base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Term structure flat near 30-35% for near expiries, longer out 36-38%
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Pinning ($+33.9M)
OI concentrations: Max pain pins at $250 (0d), $252 (2d), $255 (4d); call OI wall $260-$350. No significant put OI within 30% below.
#1Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $235.00 put + sell $260.00 call
Sell OTM put and call to capture high IV and theta decay.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if breach invalidation levels.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $235.00/$230.00 put spread
Sell put spread for defined risk bullish bias.
Mgmt: Manage at invalidation level $233.15.
#3Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $260.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $260.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later call to profit from IV crush.
Mgmt: Exit before earnings or at IV drop.
!Positive GEX but net negative premium indicates mixed dealer positioning
!Spot below max pain; potential upward drift to pin
!Weak put OI below spot increases downside exposure for short puts