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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $270.64EOD only
Max Pain
$265.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.83
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-5.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.57
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
AMZN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

AMZN is in a pinning regime with strong dealer long-gamma (GEX +$414.9M) and large bullish premium concentrated around $250/$225/$260 strikes. Best strategy is a directional/vol play that uses the pin near $250 (e.g., skewed call-selling or defined-risk credit spread) or a targeted long-vol into the large May term kink; IV crush risk is concentrated around the May 1 expiration where ATM IV jumps to 47.8%. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that overwhelms dealer pinning (gap > EM guardrails $241.42-$256.62).

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$414.9M, bullish flow); +1 pinning; -1 spot 8.3% above max pain; +0.5 VIX 18.36
Most important: Watch the IV term-structure kink into the 2026-05-01 expiration (ATM 47.8%) — it signals where event-driven vol is concentrated.
📈GEX +$414.9M concentrated at $250/$245/$240 — $250 is the short-term pin magnet.
🧭EM 1w $241.42-$256.62 — use as tactical guardrails for short-term premium sales.
🔎May-1 ATM IV 47.8% shows the largest event vol is in the 17d bucket — consider buying that bucket only if you expect a move > ±$20.55 (8.2%).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Gamma flip ~200 (put OI concentration 36,729, ~19.7% below spot). Below ~$200 dealers amplify moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (16 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-15 (1d): : ±$3.52 (1.4%) [$245.50 - $252.54]
  • 2026-04-20 (6d): ±$7.60 (3.0%) [$241.42 - $256.62]
  • 2026-05-01 (17d): ±$20.55 (8.2%) [$228.47 - $269.57]

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated ATM IVs are low (1d 23.6%), modest 3d/6d (30.1% / 28.0%), but there is a pronounced spike at the 17d expiry (2026-05-01 ATM 47.8%). That kink implies event-driven vol concentrated into the late-Apr/early-May window.

Crush estimate: ~12 vol pts around the May-1 kink (ATM 47.8% potentially settling toward mid-30s post-event); near-term expirations (04/15-04/22) show lower ATM IV (23.6%–31.7%) so post-event IV drop there should be modest.

Skew: Call-heavy premium: calls materially dominate puts at near-spot strikes (Top Premium Flow shows large net call dollars at $250, $225, $260), skew is call-rich rather than put-rich.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat or materially surprised upside: 2025-09-30, 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31)

Avg move vs expected: Historical actual moves not tabulated here, but the stock has shown upside surprises recently while expected-move ranges are moderate (example: 17d EM ±$20.55 or 8.2%).

Directional bias: Bias toward upside on beats (recent majority of surprises were positive)

Key Levels

1$250.00 (GEX concentration +$49.4M, pin magnet, +0.4% from spot)
2$245.00 (GEX concentration +$37.8M, pin magnet, -1.6% from spot)
3$240.00 (GEX concentration +$12.6M, pin magnet, -3.6% from spot)
4EM 1w: $241.42 - $256.62
5$200.00 (gamma flip / put floor — structural)

Flow Highlights

Massive net call premium at $250.00 (Call $129,618,275 / Put $19,871,558 / Net $109,746,716).

Large directional call exposure centered at $250 — dealers are likely long-delta hedged near this strike, reinforcing pinning and making $250 a short-term magnet.

Significant call premium also concentrated at $225.00 and $260.00 (Net $98,457,588 and $79,782,654 respectively).

Call-heavy flow across multiple strikes up the chain implies one-sided positioning; upside gaps could force dealer selling above heavy call walls ($265-$300 call OI wall) but below that dealers will likely try to pin.

Strategies

Short iron condor (defined-risk premium sale)
Sell 04-17 245/240 put spread + sell 04-17 255/260 call spread (use available strikes 240/245 and 255/260).
Max loss: $5.00
Max gain: Net credit received
BE: Inside the combined wings (roughly 240+credit / 260-credit)
Trigger: Enter 2-5 days before event if IV for 04-17 remains at or below current 30.1% ATM (3d).
Pinning regime (GEX +$414.9M) and concentrated GEX at 250/245/240 make range-selling into the 04-17 window attractive; defined risk avoids large gap exposure.
Outperforms: Stock stays within 04-17 EM guardrails ($242.80 - $255.24) and pinning near $250 holds.
Underperforms: Guidance-driven gap > EM bounds or heavy move beyond 260 or below 240.
Directional call spread (bullish, limited risk)
Buy 04-17 250/260 call vertical (long 250 call, short 260 call) or if prefer cheaper, 04-17 245/255 call vertical using available strikes.
Max loss: Premium paid (debit)
Max gain: Difference between strikes minus debit
BE: Long-strike + debit paid
Trigger: Enter when you have conviction of an upside beat or if spot breaks above $252.54 (1d EM upper) with positive tape.
Flow is strongly call-biased and AMZN has recent upside surprise history; limited-risk verticals exploit that bias while capping dealer reaction above large call walls ($265-$300).
Outperforms: Earnings beat + upside guide; captures upside with limited risk and benefits from the skew to calls.
Underperforms: Stock pins at $250 or disappoints and IV collapses; wide crush into May if event priced out to later expiry.
Long straddle/strangle into the May kink (vol play)
Buy 2026-05-01 straddle/strangle (use 250 straddle or 245/255 strangle) to capture the event indicated by the 17d ATM IV spike (47.8%).
Max loss: Premium paid
Max gain: Unlimited (straddle) / large (strangle)
BE: Strike : ~strike + premium
Trigger: Buy if IV remains elevated at the 17d expiry (ATM ~47.8%) and you expect a move larger than the 17d EM ±$20.55 (8.2%).
Term structure shows the largest event volatility concentrated in the 17d bucket (ATM 47.8%); buying that bucket captures event risk if you expect a larger-than-priced move.
Outperforms: Actual move > EM (well beyond ±$20.55) or a surprise that re-prices the May-dated event.
Underperforms: Stock pins near strike and IV collapses post-announcement; also expensive if move stays within EM.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM 1d and 1w bounds are relatively narrow (1d ±$3.52; 1w $241.42-$256.62). Guidance or structural surprises can produce gaps that exceed these ranges and blow through defined-risk wings.
!IV crush: Expect modest crush for near-dated expiries (ATM 23.6%–31.7% for 1d–10d) but a large implied-vol repricing around 2026-05-01 (ATM 47.8%) could create big moves; long-vol into May faces elevated premium and must beat a ±$20.55 move to profit.
!Liquidity: Chain is very liquid (Total OI 4,354,303; heavy volume on many strikes). Use limit orders; large size could move fills around top strikes ($250, $275).
!Sizing: Given dealer pinning (GEX +$414.9M), sellers can be rewarded but should size to withstand rare gap events beyond EM rails; defined-risk structures preferred if uncertain.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for 2026-05-01 (ATM 47.8%) — any front-month reprice toward that bucket indicates event timing/importance.
?Unusual activity at near-spot puts/calls: heavy net call premium at $250 and large flows at $245/$260 (Top Premium Flow numbers).
?Price action around $250/$245/$240 GEX concentrations — breaks through these could signal dealer gamma flip dynamics.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.