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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $249.70EOD only
Max Pain
$220.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.04
1.2% from close
Price Gap
-29.70
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.58
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
AMZN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

8.0/10 — Best strategy: defined-risk premium sells or a targeted long-vol around the earnings date depending on view. Dealers are net long gamma (GEX +$413.7M) and flow is bullish, which pins price close to the $250/$245 neighborhood into expiries; use defined-risk credit spreads or controlled long straddles/strangles sized for IV; key risk is a guidance or macro surprise that pierces the dealer pin and triggers a rapid gap beyond the 2-week EM bounds ($228.62–$268.38).

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Front-week IV is elevated into the Apr 29 earnings (post-event expirations show a large term-structure kink at 2026-05-01). Watch front-expiry IV slope and any large directional flow into the $250/$245 strikes — these will determine whether pinning holds or gives way to a gap.
📅Earnings on 2026-04-29 (14d) — primary event driving the 2026-05-01 spike in IV (47.0%).
📌Pin magnet: GEX concentrations at $250 (+$49.1M) and $245 (+$22.1M) are immediate anchors around current spot $248.50.
⚖️Max pain short-term cluster: $240 (4/15) rising trend across expirations toward $245 supports the view that dealers prefer the $240–$250 window.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 37,325 (19.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (14 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$5.07 (2.0%)
  • 2026-04-20 (5d): ±$6.74 (2.7%)
  • 2026-04-22 (7d): ±$8.32 (3.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Large kink: near-dated expirations (Apr 17/24) show ATM IV ~28–30% while the post-earnings 2026-05-01 ATM IV spikes to ~47.0% (big event tenor). Back months normalize in the mid-30s.

Crush estimate: High for the 2026-05-01 expiration (material IV compression expected after the Apr 29 print); estimated sizable crush given ATM IV falls from ~47.0% to mid-30s in subsequent tenors.

Skew: Focused upside call premium at 250/255/260 with heavy call premium flow (top premium flows concentrated at $250 and $260) while downside put interest is concentrated far below ($200). Downside skew is present but less active near-term vs call accumulation.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: AMZN has historically beaten the EM baseline more often than not (historical beat rate 75% — 3/4 quarters) but moves remain within the 2‑week EM corridor most quarters; past surprises have produced upside bursts but not consistent extreme gaps.

Directional bias: Slight upside bias into and after earnings given the 75% beat rate and deterministic bullish net premium (+$231.1M) and positive flow metrics (Put/Call vol 0.42).

Key Levels

1$200.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $243.43/$253.57; 1w $241.76/$255.24
3Max pain pins: $240 (2026-04-15); $220 (2026-04-17); $230 (2026-04-20)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated premium and GEX at $250 and $245

Both GEX (+$49.1M at $250; +$22.1M at $245) and premium flow (top premium at $250 call) create a pinning magnet just above spot, making $250 a likely short-term anchor unless a large shock occurs.

Long-dated call OI wall at $275–$300

Structural upside call OI suggests dealer delta exposure if price approaches $275–$300; this becomes a resistance zone where call selling/hedge flows can accelerate.

Put OI concentration at $200 (37,325 OI)

Gamma flip and deep put floor near $200 — material protective concentration but far from spot; it reduces the probability of dealer-driven strong downside pin below the $200 gamma flip in the near term.

Strategies

Defined put-credit spread into earnings
Sell 2026-05-01 $235.00/$220.00 put spread
Credit: $2.50-$3.06
Max loss: $11.94
Max gain: $3.06
BE: $231.94
Trigger: Close or roll into post-event expirations after realized IV collapses; tighten or hedge if price breaks below $240 support or if large negative flow appears.
Best risk-adjusted way to harvest front-cycle premium with dealer pinning supporting $245–$250; defined loss keeps gap risk manageable.
Outperforms: Sell a near-term put ~Δ0.25 and buy a lower put ~Δ0.12 in the 14–23 DTE window (target the 2026-05-01 event tenor). Collect rich premium while relying on GEX concentration at $245–$250 to contain downside.
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.
Targeted long straddle on the 2026-05-01 tenor
Buy 2026-05-01 $250.00 put + buy $250.00 call
Debit: $17.89-$21.86
Max loss: $21.86
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 228.14 / 271.86
Trigger: Take off partial position after a strong directional move; exit remaining into IV collapse or use spreads to convert to defined-risk if IV remains elevated.
Direct way to express a view that realized move will exceed implied move given 75% historical beat rate and asymmetric upside flow; captures large moves both directions.
Outperforms: Buy ATM calls and puts in the 14–23 DTE window (target 2026-05-01) to capture a large post-earnings move; prefer if you expect >~6–8% move or are long volatility exposure.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Guidance shock or macro surprise can cause price to jump beyond the 2-week EM bounds ($228.62–$268.38); short premium strategies face open-tail risk.
!IV crush: 2026-05-01 ATM IV (~47.0%) is elevated — long-vol buyers need a sufficiently large move to overcome post-print IV collapse; short sellers risk rapid assignment/large mark-to-market if move occurs.
!Liquidity: Option chain is liquid at common strikes (250, 260, 275, 300) and expirations; avoid thin strikes outside provided available strikes list (use only listed strikes).
!Sizing: With GEX +$413.7M and bullish flow, size short premium trades conservatively — a 2–3% position of risk per strategy is prudent given event uncertainty.

What to Watch

?IV slope: movement in ATM IV between 2026-04-24 and 2026-05-01 — steepening suggests buying pressure and increases value of long-vol approaches.
?Large block trades at $250/$245: continued heavy call buys or put sales could reinforce the pin; heavy directional buys near $260–$275 suggest break-out risk.
?Real-time flow into $275–$300 calls (structural call OI wall) — acceleration could create resistance and hedge selling flows.

Read the Earnings analysis for AMZN for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.