base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Term structure: Front-week IV ~30%, spike ~44% on Jul 1; suggest event risk.
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+161.8M)
OI concentrations: Max pain $230-$232; call OI wall $250-$320.
#1Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-07-02 $230.00 cash-secured put
Cash-secured put selling overpriced volatility with 34 days to earnings.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or roll if spot nears $230 before expiration.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $230.00/$227.50 put spread
Put credit spread capturing elevated put premium with downside buffer.
Mgmt: Manage at 50% profit; exit if $230 broken.
#3Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $230.00/$227.50 put wing and $245.00/$247.50 call wing
Iron condor exploiting expected pinning action around max pain.
Mgmt: (Manage at 50% profit; adjust wings if $230 or $245 breached.) Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (65%).; long_call: Wide spread (79%).
!Monitor IV spike on Jul 1 expiration.
!Call wall $250 may cap upside.
!Positive gamma reduces downside risk unless spot breaks support at $230.