thetaOwl

AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $268.46EOD only
Max Pain
$260.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.56
1.3% from close
Price Gap
-8.46
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.58
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
AMZN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMZN far from earnings (70 days). Strong bullish flow with pinning at $260-262. IV near-term ~22% vs VIX 16.8, not earnings-driven.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Heavy call buying and OI wall at $290 suggest upside bias, but pinning and low VIX warrant caution.
📈Call OI wall at $290-$370 caps upside? But heavy new buying at 267.5 suggests short-term bullish.
⚠️Put OI concentrated at $260 (25.5% below spot) supports pinning regime.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$200.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,873 (25.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (70 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (1d): ±$3.56 (1.3%)
  • 2026-05-26 (5d): ±$5.72 (2.1%)
  • 2026-05-27 (6d): ±$4.03 (1.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV ~22% (weekly), backwardated relative to VIX? Longer-term likely lower. No earnings premium yet.

Crush estimate: None imminent; earnings 70 days away, near-term crush negligible.

Skew: Put skew elevated at 260 and below; call OI wall at 290+.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 80% (4/5 qtrs), avg earnings move ~4% but current IV low.

Directional bias: Slight bullish bias based on flow and regime.

Key Levels

1$200.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $264.89/$272.02; 1w $262.73/$274.18
3Max pain pins: $260 (2026-05-22); $262 (2026-05-26); $262 (2026-05-27)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume: 7094 contracts at $267.5 for May 27 (52.9x OI); also 2669 at $272.5 (May 26).

Aggressive call buying suggests bullish positioning, likely by institutions.

Heavy put volume: 26439 at $262.5 for May 22 (6x OI) and 9338 at $267.5.

Speculative put buying hedging downside, but could also be market-maker hedging.

Strategies

Risk Assessment

!Gamma pinning at $260-262 may cap upside near term.
!Spot far above put floor ($200-200) but high OI at 260 and 250.
!Low VIX (16.8) may signal complacency before potential catalyst.

What to Watch

?Spot holding above $270 support; break above $275 resistance.
?Volume in weekly options: if call OI wall at 275+ is tested, gamma squeeze possible.
?Any shift in put/call ratio toward puts as earnings nears.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.