ARM Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 strong bullish net premium & call flow; +1 GEX pinning supports mean reversion; -1 high IV & P/C OI ratio shows long-term put positioning

Watch next session: $160C OI build in Apr 2/10 expiries; Any put flow at $152.50 or $140 to gauge downside pressure

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$9.6M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.63 — strongly call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 1.32 — overall put-skewed positioning

Today's flow is aggressively bullish with significant call buying in near-term expiries, driving a large positive net premium. However, the open interest remains skewed to puts, indicating a longer-term cautious or hedged posture beneath the surface.

Notable Prints

ARM $162.50 Call 2026-04-02

Vol: 2,371

OI: 537

Vol/OI: 4.4x

IV: 52.4%

Notional: ~$359k (est. mid $0.1515)

Intent: Fresh directional bet for a quick move above $162.50 by Friday.

Dual read: Bought to open (bullish breakout) or sold as part of a spread (neutral/capped upside). High vol/oi suggests new position.

Read-through: Most significant near-dated bullish bet. Aims for a >7% move in 2 days, aligning with the upper bound of the expected move ($156.28).

ARM $165.00 Call 2026-04-10

Vol: 1,864

OI: 389

Vol/OI: 4.8x

IV: 52.2%

Notional: ~$242k (est. mid $0.13)

Intent: Directional call buying targeting a move to ~$165 over the next 10 days.

Dual read: Likely bought to open, given volume spike and elevated IV for a 9% OTM strike.

Read-through: Confirms bullish sentiment extends beyond the weekly expiry. Part of a cluster of call buying in the $160-$175 zone for April 10th.

ARM $175.00 Call 2026-04-10

Vol: 1,078

OI: 178

Vol/OI: 6.1x

IV: 54.1%

Notional: ~$70k (est. mid $0.065)

Intent: Low-cost, high-upside directional lottery ticket.

Dual read: Almost certainly bought to open. The high vol/oi and 16% OTM strike point to speculative long call flow.

Read-through: Indicates presence of aggressive, momentum-seeking buyers willing to bet on a >15% rally in 10 days.

ARM $152.50 Put 2026-04-02

Vol: 298

OI: 151

Vol/OI: 2.0x

IV: 54.3%

Notional: ~$89k (est. mid $0.30)

Intent: Near-dated hedge or speculative bet on a dip below spot.

Dual read: Could be protective put buying (bearish/hedging) or sold for premium (neutral/bullish). Proximity to spot suggests hedging.

Read-through: The only notable put flow in unusual activity. Serves as a counterpoint to the dominant call flow, possibly defining a near-term support/resistance level.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Concentrated in Apr 2 and Apr 10 expiries at strikes $152.50, $155, $160, $162.50, $165, $175.

Put additions: Minimal in today's unusual flow. Long-term OI heavily concentrated at $110 and $115 puts.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes. Positive GEX (+$9.7M) and bullish net flow are aligned, supporting a pinning/mean-reverting regime near current spot.

OI clusters: Major Put Walls: $115 (10,326 OI), $110 (9,329 OI). Major Call Wall: $125 (8,339 OI), $160 (7,252 OI). Creates a broad support zone ~$110-$115 and a nearer-term magnet/resistance at $125-$160.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence of long-term hedging via deep OTM puts ($80, $100, $110, $115). Today's $152.50P flow could be short-term hedging against a pullback from current levels.

Max pain context: Spot ($151.28) is well above near-term max pain ($132 for 3/27, $140 for 4/2). This creates a gravitational pull lower towards those strikes, conflicting with the bullish flow thesis.

Signal vs Noise

~The massive net negative premium at the $240 strike (-$2.04M) is almost certainly noise—likely a data artifact or a single, anomalous trade at a deeply OTM strike with no relevance to current price action.

~High volume in weekly $160C and $155C is likely part of the same bullish directional theme, not independent noise.

~The elevated P/C OI ratio (1.32) reflects legacy hedging from lower price levels, not necessarily new bearish positioning today.

Key Conclusions

🚀Strong, concentrated bullish flow in weekly and April expiries targeting moves to $160-$175.

⚖️Flow (bullish) conflicts with Max Pain (bearish pull to ~$140) and long-term OI (put-skewed). Battle between short-term momentum and longer-term gravity.

📌Positive GEX suggests pinning/mean reversion is likely, making sharp breaks away from spot difficult in the near term.

🛡️Institutions remain heavily hedged via deep OTM puts, capping catastrophic downside but not preventing a pullback to $140-$125.

Read the Flow analysis for ARM for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.