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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $392.16EOD only
Max Pain
$407.50
Next expiry Jun 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.90
2.5% from close
Price Gap
+15.34
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
41
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.13
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
AVGO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias near-term as negative dealer gamma and spot below max pain at $408 favor downside pressure, but positive DEX and VIX near 20 provide a counterbalance. Support at $382 (2d range low) and $364.51 (structural) are key; breakdown below could accelerate selloff. Confidence 4/10.

Confidence:
4 / 10
Base 5 reduced by -1 (GEX/flow contradict), -0.5 (spot 3.8% below MP), +0.5 (VIX 20); net 4.0. Override not needed.
Supports: Positive DEX (+52.5M shares), structural support at $364.51, VIX stable around 20.
Conflicts: Negative GEX (-$6.4M), spot below MP, high vol regime, weak market context (QQQ -1.15%).
⚠️Negative gamma (-$6.4M) amplifies downside moves; flip far at $330.
📊Spot 3.8% below $408 max pain; pinning unlikely near-term.
🛡️Support $364.51 (2w low) is key structural floor; DEX positive adds cushion.
📈VIX 20 suggests high vol; IV likely rich vs historical, favoring premium selling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Vol is High as IV is elevated relative to typical range, consistent with VIX ~20 and negative GEX driving hedging volatility.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma is Trending with negative total GEX (-$6.4M); next flip level far at ~$330, leaving dealer short gamma accelerating moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow is Mixed — net premium context unclear, P/C ratio not provided but negative GEX suggests bearish put flow dominance recently.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot is Below MP (max pain $408) by ~3.8%, implying dealers are short calls relative to puts, adding resistance overhead.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Structural dealer positioning (negative gamma, positive DEX) and technical support/resistance levels suggest multi-week mean-reversion or trend continuation, not a single event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$382.26$402.06
Below $382 (range low) targets $371; resistance at $402 caps upside.
Next 1 week
$371.91$412.41
Test of $371 support likely; break below opens $364.51 structural floor.
Next 2 weeks
$364.51$419.81
Range $364-$419; bias depends on support hold; DEX positive could mean reversion higher.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $408 (2026-06-10); $410 (2026-06-12); $415 (2026-06-15)
EM guardrails: 2d $382.26/$402.06; 1w $371.91/$412.41
Support: $364.51
Resistance: $400.00 · $407.50 · $410.00
Gamma flip: ~$330.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,244 (15.9% below spot)
Structural: Support: $364.51 (2w low, structural floor). Resistance: $400 (psychological), $407.5 (near MP), $410 (max pain 6/12). Gamma flip at ~$330 far below.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-6.4M

DEX: +52.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$330 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,244 (15.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers are short gamma (-$6.4M) with positive delta (DEX +52.5M shares). Net effect: amplified moves, especially downside due to negative gamma, but long delta cushions falls.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: AVGO IV is rich vs VIX (~20) given its high vol regime; implied vol likely above historical realized, suggesting premium selling opportunities.

Term structure: Term structure is likely backwardated near term (fear of downside), with elevated front-month vol decaying after events; no explicit kinks given.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to negative GEX; consider selling out-of-the-money puts below $364 if structural support holds, or buying puts for downside protection.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive $60M; put/call vol ratio 0.98 favors calls but OI ratio 1.13 favors puts, indicating mixed flow with active put buying.

Directional prints: 44.5 call 400 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 9x OI, likely bought calls, preferred bullish. 54.1 put 370 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 22x OI, likely bought puts, preferred bearish.

Unusual: 106.6 put 330 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 36x OI, deep OTM put bought, preferred bearish. 51.7 put 372.5 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 13x OI, OTM put bought, preferred bearish. 49.3 put 380 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol 8.6x OI, OTM put bought, preferred bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Market risk: macro selloff (SPY -0.29%, QQQ -1.15%) could accelerate AVGO decline.
!Volatility risk: High IV regime may expand further, causing stop-outs on direction trades.
!Gamma risk: Negative dealer gamma can lead to violent reversals if spot approaches resistance/support.
!Flow risk: Mixed flow obscures conviction; sudden large block orders could shift sentiment.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-06-26 $377.50/$365.00 put spread
Why now: Negative dealer gamma, spot below max pain 408, put buying flow.
Upside reversal if market rallies; positive DEX buffer. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-06-26 $375.00 put
Why now: High IV, put demand from flow, negative gamma.
Time decay and vega expansion if spot stabilizes.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-06-26 $417.50/$435.00 call spread
Why now: Spot below resistance, negative gamma limits rally.
Short call risk if spot breaks above 410. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Buy Put
Buy 2026-06-26 $375.00 put
Direct long put to profit from downside move, leveraging elevated IV and put demand.
Why this play: Best expresses bearish bias with high IV, liquidity pass, and alignment with negative dealer gamma.
Debit: $8.69-$10.62
Max loss: $10.62
BE: $364.38
Mgmt: Set stop at invalidation $400; consider rolling if spot rises. Target near support $364.
Aggressive traders seeking high convexity with defined risk.
#2
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $377.50/$365.00 put spread
Vertical put spread to profit from moderate decline with capped risk.
Why this play: Limits risk while benefiting from bearish move, though lower liquidity.
Debit: $3.58-$4.37
Max loss: $4.37
BE: $373.13
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $400; hold to expiration for max gain if near lower strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Traders wanting defined risk and lower cost basis.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $417.50/$435.00 call spread
Sell call spread to profit from spot staying below resistance, using negative gamma.
Why this play: Captures premium from limited upside, but less direct bearish expression.
Credit: $3.15-$3.85
Max loss: $13.65
BE: $421.35
Mgmt: Buy back spread if spot nears $400; monitor for volatility expansion. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Traders expecting consolidation or slight decline.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot price breaks below $364.51 support → THEN enter long put: Buy 2026-06-26 $375 put in entry range 8.69-10.62
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot price approaches $390 on upside → THEN roll long put to lower strike or take partial profits
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot price rises above $400 → THEN exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with support at 364.51 and resistance at 400. Favor long put on breakdown, with stop at 400.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.