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ARM

Arm Holdings plcClose $256.73EOD only

Max Pain

$210.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.38

3.3% from close

Price Gap

-46.73

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.24

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ARM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

ARM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning force, but elevated volatility and a significant distance from max pain create a tug-of-war. Confidence: 7/10 — GEX and flow are strongly aligned bullish, but spot is 14.6% above the nearest max pain, suggesting gravity may be downward over the longer term.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 14.6% from MP

Supports: GEX +$9.7M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$9.6M (bullish), P/C Volume Ratio 0.63 (call dominance), DEX +19.5M shares (dealer long delta).
Conflicts: Spot ($151.28) is far above all near-term max pain levels ($132-$145), creating a strong gravitational pull. IV is extremely high at 63.6%.

📌Strong GEX pinning near spot, but spot is far above max pain.

📈Unusual call flow into $160-$175 strikes for April expiries.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 63.6% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers and defined-risk strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$9.7M — strong positive gamma concentrated near spot, creating a powerful pinning effect and suppressing volatility.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net Premium +$9.6M with P/C Volume 0.63 — clear institutional call buying, particularly in April $160-$175 strikes.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ($151.28) is significantly above all near-term max pain levels ($132-$145), suggesting a structural overhang and potential for mean reversion lower over time.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — The bullish flow and positive GEX regime are consistent across April expirations, and the max pain ladder shows a persistent downtrend from $132 to $120 over the next year, indicating a longer-term structural bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$146.27$156.28

Strong positive gamma dominates; break below $146.27 or above $156.28 needed for momentum.

Next 1 week

$139.98$162.58

Max pain gravity ($140 on 4/2, $145 on 4/10) and high IV create a drift lower. Upside capped by $160 OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$136.35$166.20

Max pain downtrend and high IV decay pressure; a hold above $136.35 keeps the bullish flow thesis alive.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $132 (2026-03-27); $140 (2026-04-02); $145 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $146.27/$156.28; 1w $139.98/$162.58

Support: $115.00 · $110.00 · $80.00

Resistance: $160.00

Gamma flip: ~$115.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,326

Structural: **Call OI wall at $160** is the primary near-term cap. **Put floors at $115 and $110** are major structural supports, with the gamma flip near $115 acting as a potential acceleration zone.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+9.7M

DEX: +19.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$115 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,326)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX of +$9.7M means dealers are short gamma and will hedge by selling into rallies and buying into dips, reinforcing the pin. A move below ~$115 flips gamma negative, leading to accelerated selling.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 63.6% — Extremely rich. Implies high expected volatility, favoring premium sellers and defined-risk strategies.

Term structure: Humped, peaking around 31-45 DTE (60-63%). Steep drop after May, creating a calendar spread opportunity selling near-dated high IV against longer-dated lower IV.

Skew: IV term structure offers a ~5-7 vol point differential between May (63%) and July/August (58-60%) — supports reverse calendar spreads (sell May, buy July).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$9.6M bullish; P/C Volume 0.63, P/C OI 1.32 (puts dominate open interest, calls dominate recent volume).

Directional prints: **$160C 4/10**: Vol 1,768 vs OI 563 (3.1x) — likely bought calls targeting breakout. **$165C 4/10**: Vol 1,864 vs OI 389 (4.8x) — same interpretation. This is consistent with the bullish flow regime.

Unusual: **$175C 4/10**: Vol 1,078 vs OI 178 (6.1x) at 54.1% IV — aggressive OTM call buying, either a bullish bet or a hedge for a short position.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$115 — a break below triggers dealer hedging that accelerates selling.

!Extremely high IV (63.6%) — susceptible to sharp volatility crush, hurting long premium positions.

!Spot is 14.6% above nearest max pain ($132) — creates persistent gravitational pull lower.

!Upcoming earnings estimated for 2026-05-06 — will dominate volatility expectations as date approaches.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell $145/$140 put spread & $160/$165 call spread, 4/17 expiry.	GEX is positive, but VIX proxy (IV 63.6%) is >28, and spot is far from MP center, increasing range-break risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $140/$135 put spread 4/17 expiry (targeting weekly MP).	Continued drift toward max pain; defined risk below.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell 4/17 $160 call (at OI wall).	Capped upside if breakout occurs; stock may drift lower.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $150/$145 bear put spread 4/17 expiry.	High IV increases debit cost; pinning regime can lead to chop.
Long calls	Weak	Buy 4/17 $155 calls.	Extremely high IV and pinning regime are severe headwinds for long premium directional plays.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell 5/15 $150 call (IV 63%), Buy 8/21 $150 call (IV 59.7%).	Requires spot stability; theta decay on short leg must outpace long.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy 1/15/2027 $140 call, sell 4/17 $160 call against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pin and high short-leg IV can pressure returns.
Short stock	Moderate	Short stock with a stop above $160.	Strong pinning and positive GEX can cause painful squeezes; high borrow cost likely.
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Long stock with a stop below $146.	Immediate max pain gravity and high IV environment favor option strategies over outright long.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Targeting Max Pain)

Buy $150/$145 bear put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Capitalizes on the gravitational pull toward lower max pain levels ($140-$145) while the high IV and pinning regime make outright long puts expensive. Defined risk aligns with volatile conditions.

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $1.80

BE: $148.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($2.50-$3.00 credit). Exit if spot closes above $156.28 (2d EM high).

Traders seeking a defined-risk bearish bet that benefits from time decay and a drift lower, without the high cost of long puts.

Reverse Call Calendar (Volatility Sale)

Sell 5/15 $150 call, Buy 8/21 $150 call.

Exploits the humped term structure by selling rich near-dated IV (63%) and buying cheaper longer-dated IV (59.7%). Profits from volatility crush and time decay differential if spot stays near $150.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage on vol spread contraction.

Mgmt: Close when the IV spread between legs contracts by 30-40%. Exit if spot makes a sustained move beyond the 1-week expected move bounds ($140/$162.58).

Volatility traders looking for a non-directional play that benefits from high IV normalization and has positive theta.

Cash-Secured Put Spread (Premium Collection)

Sell $140/$135 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

A higher-probability play targeting the cluster of weekly max pain levels ($140-$145). Collects premium in a high IV environment with defined risk below. The 30+ DTE provides a buffer against near-term pinning chop.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $138.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-80% of max credit. Roll down/out if spot breaches $140. Close for a loss if spot breaks below $135.

Income-focused traders who are neutral-to-bearish and want to define risk while collecting high premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $156.28 (2d EM high) and gets rejected. → Enter bear put spread ($150/$145) for 4/17.

IFSpot declines to $140.00 (4/02 MP) and shows stabilization (15-min hold). → Sell $140/$135 put spread for 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $160.00 (major OI wall). → Exit all bearish positions (put spreads, short calls).

EXITSpot closes below $115.00 (gamma flip zone). → Exit all short put positions due to risk of accelerated selling.

Tactical Summary

The regime is a conflict: strong near-term pinning (bullish for range) versus powerful max pain gravity (bearish for direction). Favor selling premium in defined-risk structures (put spreads, calendars) to harvest extreme IV, with a bearish tilt toward the $140-$145 max pain cluster. The top plays offer a bearish directional spread (#1), a non-directional vol trade (#2), and a premium collection play (#3) — choose based on your conviction in the downward drift.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.