Earnings Verdict
AMZN bullish flow with high confidence, supported by call-heavy volumes and positive gamma. Weekly pin at $262 may cap near-term upside.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Aggressive call buying in weekly expirations, especially 5/26 $270, indicates strong bullish sentiment ahead of expiration.
📈Call vol ratio 0.34, massive bullish flow.
⚠️Net premium $106M positive, but gamma pin at $262 may cap.
📊Historical beat rate 80% (4/5 quarters).
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,870 (24.9% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (69 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-26 (4d): ±$4.15 (1.6%)
- 2026-05-27 (5d): ±$2.28 (0.9%)
- 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$7.65 (2.9%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Front-week elevated (16-25% IV), back-week lower; VIX 16.7.
Crush estimate: Post-weekly expiry crush expected, not earnings-driven.
Skew: Put/call vol ratio 0.34, slight put premium skew but call volume dominates.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: 80% beat rate suggests positive surprises historically.
Directional bias: Bullish given beat rate and current flow.
Key Levels
1$200.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $264.05/$268.60
3Max pain pins: $262 (2026-05-22); $262 (2026-05-26); $262 (2026-05-27)
Flow Highlights
Massive 5/26 $270 call buying: vol 24k vs OI 1.8k, vol/OI 13.7.
Aggressive bullish positioning for weekly expiry.
5/22 $267.5 put buying: vol 24.8k vs OI 4k, vol/OI 6.1.
Hedging ahead of same-day expiration.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Gamma pinning at $262 may limit upside.
!Call OI congestion at $270-$290 resistance.
!Put floor at $200, far from spot.
!VIX 16.7 suggests complacency.
What to Watch
?5/26 $270 call OI for gamma squeeze.
?Spot break above $268.60 EM guardrail.
?5/22 expiration pin action.