flow supports puts	IV crush and time decay if spot holds support
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $365.00/$345.00 put spread Why now: High volatility and bearish flow favor put debit spreads	Spot rally above short strike causes max loss
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-10 $355.00/$345.00 put spread Why now: Elevated downside risk from dealer gamma and spot below max pain; captures bear move.	Upside risk if spot reclaims $390; defined risk limits loss.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-10 $360.00 put Why now: Elevated vol and negative dealer gamma favor puts; asymmetric payoff.	Time decay and vol crush if move delayed; unlimited loss if rally.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread $365/$345

Buy 2026-07-10 $365.00/$345.00 put spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $365/$345 put spread; benefits from negative gamma and spot below max pain.

Why this play: Best risk/reward for multi-week bearish thesis; captures downside to $345 with defined risk.

Debit: $7.04-$8.61

Max loss: $8.61

BE: $356.39

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot reclaims $390.

Traders seeking limited-risk bearish exposure with high probability.

Bear Put Spread $355/$345

Buy 2026-07-10 $355.00/$345.00 put spread

Buy 2026-07-10 $355/$345 put spread; ideal if bearish momentum accelerates.

Why this play: Cheaper alternative targeting $345 gamma flip; lower cost but narrower profit zone.

Debit: $3.13-$3.82

Max loss: $3.82

BE: $351.18

Mgmt: Close at $345 or if spot stabilizes above $355.

Traders expecting sharp decline to $345 with small capital outlay.

Long Put $360

Buy 2026-07-10 $360.00 put

Buy 2026-07-10 $360 put; benefits from deleveraging cascade and dealer hedging.

Why this play: Asymmetric upside if spot breaks $360; high cost but unlimited gain potential.

Debit: $10.03-$12.26

Max loss: $12.26

BE: $347.74

Mgmt: Set stop at $390; take partial profits at $340.

Aggressive traders seeking maximum bearish payoff.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot closes below $360 → Buy 2026-07-10 $365/$345 put spread

IFIF spot breaks $360 on volume → Buy 2026-07-10 $360 put

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot reclaims $390 → Close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on AVGO with negative gamma and spot 6.4% below $390 max pain. Prefer bear put spread $365/$345 for defined risk. Invalidation at $390.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.