base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Term structure: Front-week spike, contango, near-term IV 22-31% favorable.
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Pinning ($+84.2M)
OI concentrations: Max pain $240 for multiple dates; call wall $260-$350.
#1Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $225.00 put + sell $240.00 call
Sells $225 put and $240 call, capturing time premium in high IV environment with dealer support.
Mgmt: Monitor for pin at $240; adjust or close if IV compresses significantly.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $225.00/$220.00 put spread
Sells $225/$220 put spread, collecting premium with high probability of success.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if price breaks below $226.40.
#3Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-07-17 $225.00 cash-secured put
Sells $225 put, obligating purchase of shares at discount if assigned.
Mgmt: Roll at expiration if OTM to avoid assignment; close early at 50% profit.
!High IV may compress if VIX stays low.
!Pin risk at $240 requires monitoring.
!Positive GEX reduces crash risk but cannot rule out tail events.