AVGO
Broadcom Inc.Close $385.73EOD onlyThis page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Outlook
Bullish bias on AVGO fueled by strong QQQ tailwind, elevated VIX, and bullish flow. However, negative dealer gamma (-$1.5M GEX) introduces volatility risk and could amplify moves. Spot expected to drift toward max pain $408 in the near term.
Conflicts: Negative dealer gamma, spot below max pain.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-1.5M
DEX: +53.0M shares
Gamma flip: ~$330 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,657 (16.8% below spot))
NTM gamma: Dealers are short gamma (-$1.5M GEX) with positive delta (+53M shares). Gamma flip at ~$330, well below spot, indicating potential for volatility amplification on upward moves as delta hedges unwind.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: AVGO IV likely elevated relative to VIX (18.92) given sector-specific event risk, making long premium strategies expensive but justified by high vol regime.
Term structure: Term structure likely in contango with near-term expiry (Jun8) showing sharp kink due to event, and longer-dated IVs declining, favoring short premium or calendar spreads.
Skew: Put skew elevated on downside protection; a call calendar spread at $420 (Jun10 vs Jun12) may capture elevated near-term IV decay.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium $75.9M bullish, P/C vol ratio 0.70 favors calls.
Directional prints: 8.6 call 400 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol 20k vs OI 1.9k suggests aggressive buying; preferred read bullish. 12.9 call 395 ITM 2026-06-08 — Vol 12.7k vs OI 645, likely bought; preferred read bullish.
Unusual: 12.5 call 402.5 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 20x, last $0.01, likely bought OTM lottery; preferred read bullish. 21.1 call 407.5 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 19.1x, high IV, likely bought; preferred read bullish. 10.8 put 392.5 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol/OI 17.6x, last $0.03, possibly sold bearish bet; preferred read neutral.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Call diagonal | Conditional | Sell 2026-08-21 $460.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $390.00 call Why now: Elevated VIX and bullish flow support long back-month call; sell front-month call to reduce cost. | Dealer gamma risk may cause sharp moves; if spot falls, position loses. |
| Put credit spread | Moderate | Sell 2026-06-18 $380.00/$370.00 put spread Why now: Bullish flow and QQQ tailwind support spot holding above 400. Sell 400p/buy 390p for credit. | QQQ reversal could push spot below 400; define loss at 390. |
| Bull call spread | Moderate-Strong | Buy 2026-07-10 $420.00/$445.00 call spread Why now: Call buying pressure suggests spot can reach 420. Buy 410c/sell 420c. | Failure to break 420 limits upside; time decay if slow. |
| Bullish risk reversal | Moderate | Buy 2026-07-10 $410.00 call / sell 2026-07-10 $365.00 put Why now: Bullish flow and high put IV make selling puts attractive; buy call for upside. | Sharp downside from negative dealer gamma could cause losses on short put. |
| Long call | Conditional | Buy 2026-06-26 $405.00 call Why now: Strong call flow and QQQ tailwind; buy near 410c for upside. | Theta and negative gamma from dealer positioning may amplify decay. |
Top Plays
Watchlist Triggers
Tactical Summary
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