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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $270.64EOD only
Max Pain
$265.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.83
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-5.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.57
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
AMZN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

AMZN is in a pinning, bullish flow regime with dealers long gamma (Total GEX +$571.4M) and spot trading above max pain — base strategy is premium selling inside expected-move rails. Best single trade is a defined-risk iron (condor/winged) into the May 1 cycle to collect elevated term premium; key risk is a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 18‑day EM (~±$19.95) and produces a large directional gap beyond dealer pinning influence.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Monitor IV term structure into the 18d point (2026-05-01 ATM 46.8%) — whether IVs reprice higher or pull back before you leg in.
📅Earnings scheduled 2026-04-30 (TBD) — term structure shows a clear volatility kink at the 18d node (May 1 ATM 46.8%).
📌Dealer GEX heavily concentrated at $240.00 (+$196.6M) — expect pinning pressure near spot absent a large gap.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (17 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-15 (2d): : :
  • 2026-04-17 (4d): ±$6.60 (2.8%) [$233.29 - $246.49]
  • 2026-04-20 (7d): ±$7.70 (3.2%) [$232.19 - $247.59]
  • 2026-05-01 (18d): ±$19.95 (8.3%) [$219.94 - $259.84]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-dated ATM IVs sit ~26-31% through 11d, then jump to ATM 46.8% at 18d (2026-05-01) — clear term-kink centered on the 18d point.

Crush estimate: ~10 vol pts (post-event reversion from ~46.8% down toward ~36% multi-week levels)

Skew: Call-heavy premium flow and large call OI clusters (notably in the $240-$260 region) make calls relatively richer in premium flow terms but puts show concentrated OI at $235/$230 supporting downside pinning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 last quarters beat: 2025-09-30, 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided; recent beats have correlated with upside gaps but sample is small

Directional bias: Bias to upside on beats (recent pattern: 3 of last 4 prints were upside surprises)

Key Levels

1$240.00
2$232.50
3$260.00

Flow Highlights

Very large net call premium at $190.00 and $220.00 (Top premium flow: $190 call net $151,137,414; $220 call net $111,354,015).

Institutional directional call buying / long-dated positioning — supports bullish skew and dealer short-delta hedging into the underlying which reinforces pinning near dealer GEX concentration.

Concentrated GEX +$196.6M at $240.00 and +$8.9M at $245.00 (near-spot pin magnets).

Strong dealer pin around $240 — reduces short-term drift away from that level absent a large gap move.

Strategies

Defined-risk iron condor (premium sell)
Sell 235/225 put spread and sell 250/260 call spread exp 2026-05-01
Credit: $2.20-$3.00
Max loss: $7.80
Max gain: $3.00
BE: Lower breakeven ~232.8 (235 - credit), upper breakeven ~253.0 (250 + credit)
Trigger: Enter 4-7 days before earnings if IV on the 18d node is at or above current 46.8% and you can collect mid-to-high end of credit range.
Pinning regime (GEX concentration at $240) + bullish flow support selling premium inside EM; defined-risk structure limits gap exposure while harvesting net premium (Net Premium $498.7M supports rich short-side markets).
Outperforms: Stock stays inside the 18d EM rails ($219.94-$259.84) and especially inside the tighter 1w EM ($232.19-$247.59).
Underperforms: Large directional gap > EM (move >~±$19.95) or a surprise that triggers a directional re-rate before expiry.
Long straddle (vol directional)
Buy 240 straddle exp 2026-05-01 (long 240C + long 240P)
Max loss: $20.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Lower/upper ~220.0 / 260.0 (straddle price ~$20.00 based on 18d EM ~±$19.95)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV hasn't run up materially above the current 46.8% or if you expect a multi-point surprise / guidance shock.
High probability of IV reversion post-print and historically skew toward upside surprises — use only when you expect move > priced EM or if directional conviction exists.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (big beat/miss or guidance shock); good for directional tail events.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $240 and IV collapses post-print (estimated ~10 vol point crush).
Directional debit call spread (bull tilt)
Buy 240C / Sell 250C exp 2026-05-01
Debit: $1.60-$2.40
Max loss: $2.40
Max gain: $7.60
BE: Approximately 241.6 - 242.4 (240 + premium paid)
Trigger: Enter into bullish flow or ahead of print if you expect upside surprise or continuation of the bullish dealer/flow backdrop.
Limited-cost way to play upside given heavy call demand and dealer pinning; defined risk avoids full straddle IV-crush pain while capturing upside within call OI concentration area.
Outperforms: Moderate upside that pushes through short gamma areas but stays below major call-wall resistance at $260.
Underperforms: Weak print or gap-down that brings price toward max pain (~$232.50).

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Earnings/guidance can produce a directional gap larger than the 18d EM (±$19.95); defined-risk structures mitigate but don't eliminate this.
!IV crush: Term structure shows a clear kink to 46.8% at 18d — expect ~10 vol point reversion post-event which penalizes long volatility trades.
!Liquidity: Options market is liquid overall (Total OI 4,291,864; active volume 744,217) but some strikes (wide bid-asks on far OTM) show thinness — prefer strikes with visible OI (240, 245, 235, 250).
!Sizing: Because of pinning and dealer gamma, size directional plays smaller; premium selling can be sized larger but keep contingency for >EM gaps.
!Flow concentration risk: Heavy institutional call flow (e.g., $190/$220) can accelerate upside moves quickly and may overwhelm dealer hedges in fast markets.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory at the 18d node (2026-05-01 ATM 46.8%) — a pre-print pop reduces premium selling edge.
?Volume/flow into near-spot strikes $240/$235 (unusual activity already present: large 04-15 and intraday trade counts).
?Price action relative to pin: whether spot holds >$240 pin-concentration or drifts toward max pain $232.50.
?Any corporate pre-announcements or guidance chatter that could create a gap event.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.